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中(zhong)(zhong)國宣布力(li)爭2030年(nian)前實(shi)(shi)現碳(tan)達峰、2060年(nian)前實(shi)(shi)現碳(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)和“雙(shuang)碳(tan)愿景”，對能源行(xing)業特別是電(dian)力(li)行(xing)業產生重大影(ying)響(xiang)。火電(dian)/煤電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)增速，是衡量(liang)發(fa)電(dian)行(xing)業碳(tan)排放量(liang)變化的關(guan)鍵指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)。這個(ge)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)應該納入電(dian)力(li)行(xing)業中(zhong)(zhong)長期規劃，分解到(dao)年(nian)度，落(luo)實(shi)(shi)到(dao)地(di)區，實(shi)(shi)施有效控制，加快推(tui)動綠色轉(zhuan)型。

實施火電/煤電發電量增速控制，是實現對煤電項目和煤炭消費控制承諾的必然要求

為達到嚴(yan)控(kong)煤(mei)(mei)炭消費(fei)和煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)(mu)(mu)的目(mu)(mu)(mu)標，必須(xu)實(shi)施對(dui)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)控(kong)制。2021年(nian)4月22日，在“領導人(ren)氣候(hou)峰(feng)會(hui)”上，我國支(zhi)持有(you)(you)條(tiao)件(jian)的重點行(xing)業(ye)率(lv)先達峰(feng)，并(bing)明確提(ti)出“中(zhong)(zhong)國將嚴(yan)控(kong)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)(mu)(mu)，‘十四五’時期嚴(yan)控(kong)煤(mei)(mei)炭消費(fei)增(zeng)長、‘十五五’時期逐步(bu)減少”。這意(yi)味著，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業(ye)很有(you)(you)可能有(you)(you)條(tiao)件(jian)率(lv)先碳(tan)達峰(feng)，在碳(tan)達峰(feng)前后一(yi)段時間(jian)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機仍有(you)(you)增(zeng)長空間(jian)，但碳(tan)達峰(feng)一(yi)定(ding)(ding)是以火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)穩定(ding)(ding)至零值為主要標志(zhi)。中(zhong)(zhong)國政府宣布(bu)的“十五五”時期煤(mei)(mei)炭消費(fei)逐步(bu)減少的承(cheng)諾，將會(hui)加速(su)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業(ye)碳(tan)達峰(feng)、碳(tan)中(zhong)(zhong)和進程，因此(ci)，對(dui)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)目(mu)(mu)(mu)標的控(kong)制更具有(you)(you)必然性。

同時(shi)(shi)(shi)，實(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)(shi)火(huo)電/煤電發電量增(zeng)速控(kong)(kong)制，是電力(li)行(xing)業落實(shi)(shi)(shi)我國(guo)(guo)(guo)綠色轉型戰略(lve)(lve)思想(xiang)的(de)具體體現(xian)。我國(guo)(guo)(guo)提(ti)出(chu)(chu)(chu)的(de)未來十年(nian)煤炭消費先達峰后遞減承諾，是實(shi)(shi)(shi)現(xian)“雙碳愿景(jing)”對(dui)(dui)煤炭行(xing)業的(de)進一步具體要求(qiu)，兩者都體現(xian)出(chu)(chu)(chu)了分(fen)階段實(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)(shi)的(de)戰略(lve)(lve)構想(xiang)，抓(zhua)住(zhu)了綠色轉型的(de)主要矛盾，為工業結構調整和平穩(wen)過(guo)渡爭(zheng)取時(shi)(shi)(shi)間空(kong)間。同時(shi)(shi)(shi)，我國(guo)(guo)(guo)對(dui)(dui)煤炭消費大戶煤電產業給予高度關(guan)注，提(ti)出(chu)(chu)(chu)了“嚴控(kong)(kong)煤電項(xiang)目(mu)”的(de)明確具體的(de)要求(qiu)。為落實(shi)(shi)(shi)這一要求(qiu)，首先必須對(dui)(dui)煤電發電量增(zeng)速實(shi)(shi)(shi)施(shi)(shi)有(you)效控(kong)(kong)制，并根據我國(guo)(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)情，充(chong)分(fen)體現(xian)分(fen)階段控(kong)(kong)制戰略(lve)(lve)思維。

“十三五”電力行業運行情況，進一步凸顯了實施火電/煤電發電量增速控制的必要性和緊迫性

火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速(su)(su)，是決定發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)非化石/可再(zai)生(sheng)能源(yuan)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)地位的(de)主(zhu)(zhu)要因素。火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)過快增(zeng)速(su)(su)，明(ming)顯(xian)加強(qiang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)地位。根據(ju)中電(dian)(dian)(dian)聯公開數據(ju)分析，“十三五”期間(jian)各年度，在(zai)(zai)某(mou)個臨(lin)界值分割的(de)不同(tong)區(qu)間(jian)，發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)量(liang)(liang)(liang)非化石/可再(zai)生(sheng)能源(yuan)占比(bi)與火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速(su)(su)存在(zai)(zai)反(fan)向關(guan)系。

