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本文為中國電力企業聯合會專職副理事長王志軒在中國能源電力“十三五”成就與“十四五”展望論壇上的主旨演講。

習近平主席(xi)在(zai)9月22日(ri)聯合國(guo)(guo)大(da)會(hui)上(shang)宣布(bu)：“中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)二氧(yang)化碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)力(li)爭于(yu)(yu)2030年(nian)前(qian)(qian)達(da)(da)到峰值，爭取在(zai)2060年(nian)前(qian)(qian)實(shi)現(xian)碳(tan)中(zhong)和”（以(yi)下簡稱新NDC）；10月29日(ri)中(zhong)共(gong)中(zhong)央十(shi)九屆五中(zhong)全(quan)會(hui)通過的《中(zhong)共(gong)中(zhong)央關于(yu)(yu)制(zhi)訂(ding)國(guo)(guo)民經(jing)濟(ji)和社會(hui)發(fa)展第十(shi)四個五年(nian)規劃和二O三五年(nian)遠(yuan)景目標(biao)的建議》（以(yi)下簡稱《建議》）第“3”條(tiao)提(ti)(ti)出(chu)“展望二O三五年(nian)……碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)達(da)(da)峰后穩中(zhong)有(you)降”，第“5”條(tiao)提(ti)(ti)出(chu)“堅(jian)(jian)(jian)持系(xi)統觀念……辦好(hao)發(fa)展安全(quan)兩(liang)件大(da)事(shi)，堅(jian)(jian)(jian)持全(quan)國(guo)(guo)一(yi)(yi)盤棋……實(shi)現(xian)發(fa)展質量(liang)、結構(gou)、規模、速度(du)、效益(yi)、安全(quan)相(xiang)統一(yi)(yi)”，第“35”條(tiao)提(ti)(ti)出(chu)“降低(di)(di)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)強度(du)，支持有(you)條(tiao)件的地方(fang)(fang)率先達(da)(da)到碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)峰值，制(zhi)定二O三O年(nian)前(qian)(qian)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)達(da)(da)峰行動方(fang)(fang)案”。以(yi)上(shang)內容及(ji)黨(dang)和國(guo)(guo)家一(yi)(yi)系(xi)列一(yi)(yi)脈相(xiang)承的有(you)關低(di)(di)碳(tan)發(fa)展的理念、目標(biao)、方(fang)(fang)針、政策(ce)，清晰表達(da)(da)了中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)堅(jian)(jian)(jian)定走(zou)低(di)(di)碳(tan)發(fa)展道路為全(quan)球應對(dui)氣候變化貢獻力(li)量(liang)的決心和初心。

習近(jin)平主席宣布新(xin)NDC的(de)(de)70多天以(yi)來(lai)(lai)，這一(yi)承(cheng)諾(nuo)(nuo)已(yi)經在國(guo)際社會產生(sheng)了巨(ju)大(da)反響。中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)承(cheng)諾(nuo)(nuo)將(jiang)重新(xin)改寫近(jin)年來(lai)(lai)一(yi)些國(guo)家(jia)、地區(qu)(qu)及眾多機構在政治、經濟、社會、能(neng)源、環境(jing)等問題上的(de)(de)研究(jiu)結論(lun)。2020年，中(zhong)國(guo)NDC新(xin)承(cheng)諾(nuo)(nuo)將(jiang)與(yu)中(zhong)國(guo)抗擊新(xin)冠肺炎的(de)(de)壯舉一(yi)樣，為人(ren)類發(fa)展史添上濃墨重彩的(de)(de)一(yi)筆。新(xin)NDC是影響世界(jie)、影響全(quan)局(ju)(ju)、影響未來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)大(da)事。只有立足(zu)全(quan)局(ju)(ju)、堅(jian)持系統思維才(cai)能(neng)準確理解和把(ba)握新(xin)NDC和《建(jian)議》的(de)(de)基本精神，把(ba)NDC承(cheng)諾(nuo)(nuo)緊密地與(yu)“開啟全(quan)面(mian)建(jian)設社會主義現代化國(guo)家(jia)新(xin)征”要求(qiu)相融合，才(cai)能(neng)看清一(yi)個(ge)行業(ye)或(huo)地區(qu)(qu)在個(ge)整體(ti)系統中(zhong)的(de)(de)定位和作用，才(cai)能(neng)在全(quan)國(guo)一(yi)盤棋布局(ju)(ju)下(xia)知道(dao)一(yi)個(ge)行業(ye)或(huo)者(zhe)地區(qu)(qu)做(zuo)什么、怎(zen)么做(zuo)。下(xia)面(mian)，結合能(neng)源電力低碳(tan)轉(zhuan)型的(de)(de)特點(dian)我講(jiang)幾(ji)點(dian)個(ge)人(ren)認(ren)識(shi)。

