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●2023年年底，全國(guo)可再(zai)生(sheng)能源發電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機規模達14.5億千瓦(wa)，占全國(guo)發電總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機的比例(li)超(chao)過50%，歷史性超(chao)過火電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機

●2023年新增(zeng)新能(neng)源發電裝(zhuang)機(ji)2.9億千瓦(wa)，超過全國電源裝(zhuang)機(ji)新增(zeng)規模的(de)80%

●我國風電(dian)、太陽(yang)能發電(dian)裝機規模已(yi)多年(nian)位居世界第一，利用率(lv)水平連(lian)續五年(nian)保持在95%以上

根(gen)據(ju)2024年全國能(neng)(neng)(neng)源工作會(hui)議公(gong)布的數據(ju)，2023年年底，我國可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源發(fa)電裝(zhuang)機規(gui)模達到14.5億千瓦(wa)，占全國發(fa)電總(zong)裝(zhuang)機的比例超過50%，歷史性超過火電裝(zhuang)機。這在推動能(neng)(neng)(neng)源電力(li)轉型、構建(jian)新型電力(li)系(xi)統、建(jian)設新型能(neng)(neng)(neng)源體系(xi)、實現“雙碳”目(mu)標(biao)的過程中，寫下了濃墨重彩的一筆。

近(jin)年(nian)(nian)來，我國能源(yuan)清潔低碳轉(zhuan)型加速：從(cong)(cong)可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)發(fa)電裝(zhuang)機規模(mo)來看，從(cong)(cong)1億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)增(zeng)長到5億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)用(yong)了11年(nian)(nian)時間(jian)，從(cong)(cong)5億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)到10億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)用(yong)了6年(nian)(nian)時間(jian)，而從(cong)(cong)10億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)到14.5億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)僅用(yong)了2年(nian)(nian)時間(jian)；從(cong)(cong)我國可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)發(fa)電裝(zhuang)機占比來看，從(cong)(cong)30%提(ti)(ti)升到40%用(yong)了6年(nian)(nian)時間(jian)，從(cong)(cong)40%提(ti)(ti)升到50%僅用(yong)了3年(nian)(nian)時間(jian)；我國風電、太陽能發(fa)電裝(zhuang)機均已多年(nian)(nian)位居(ju)世界(jie)第(di)一，利用(yong)率(lv)水平連續(xu)五(wu)年(nian)(nian)保持在95%以上(shang)。我國成為全球可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)發(fa)展的重(zhong)要推動者(zhe)、持續(xu)引領者(zhe)和高質量貢獻者(zhe)。

我國可再生能源發電裝機占比過半，從以下幾方面反映了我國電力系統發展的特點和趨勢：

我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結(jie)(jie)構清潔(jie)低(di)碳轉型取得了(le)階段性(xing)成效。近日(ri)國(guo)家能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)局公(gong)布的全(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力工業統計(ji)數據顯示(shi)，2023年(nian)全(quan)國(guo)新增新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)2.9億千瓦(wa)，超過(guo)2023年(nian)年(nian)初全(quan)國(guo)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)工作會(hui)議預計(ji)規(gui)模（1.6億千瓦(wa)）的1.8倍，超過(guo)全(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機(ji)新增規(gui)模的80%，并且自2017年(nian)以來(lai)持續保持新增電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機(ji)主體地位，有力地推(tui)動了(le)我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結(jie)(jie)構加(jia)快向(xiang)清潔(jie)低(di)碳方向(xiang)轉型。同時，相對于水電(dian)(dian)(dian)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，在稟賦(fu)特(te)性(xing)上分布更為全(quan)面的新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，也推(tui)動著全(quan)國(guo)各(ge)省(sheng)(sheng)份(fen)(fen)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結(jie)(jie)構加(jia)速轉型。以2022年(nian)為例，全(quan)國(guo)可(ke)再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)占(zhan)比(bi)達(da)(da)到(dao)45.7%，占(zhan)比(bi)超過(guo)50%的省(sheng)(sheng)份(fen)(fen)已經達(da)(da)到(dao)11個(ge)；新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在23個(ge)省(sheng)(sheng)份(fen)(fen)已成為第一大(da)、第二大(da)裝(zhuang)機(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，在青海、甘肅(su)、河北等省(sheng)(sheng)份(fen)(fen)，新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)占(zhan)比(bi)超過(guo)50%。