在2017年(nian)和(he)2018年(nian)兩年(nian)，當(dang)發電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為7.1%和(he)8.4%時(shi)，火電/煤(mei)(mei)電發電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為5.7%/5.9%和(he)7.2%/7.3%，而(er)非化石(shi)/可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源發電增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)占比分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為43.2%/35%和(he)40%/31.5%，沒有(you)達(da)到(dao)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)主體地位。在2016年(nian)、2019年(nian)和(he)2020年(nian)三年(nian)，當(dang)發電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為4.9%、4.8%和(he)4%時(shi)，火電/煤(mei)(mei)電發電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為2.0%/1.4%、2.1%/1.6%和(he)2.2%/1.8%，而(er)非化石(shi)/可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源發電增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)占比分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為69.9%/55.1%、69.1%/52.7%和(he)62.8%/56.9%，達(da)到(dao)增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)主體地位。

火電(dian)、煤電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量增(zeng)(zeng)速控(kong)制(zhi)，首(shou)先(xian)直接影響發(fa)電(dian)量增(zeng)(zeng)量非(fei)化石能源對化石能源的替代進(jin)程(cheng)，同時影響碳達峰(feng)、碳中和的進(jin)程(cheng)。對這(zhe)一(yi)關鍵(jian)指標的有效控(kong)制(zhi)，有利于穩(wen)定預期(qi)、提振信(xin)心(xin)、樹(shu)立良好的國際形象。

構建科學的火電/煤電增速目標控制制度，加快推進電力行業綠色轉型進程

盡管電(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)業實現“雙碳(tan)目標”的時間節點與我國實現“雙碳(tan)愿景”時間節點會(hui)不一(yi)致，但(dan)是(shi)電(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)業碳(tan)達峰的主要標志，應(ying)該(gai)(gai)是(shi)火電(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)速穩定至零值(zhi)。而在電(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)業碳(tan)中和(he)階段，火電(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)速應(ying)該(gai)(gai)逐(zhu)漸遞(di)減穩定至目標值(zhi)（包括(kuo)絕對值(zhi)和(he)結構相對值(zhi)）。抓住(zhu)火電(dian)(dian)/煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)速的控(kong)制，就等于抓住(zhu)了控(kong)制電(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)業碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)的“牛鼻子(zi)”。

構建科學(xue)有效(xiao)的(de)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)控制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)度，有利于形成強有力(li)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行業綠(lv)色轉型倒逼機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。“十(shi)三(san)五”期間發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)數據表(biao)明，經濟過快(kuai)(kuai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)或者發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)過快(kuai)(kuai)增長(chang)，是導致火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)過快(kuai)(kuai)增長(chang)的(de)主要因素，未來(lai)這種(zhong)現象還可能(neng)(neng)出現。這種(zhong)現象的(de)根本原因在于綠(lv)色電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)不足，但直接原因很容易歸結于火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)（碳排放(fang)）控制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)乏力(li)方面。實施(shi)對火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)的(de)控制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，主動騰出增量(liang)(liang)和存量(liang)(liang)空間，有利于加(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)構建新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統，倒逼形成綠(lv)色能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)供(gong)應安全體(ti)系(xi)（包括(kuo)政策(ce)和市場(chang)），促進(jin)非(fei)化石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)/可再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。加(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)推(tui)進(jin)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增速(su)與火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)脫(tuo)鉤，防(fang)止把火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)保電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應安全與綠(lv)色轉型發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)對立起(qi)來(lai)，構建火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增速(su)遞減下的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)安全保障體(ti)系(xi)。

將火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)速，納入電(dian)(dian)(dian)力規劃和經濟責(ze)任制(zhi)(zhi)，作為約(yue)束性(xing)和績效指標實施控制(zhi)(zhi)。以(yi)(yi)規劃期火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)速線性(xing)遞減(jian)控制(zhi)(zhi)為主(zhu)，以(yi)(yi)年(nian)度區(qu)間限制(zhi)(zhi)為輔。國家分(fen)年(nian)度公(gong)布年(nian)度值和累計(ji)值，納入經濟責(ze)任審計(ji)，并對火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)/煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)速控制(zhi)(zhi)政策和市場、綠(lv)色能(neng)源供(gong)應安全體系以(yi)(yi)及(ji)低碳清潔能(neng)源結構調整等有效性(xing)評價(jia)。