如何看待對碳達峰節點和碳中和的宏觀措施

從實現《巴黎協定》的長(chang)期目(mu)標(biao)看，中國(guo)二氧(yang)化碳(tan)越早達(da)峰、峰值越低、峰值的平臺期越短、峰值后下降速度(du)(du)越快、碳(tan)中和目(mu)標(biao)越早實現，則越有利于2攝(she)氏度(du)(du)甚至1.5攝(she)氏度(du)(du)溫升幅度(du)(du)控制目(mu)標(biao)。但中國(guo)正處于全面建設(she)社(she)會主義現代化國(guo)家新征途中，發(fa)展是(shi)解(jie)決我國(guo)一(yi)切問題(ti)的基礎和關鍵(jian)，碳(tan)達(da)峰與(yu)碳(tan)中和具體(ti)路徑方案設(she)計，要(yao)與(yu)新發(fa)展理念(nian)的系(xi)統要(yao)求相協調。

理論和實踐都證(zheng)明，低碳(tan)發展主要措施是提高單位(wei)產品(pin)能(neng)效、調整產業結構(gou)也(ye)即減少高能(neng)耗產品(pin)的產量、以及能(neng)源結構(gou)向(xiang)低碳(tan)轉型。

提(ti)高產品能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)并改變生活(huo)方(fang)式才(cai)能(neng)(neng)抑(yi)制碳排放(fang)(fang)總體水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)。經(jing)過(guo)幾十(shi)年改革開放(fang)(fang)發(fa)(fa)展，中(zhong)國能(neng)(neng)源、電力、重(zhong)點工業領域的(de)物理(li)能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)顯著提(ti)升，如發(fa)(fa)電、鋼(gang)鐵(tie)、建材、有(you)(you)色金屬等部門主要(yao)產品全生命(ming)周期可比性的(de)產品能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)總體居(ju)于(yu)世界(jie)先進水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)，部分(fen)達(da)(da)到(dao)領先水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)。雖然(ran)中(zhong)國單(dan)位GDP能(neng)(neng)源消耗水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)從(cong)數字(zi)上看(kan)與發(fa)(fa)達(da)(da)國家相比還(huan)有(you)(you)約一(yi)倍的(de)差(cha)距，但這(zhe)主要(yao)反映出的(de)是(shi)經(jing)濟結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)、產業結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)及匯(hui)率(lv)計(ji)算上的(de)差(cha)別而(er)不是(shi)物理(li)能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)的(de)差(cha)別。如采用購買力評價法（PPP）則這(zhe)種差(cha)距明顯縮小甚至(zhi)好(hao)于(yu)某些(xie)發(fa)(fa)達(da)(da)國家。且由于(yu)中(zhong)國正處于(yu)發(fa)(fa)展階段，人均(jun)能(neng)(neng)源消費尤(you)(you)其(qi)(qi)是(shi)生活(huo)用能(neng)(neng)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)仍然(ran)很低，使(shi)(shi)得能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)提(ti)高的(de)同時，能(neng)(neng)源需求量的(de)提(ti)高卻是(shi)同步增長的(de)。中(zhong)國要(yao)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)提(ti)升抑(yi)降低碳排放(fang)(fang)總量，關鍵是(shi)要(yao)優化經(jing)濟結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)和合理(li)提(ti)高人均(jun)生活(huo)用能(neng)(neng)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)(ping)。要(yao)在繼續堅(jian)持節能(neng)(neng)優先的(de)原則下，要(yao)強(qiang)(qiang)化結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)調(diao)整(zheng)對節能(neng)(neng)的(de)貢(gong)獻率(lv)，尤(you)(you)其(qi)(qi)是(shi)強(qiang)(qiang)化通(tong)(tong)過(guo)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)調(diao)整(zheng)節約或減少煤碳的(de)使(shi)(shi)用。