風光等可(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)源(yuan)高質量(liang)(liang)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)基礎(chu)進一步夯(hang)實(shi)。國家《清潔能(neng)源(yuan)消納行(xing)動(dong)(dong)計劃（2018～2020年(nian)）》實(shi)施以(yi)來(lai)，政府主管部(bu)門、發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)企業、電(dian)(dian)網(wang)企業、用能(neng)企業緊密配合、聯合推動(dong)(dong)，在技術和政策(ce)領域多措并舉(ju)、共同(tong)(tong)施策(ce)，取得了全國新能(neng)源(yuan)利用率水(shui)平連續(xu)(xu)(xu)五年(nian)保持在95%以(yi)上的優(you)異成績。這對實(shi)現新能(neng)源(yuan)應發(fa)(fa)盡(jin)發(fa)(fa)、推動(dong)(dong)量(liang)(liang)率協同(tong)(tong)起(qi)到了關鍵(jian)支撐作用，也為新能(neng)源(yuan)進入躍升(sheng)式發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)階段提供(gong)了豐富有效可(ke)(ke)借(jie)鑒的經(jing)驗(yan)。這些經(jing)驗(yan)主要包括：持續(xu)(xu)(xu)加快(kuai)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)建設(she)(she)，持續(xu)(xu)(xu)提升(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)資源(yuan)關鍵(jian)樞紐(niu)平臺優(you)化(hua)配置(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)力(li)(li)；持續(xu)(xu)(xu)推動(dong)(dong)靈活性資源(yuan)建設(she)(she)，不斷提升(sheng)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統綜合調節(jie)能(neng)力(li)(li)；持續(xu)(xu)(xu)優(you)化(hua)系(xi)統調度運行(xing)，提升(sheng)源(yuan)網(wang)荷儲協同(tong)(tong)互動(dong)(dong)水(shui)平；加快(kuai)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市場建設(she)(she)，推動(dong)(dong)新能(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)在更大范圍內配置(zhi)(zhi)。

我國新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)建(jian)設(she)加速推進。大規(gui)模高比(bi)例可再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)并(bing)網(wang)，特別是風電(dian)(dian)(dian)、光伏發電(dian)(dian)(dian)等新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)并(bing)網(wang)，對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)規(gui)劃建(jian)設(she)、運行管理和轉(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)升(sheng)級產生了(le)廣泛而(er)深刻的(de)(de)(de)影響。我國構建(jian)清潔(jie)低碳、安全(quan)充(chong)裕、經(jing)濟高效、供需協(xie)同(tong)、靈活智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)，需要加大力(li)(li)度應對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)子(zi)化程度不斷加深帶來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)穩(wen)定問題、同(tong)步電(dian)(dian)(dian)機比(bi)重(zhong)持(chi)續減小帶來(lai)的(de)(de)(de)慣(guan)性下降(jiang)挑(tiao)戰以及(ji)伴隨消(xiao)納新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量形成的(de)(de)(de)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)成本疏導問題等，全(quan)力(li)(li)攻關電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)穩(wen)定機理、故障防御、調度控(kong)制等核心技(ji)術，創新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)性解決“雙高”特征下的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量供需時空不均衡(heng)難題，順應數字化智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)化時代發展(zhan)趨勢，打造(zao)數智(zhi)化堅(jian)強電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)，推動傳統(tong)(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)轉(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)升(sheng)級為新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)，在發展(zhan)中充(chong)分解決清潔(jie)低碳轉(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)過程中遇到的(de)(de)(de)問題。

氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)候天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)敏(min)感型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)發(fa)展壓力(li)增(zeng)(zeng)大(da)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)中水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)等氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)候天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)敏(min)感型電(dian)(dian)(dian)源比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)的(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)大(da)，疊加空調(diao)負(fu)荷(he)(he)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)持續提升，使電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)平衡(heng)面臨著源荷(he)(he)兩側雙重(zhong)不(bu)確(que)定性(xing)(xing)加劇的(de)(de)挑戰(zhan)。其中，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)出(chu)力(li)易受豐枯季影(ying)響，而我國(guo)不(bu)具備(bei)調(diao)節能力(li)的(de)(de)徑(jing)流(liu)式水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站裝(zhuang)機占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)偏(pian)高。以(yi)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)大(da)省四川為例，具備(bei)年及以(yi)上(shang)(shang)調(diao)節性(xing)(xing)能的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站裝(zhuang)機占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)不(bu)到15%。而新能源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)天(tian)然具有強隨機波(bo)動(dong)性(xing)(xing)、弱系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)支(zhi)撐性(xing)(xing)，在“極熱無風(feng)”“晚峰(feng)無光(guang)”等氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)象條件下，其出(chu)力(li)波(bo)動(dong)幅度大(da)，系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)平衡(heng)難(nan)度大(da)。據統(tong)(tong)(tong)計，國(guo)家電(dian)(dian)(dian)網經營區新能源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)日最大(da)功率波(bo)動(dong)已突破2億(yi)千瓦，這對電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)頂(ding)峰(feng)調(diao)峰(feng)資源優(you)化配置、系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)充裕性(xing)(xing)水(shui)平保障提出(chu)更高要求(qiu)，根本上(shang)(shang)要求(qiu)統(tong)(tong)(tong)籌好新能源與(yu)常規能源發(fa)展，推(tui)動(dong)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)與(yu)新能源電(dian)(dian)(dian)源、新能源電(dian)(dian)(dian)源與(yu)調(diao)節電(dian)(dian)(dian)源實現(xian)優(you)化組合，持續提升電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)候彈(dan)性(xing)(xing)、安全(quan)韌性(xing)(xing)、調(diao)節柔(rou)性(xing)(xing)，確(que)保傳統(tong)(tong)(tong)能源退出(chu)建立在新能源安全(quan)可靠替(ti)代的(de)(de)基礎上(shang)(shang)。