應從(cong)(cong)(cong)全(quan)局(ju)角度考慮產(chan)業(ye)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)移(yi)(yi)對(dui)(dui)碳(tan)(tan)減(jian)排的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)用。發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)家碳(tan)(tan)減(jian)排是在(zai)實現了工業(ye)化(hua)之(zhi)后、工業(ye)用能(neng)(neng)顯著(zhu)減(jian)少(shao)、人均生活水平(ping)顯著(zhu)提高(gao)，以(yi)及與(yu)高(gao)能(neng)(neng)耗、低(di)附加(jia)值產(chan)業(ye)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)移(yi)(yi)出去以(yi)及與(yu)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)低(di)碳(tan)(tan)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)型有(you)(you)直接關(guan)系。而(er)(er)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)高(gao)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)特(te)征，既(ji)與(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)高(gao)碳(tan)(tan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)稟賦有(you)(you)關(guan)，在(zai)很大程度與(yu)承接了大量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)高(gao)載能(neng)(neng)產(chan)業(ye)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)移(yi)(yi)有(you)(you)關(guan)，也(ye)就是說中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)上(shang)升與(yu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)家碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)下降存在(zai)耦合關(guan)系。雖然(ran)這(zhe)種產(chan)業(ye)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)移(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)結果從(cong)(cong)(cong)歷史(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)眼光看(kan)給中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)和(he)世界的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展都帶來(lai)巨大利好，但面向未(wei)來(lai)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)也(ye)能(neng)(neng)繼(ji)續遵循(xun)(xun)這(zhe)一模(mo)式嗎？顯然(ran)，不(bu)論從(cong)(cong)(cong)人類(lei)命運共同(tong)體的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)角度看(kan)，還是從(cong)(cong)(cong)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)自(zi)(zi)身(shen)所處(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展階(jie)段看(kan)，都不(bu)具備(bei)快速(su)產(chan)業(ye)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)移(yi)(yi)條件。從(cong)(cong)(cong)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)自(zi)(zi)身(shen)看(kan)，一個正處(chu)在(zai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)14億(yi)人口大國(guo)(guo)，還需(xu)要(yao)強(qiang)大而(er)(er)高(gao)質量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)業(ye)體系支撐現代(dai)化(hua)目(mu)標實現。而(er)(er)且(qie)從(cong)(cong)(cong)全(quan)球(qiu)來(lai)看(kan)，包括新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)技術(shu)及設備(bei)在(zai)內的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)產(chan)品對(dui)(dui)全(quan)球(qiu)經(jing)濟振興、推(tui)進全(quan)球(qiu)低(di)碳(tan)(tan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展也(ye)有(you)(you)比(bi)較優(you)勢。因此(ci)，從(cong)(cong)(cong)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展規律來(lai)看(kan)，通過減(jian)少(shao)高(gao)載能(neng)(neng)產(chan)品產(chan)量(liang)來(lai)加(jia)快降碳(tan)(tan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)模(mo)式在(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)短(duan)期內難以(yi)達(da)到顯著(zhu)效果。要(yao)從(cong)(cong)(cong)“暢通國(guo)(guo)內大循(xun)(xun)環，促(cu)進國(guo)(guo)內國(guo)(guo)際(ji)雙循(xun)(xun)環”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大思路下，綜合考慮產(chan)業(ye)低(di)碳(tan)(tan)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)型問題。

比(bi)較全球、OECD國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)和中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量，可(ke)以進(jin)一步理解(jie)以上邏輯。2019年，全球、OECD國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)和中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)，人均(jun)(jun)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量分別(bie)為3289、8480、5186千(qian)瓦時，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)是(shi)(shi)(shi)全球平均(jun)(jun)的(de)(de)1.58倍(bei)、是(shi)(shi)(shi)OECD國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)的(de)(de)0.61倍(bei)；但(dan)人均(jun)(jun)生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量分別(bie)為880、2619、733千(qian)瓦時，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)是(shi)(shi)(shi)全球平均(jun)(jun)的(de)(de)0.83倍(bei)，僅是(shi)(shi)(shi)OECD國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)的(de)(de)29%。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)人均(jun)(jun)生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)最高的(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)(shi)福(fu)建省1173千(qian)瓦時，大于1000千(qian)瓦以上的(de)(de)有福(fu)建、北京、浙(zhe)江、上海(hai)。2019年，OECD國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)的(de)(de)工(gong)業、商業、居民(min)(min)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)占比(bi)分別(bie)為31.7%、31.4%、30.9%，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)工(gong)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)占比(bi)67.2%。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)人均(jun)(jun)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量和工(gong)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量比(bi)重(zhong)都(dou)相對較高，而生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量顯著偏(pian)低，說(shuo)明了中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)發展是(shi)(shi)(shi)基于對世界貢獻(xian)的(de)(de)基礎上的(de)(de)、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)產業結(jie)構(gou)調整任務艱難，在(zai)發展方(fang)式上要向大力提(ti)高人民(min)(min)生活水平的(de)(de)方(fang)向轉變。

能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)結(jie)構低碳化(hua)是(shi)(shi)中國低碳轉型的(de)(de)根本性措施(shi)，也是(shi)(shi)迫(po)切的(de)(de)措施(shi)。中國已基本具備(bei)了持續(xu)(xu)大幅(fu)度提(ti)高非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)尤其是(shi)(shi)可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)在(zai)一次(ci)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)中的(de)(de)占比的(de)(de)技術基礎(chu)和產業基礎(chu)。通過持續(xu)(xu)推動電氣(qi)化(hua)，大幅(fu)度提(ti)高非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電能(neng)(neng)在(zai)終端能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費中的(de)(de)比重，會(hui)跨越或(huo)縮短以石(shi)油(you)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)燃煤、燃氣(qi)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)石(shi)油(you)、可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)燃氣(qi)的(de)(de)分段(duan)轉型的(de)(de)時間，完(wan)成碳中和的(de)(de)歷史使(shi)命。

基于(yu)(yu)以(yi)上初步認識(shi)，參考歐盟(meng)及(ji)一(yi)些國(guo)家和(he)(he)地區碳(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)的戰略及(ji)措施，并考慮(lv)到可(ke)再生能(neng)源發(fa)電技(ji)術(shu)進(jin)步趨勢，以(yi)及(ji)對(dui)未來由于(yu)(yu)技(ji)術(shu)發(fa)展對(dui)減碳(tan)成(cheng)本下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)幅度(du)的預期，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)在2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)前實現碳(tan)達峰后，經過(guo)一(yi)段具有波動性峰值(zhi)平(ping)臺期，到2035年(nian)(nian)(nian)達到穩中(zhong)(zhong)有降(jiang)(jiang)，在2050年(nian)(nian)(nian)顯(xian)著下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)，到2060年(nian)(nian)(nian)前實現碳(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)和(he)(he)。