未(wei)來(lai)可(ke)再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開發(fa)利用的(de)模式更(geng)加(jia)(jia)立體(ti)多(duo)元(yuan)。從水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)來(lai)看，常規(gui)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)要加(jia)(jia)速從電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量供應為(wei)主向兼具頂(ding)峰調峰能(neng)力(li)方向轉型，以水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)綜(zong)合(he)開發(fa)、存量水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站擴機、流域梯級(ji)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)建設等(deng)(deng)(deng)為(wei)未(wei)來(lai)發(fa)展趨勢。同時，抽水(shui)(shui)(shui)蓄能(neng)因其(qi)在保障(zhang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)安全、促進新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消納、提升運行性(xing)能(neng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)方面的(de)突出優勢，近(jin)年來(lai)成為(wei)水(shui)(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)規(gui)劃建設重點。從新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)來(lai)看，我國陸(lu)上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、海(hai)上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)等(deng)(deng)(deng)開發(fa)類型都已進入“平(ping)價”時代，太陽能(neng)光(guang)熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成本也在持續(xu)下降(jiang)，海(hai)上(shang)光(guang)伏被(bei)多(duo)地(di)納入發(fa)展規(gui)劃，分布式光(guang)伏發(fa)展更(geng)是(shi)全面鋪開。未(wei)來(lai)，“集分陸(lu)海(hai)”并舉趨勢將持續(xu)加(jia)(jia)強。同時，可(ke)再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)制(zhi)氫（氨、甲烷、甲醇(chun)、合(he)成燃料等(deng)(deng)(deng)）、可(ke)再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)直接供熱(re)等(deng)(deng)(deng)利用方式持續(xu)開拓，為(wei)實(shi)現可(ke)再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)多(duo)元(yuan)化消納提供了有力(li)支撐。

展望未來(lai)，以風光為(wei)代(dai)(dai)(dai)表的(de)(de)可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)將(jiang)逐步從裝機主體向(xiang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量主體過渡，對傳統能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)替(ti)代(dai)(dai)(dai)逐步從增(zeng)量替(ti)代(dai)(dai)(dai)向(xiang)存量替(ti)代(dai)(dai)(dai)過渡，進(jin)(jin)入(ru)(ru)躍升式發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展的(de)(de)快軌(gui)。按照2024年(nian)(nian)全(quan)國能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)工(gong)作會議預計(ji)，今年(nian)(nian)全(quan)國新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機規模(mo)(mo)將(jiang)達2億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，累計(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機規模(mo)(mo)將(jiang)突(tu)破12億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)，即提前6年(nian)(nian)實現(xian)了《國家(jia)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展改(gai)革委國家(jia)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)局關(guan)于促進(jin)(jin)新(xin)(xin)時(shi)(shi)代(dai)(dai)(dai)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)高(gao)質量發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展實施方案的(de)(de)通知》提出的(de)(de)“2030年(nian)(nian)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機規模(mo)(mo)達到12億(yi)(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)以上”目標。伴(ban)隨(sui)著“沙戈荒”大型風電(dian)(dian)(dian)光伏基地、分布式新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)以及(ji)海上新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)開發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)，實現(xian)風光為(wei)代(dai)(dai)(dai)表的(de)(de)可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量高(gao)效消納(na)成為(wei)重中(zhong)之重。這更加(jia)需要(yao)我們(men)在建設數智化堅強電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的(de)(de)過程中(zhong)，推動電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統源(yuan)網(wang)荷儲各環節(jie)協同發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展，持續提升新(xin)(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統綜合調節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力，不(bu)斷夯實筑牢“全(quan)網(wang)統籌、保(bao)量穩率(lv)”量率(lv)協同創新(xin)(xin)理念，及(ji)時(shi)(shi)推動合理利(li)用(yong)率(lv)考核管控機制(zhi)出臺，同時(shi)(shi)也需要(yao)進(jin)(jin)一(yi)(yi)步統籌可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)用(yong)和非電(dian)(dian)(dian)利(li)用(yong)，科學有序(xu)實現(xian)跨能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)品種調節(jie)資源(yuan)引(yin)入(ru)(ru)，共同夯實可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)高(gao)質量發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展的(de)(de)軟硬件基礎，走出一(yi)(yi)條具有中(zhong)國特色的(de)(de)可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)高(gao)質量發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展之路。

（作者系(xi)國網(wang)能源研(yan)究院有限公司能源戰(zhan)略與規劃研(yan)究所(suo)專(zhuan)家(jia)）