充分認識電力行業在低碳轉型中的使命和作為

第一(yi)(yi)(yi)，要充分認識到，電(dian)(dian)力行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)要堅(jian)持(chi)(chi)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)一(yi)(yi)(yi)盤棋，發揮好電(dian)(dian)力行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)在(zai)(zai)低(di)(di)碳(tan)(tan)發展全(quan)(quan)局中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)作用。不僅是(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)力行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，其他行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)都(dou)應(ying)(ying)在(zai)(zai)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)一(yi)(yi)(yi)盤棋中(zhong)扮(ban)好各(ge)自角(jiao)色。率(lv)(lv)先(xian)碳(tan)(tan)達(da)峰(feng)及碳(tan)(tan)中(zhong)和(he)對(dui)于微觀經濟(ji)(ji)活動(dong)主體(ti)和(he)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)而言(yan)有實質意義(yi)，《建議(yi)》中(zhong)提(ti)出(chu)“支持(chi)(chi)有條(tiao)件(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)地方(fang)率(lv)(lv)先(xian)達(da)到碳(tan)(tan)排放峰(feng)值”，其中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)“條(tiao)件(jian)”是(shi)(shi)指資源(yuan)條(tiao)件(jian)、技術條(tiao)件(jian)、能(neng)效水平、經濟(ji)(ji)水平等綜合分析而來(lai)，而不是(shi)(shi)以經濟(ji)(ji)發達(da)程度(du)來(lai)劃分。率(lv)(lv)先(xian)達(da)峰(feng)需要嚴(yan)格而規范的(de)(de)(de)(de)核算體(ti)系來(lai)保障，避免一(yi)(yi)(yi)個地區(qu)(qu)(qu)實現了低(di)(di)碳(tan)(tan)是(shi)(shi)用另一(yi)(yi)(yi)個地區(qu)(qu)(qu)高碳(tan)(tan)為(wei)代價，且(qie)總體(ti)上增加了社(she)會成本(ben)(ben)；要引(yin)導(dao)鼓勵能(neng)夠促進全(quan)(quan)社(she)會提(ti)前達(da)峰(feng)、降(jiang)低(di)(di)峰(feng)值、減少(shao)成本(ben)(ben)的(de)(de)(de)(de)地區(qu)(qu)(qu)間、行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)間的(de)(de)(de)(de)碳(tan)(tan)轉移——這也(ye)是(shi)(shi)碳(tan)(tan)市場的(de)(de)(de)(de)基本(ben)(ben)原理。因此，對(dui)于一(yi)(yi)(yi)個行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)來(lai)說，不是(shi)(shi)圍繞行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)本(ben)(ben)身而是(shi)(shi)要圍繞全(quan)(quan)社(she)會整體(ti)減碳(tan)(tan)效益最(zui)佳(jia)原則來(lai)布局減碳(tan)(tan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)程度(du)和(he)進程。從人類(lei)文明(ming)史來(lai)看，能(neng)源(yuan)轉型是(shi)(shi)推進人類(lei)文階(jie)段性(xing)演化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)(de)基本(ben)(ben)動(dong)力，對(dui)經濟(ji)(ji)社(she)會的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang)是(shi)(shi)全(quan)(quan)面的(de)(de)(de)(de)，對(dui)生產(chan)方(fang)式(shi)和(he)生活方(fang)式(shi)改變是(shi)(shi)革(ge)命性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)。以低(di)(di)碳(tan)(tan)化(hua)為(wei)目標的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)也(ye)將滲透在(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)生產(chan)、存儲和(he)應(ying)(ying)用的(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)個環節，電(dian)(dian)能(neng)應(ying)(ying)用方(fang)式(shi)也(ye)發生巨大(da)變化(hua)，與經濟(ji)(ji)社(she)會各(ge)領域發生深度(du)融合。這些變化(hua)都(dou)將使“電(dian)(dian)力行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)概念發生變化(hua)，行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)率(lv)(lv)先(xian)達(da)峰(feng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)判斷非(fei)常困難。

從政策、規劃(hua)、標(biao)準(zhun)的(de)制定的(de)科學性和可操作性層面看，針對(dui)(dui)生產對(dui)(dui)象(xiang)和全(quan)國的(de)單(dan)位發電量碳排(pai)放量、針對(dui)(dui)地方(fang)及全(quan)國的(de)電能占(zhan)終端能源(yuan)消費比重、包括(kuo)熱(re)電聯產在(zai)內(nei)的(de)電煤占(zhan)煤炭消費比重、針對(dui)(dui)激勵(li)先(xian)(xian)進淘汰落后的(de)碳總(zong)量等指(zhi)標(biao)等，比行業率先(xian)(xian)達峰的(de)指(zhi)標(biao)更能從全(quan)局角度發揮電力促進低碳發展的(de)作用。

第二，要優(you)先(xian)解決好電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)如何適應大(da)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)接(jie)入后電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)運(yun)(yun)行的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)問題。在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)低碳(tan)轉型(xing)中，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)承(cheng)擔著配置電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)中樞、基礎地位，即(ji)便是(shi)(shi)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)不(bu)直接(jie)接(jie)入電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)，由于(yu)影響了電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)負荷(he)特性(xing)(xing)，對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)也(ye)(ye)有直接(jie)影響。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)主要任(ren)務是(shi)(shi)安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)運(yun)(yun)行及(ji)接(jie)納(na)(na)(na)大(da)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)新(xin)(xin)(xin)再生(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)運(yun)(yun)行的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)首要任(ren)務與大(da)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)接(jie)納(na)(na)(na)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)是(shi)(shi)一(yi)(yi)對對立統(tong)(tong)一(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)矛盾，沒有大(da)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)接(jie)納(na)(na)(na)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)，安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)運(yun)(yun)行實現不(bu)了低碳(tan)轉型(xing)目標(biao)，而(er)安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)運(yun)(yun)行大(da)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)接(jie)納(na)(na)(na)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)也(ye)(ye)沒有意義。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)運(yun)(yun)行與新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)更多地接(jie)入電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)呈非線性(xing)(xing)增長關系(xi)。這(zhe)是(shi)(shi)因為，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能占終(zhong)端能源(yuan)消(xiao)費比重越(yue)(yue)(yue)高，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)對經(jing)濟(ji)社會的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)性(xing)(xing)就(jiu)越(yue)(yue)(yue)重要；而(er)隨(sui)(sui)機性(xing)(xing)、波動性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)接(jie)入電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)越(yue)(yue)(yue)多，對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影響就(jiu)越(yue)(yue)(yue)大(da)；同時，由于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)中具有轉動慣量的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)比例減少(shao)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)性(xing)(xing)下(xia)降。要解決好這(zhe)一(yi)(yi)矛盾，政(zheng)府、社會及(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)各主體(ti)都應對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)功能、作用的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)變化有新(xin)(xin)(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)認識。在(zai)宏觀層(ceng)面上(shang)(shang)，要統(tong)(tong)籌(chou)好智能電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)、能源(yuan)互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)、工業(ye)物聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)、通訊網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)、交通網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)等多網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)融合發展(zhan)；在(zai)能源(yuan)層(ceng)面上(shang)(shang)，要統(tong)(tong)籌(chou)好能源(yuan)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)（尤(you)其是(shi)(shi)配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)）、儲能協調發展(zhan)，做(zuo)好規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)并及(ji)時評估修(xiu)訂；在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)層(ceng)面上(shang)(shang)，要加強電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)安(an)(an)(an)(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)穩(wen)(wen)(wen)定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)理論、技(ji)術(shu)和(he)商業(ye)模(mo)式創新(xin)(xin)(xin)、與時俱進(jin)修(xiu)訂技(ji)術(shu)標(biao)準、分階段(duan)提出政(zheng)策(ce)措(cuo)(cuo)施和(he)改革措(cuo)(cuo)施。在(zai)低碳(tan)轉型(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)潮之中，技(ji)術(shu)發展(zhan)日新(xin)(xin)(xin)月異(yi)，經(jing)濟(ji)社會矛盾隨(sui)(sui)時會有重大(da)變化，雖(sui)然低碳(tan)轉型(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方向是(shi)(shi)明確的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，但政(zheng)策(ce)措(cuo)(cuo)施是(shi)(shi)需要依據變化的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情況(kuang)及(ji)時調整，防止各種技(ji)術(shu)性(xing)(xing)、政(zheng)策(ce)性(xing)(xing)、產業(ye)性(xing)(xing)“鎖定(ding)”。

第(di)三，解(jie)(jie)決好煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)問題。如(ru)果(guo)說(shuo)用兩個字來(lai)概括中國(guo)(guo)低(di)碳發展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)道路、措施及(ji)效果(guo)的(de)(de)(de)話，“減煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)”二(er)字不(bu)出其右，同(tong)理，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)低(di)碳發展(zhan)核心是“減煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”三字。但是，不(bu)分(fen)青紅皂白、不(bu)分(fen)先(xian)后、不(bu)分(fen)地(di)區、不(bu)計(ji)代(dai)價(jia)(jia)，一減了之、越快越好是行不(bu)通的(de)(de)(de)！中國(guo)(guo)經過(guo)了幾十年(nian)改革開放發展(zhan)，終于(yu)(yu)站到(dao)了全(quan)球電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)總體(ti)先(xian)進、部分(fen)領先(xian)的(de)(de)(de)行列，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)在(zai)維護電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)安全(quan)穩(wen)定、提高能(neng)源(yuan)效率、加強(qiang)環境(jing)污染(ran)控制、強(qiang)化熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯(lian)產(chan)(chan)解(jie)(jie)決全(quan)局(ju)(ju)性煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)煙型(xing)污染(ran)方(fang)面做出了巨大貢獻。2019年(nian)，在(zai)運(yun)(yun)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容量(liang)10.4億(yi)千(qian)瓦、平均運(yun)(yun)行12年(nian)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)年(nian)齡(ling)、平均年(nian)運(yun)(yun)行小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)4429、燃(ran)用23億(yi)噸原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)（約占(zhan)全(quan)國(guo)(guo)原(yuan)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)消費量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)60%）、提供中國(guo)(guo)約62%電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)、80%以上機(ji)組(zu)(zu)容量(liang)大于(yu)(yu)300MW、43.7%的(de)(de)(de)熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯(lian)產(chan)(chan)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)……這就是中國(guo)(guo)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)作(zuo)用的(de)(de)(de)現實(shi)寫(xie)照(zhao)。而我(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網只有不(bu)到(dao)5%的(de)(de)(de)靈活性電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)（燃(ran)機(ji)）、燃(ran)氣對外依存度約45%且(qie)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)居(ju)高不(bu)下，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)礦格(ge)局(ju)(ju)、煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)炭洗選、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網格(ge)局(ju)(ju)、鐵路、港口、工業布(bu)局(ju)(ju)、能(neng)源(yuan)運(yun)(yun)輸、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)流向、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站布(bu)局(ju)(ju)、水資源(yuan)配置、省域或地(di)域經濟支撐等(deng)都(dou)與煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)有直(zhi)接關(guan)系(xi)(xi)。在(zai)中國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)一些省，煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利用小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)已經低(di)于(yu)(yu)2000小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，但對當地(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)來(lai)說(shuo)仍不(bu)能(neng)棄用。因此，我(wo)們要認真研(yan)究(jiu)現有的(de)(de)(de)年(nian)青的(de)(de)(de)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)如(ru)何發揮好在(zai)能(neng)源(yuan)轉型(xing)中的(de)(de)(de)靈活性電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)、熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯(lian)產(chan)(chan)供熱、生物質(zhi)能(neng)聯(lian)合(he)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、在(zai)區域或者產(chan)(chan)業循環中的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)量(liang)、物質(zhi)、價(jia)(jia)值流的(de)(de)(de)綜合(he)作(zuo)用上；要嚴格(ge)限制單純(chun)的(de)(de)(de)以提供電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)為目的(de)(de)(de)純(chun)凝(ning)汽式煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)(zu)；同(tong)時(shi)(shi)，為煤(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)有序退(tui)出做好法規、政策、規劃、標準(zhun)等(deng)方(fang)法的(de)(de)(de)統(tong)(tong)籌(chou)研(yan)究(jiu)和準(zhun)備工作(zuo)。

隨著電(dian)(dian)力低碳轉型(xing)的(de)(de)(de)深入推(tui)進，煤電(dian)(dian)在統籌(chou)考慮中(zhong)，逐步(bu)、有(you)序退出是(shi)實現(xian)中(zhong)國(guo)碳中(zhong)和愿景的(de)(de)(de)必(bi)然，也是(shi)歷史必(bi)然，但(dan)在最終退出過(guo)程中(zhong)，根據電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統安全(quan)穩(wen)定運行和關鍵熱源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)需要，煤電(dian)(dian)仍然會發(fa)揮其(qi)靈活性電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)、電(dian)(dian)力安全(quan)備(bei)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)作用(yong)。

第四(si)，解決(jue)好儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)問(wen)題。儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)展的(de)(de)好壞決(jue)定了能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電力(li)低碳轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型的(de)(de)廣(guang)度(du)、深度(du)、進(jin)度(du)甚至(zhi)成敗。現有低碳目標、愿景(jing)、計劃，都是建立(li)在(zai)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技(ji)術(shu)的(de)(de)具有突破性(xing)(xing)發(fa)展和經濟(ji)上(shang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)夠用得起(qi)的(de)(de)基礎上(shang)的(de)(de)。儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)大規模(mo)應用，使傳統的(de)(de)發(fa)輸配供用電能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)單向(xiang)(xiang)、線性(xing)(xing)配置(zhi)成為環狀多向(xiang)(xiang)配置(zhi)，促進(jin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、電力(li)、物質間雙向(xiang)(xiang)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)換，使電氣化與(yu)經濟(ji)社(she)會(hui)深度(du)融(rong)合。儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)展方興未艾，技(ji)術(shu)及商業模(mo)式層出(chu)不窮(qiong)，為未來展現了美好的(de)(de)前景(jing)。但是，儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)特點也(ye)決(jue)定了在(zai)應用對象(xiang)、條件(jian)、安全、技(ji)術(shu)、商業模(mo)式等方面都存在(zai)系統性(xing)(xing)和綜合性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)問(wen)題，而這(zhe)正體現出(chu)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)不可能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)脫離新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展的(de)(de)進(jin)程(cheng)、電力(li)系統需求、經濟(ji)社(she)會(hui)的(de)(de)需求而獨立(li)發(fa)展。相信通過(guo)“十四(si)五”的(de)(de)技(ji)術(shu)發(fa)展和政策完(wan)善，儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)態勢會(hui)更加明朗，在(zai)促進(jin)低碳轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型中發(fa)揮重要作(zuo)用。