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內容提要：碳中和將深度改變未來能源系統，碳中和愿景下中國能源轉型的三大趨勢：一是能源系統電氣化，到2050年一次能源電能轉化的比重和電能占終端能源消費的比重預計將分別提高到80%和60%左右；二是電力系統低碳化，預計非化石能源發電比重將由當前的三分之一提高到2050年的84%-90%；三是能源電力系統去中心化，能源開發利用方式將由集中式轉向分布式，能源系統形態將發生深刻變革。

碳(tan)(tan)中(zhong)和(he)愿景下能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)型的(de)(de)(de)核(he)心是(shi)零碳(tan)(tan)、低碳(tan)(tan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)對高(gao)(gao)碳(tan)(tan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)逐步替代，是(shi)非(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費比重(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)大幅度(du)(du)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)，這(zhe)將深度(du)(du)改(gai)(gai)變(bian)未來能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)。由于(yu)非(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)主要是(shi)通過轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)為電能(neng)(neng)供終端使用(yong)，非(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費比重(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)必然會提(ti)高(gao)(gao)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)電氣(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水平：一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian)，一(yi)(yi)次能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電能(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)(de)比重(zhong)(zhong)趨(qu)(qu)于(yu)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)；另一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian)，電能(neng)(neng)占(zhan)終端能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費的(de)(de)(de)比重(zhong)(zhong)趨(qu)(qu)于(yu)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)。對于(yu)電力系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)而言，非(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費比重(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)大幅度(du)(du)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)則意味著電源(yuan)(yuan)結構(gou)發(fa)生深度(du)(du)改(gai)(gai)變(bian)，非(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電比重(zhong)(zhong)將在(zai)電力系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)中(zhong)逐步占(zhan)據主導地位。此(ci)外，考慮到非(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)尤其是(shi)風能(neng)(neng)、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)等新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)分散性和(he)間歇性特征，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電力系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)形態也必將發(fa)生深刻變(bian)革，需(xu)要集中(zhong)式與(yu)分布式并舉開發(fa)利用(yong)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)。因(yin)此(ci)，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)電氣(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)、電力系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)低碳(tan)(tan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)和(he)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電力系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)去(qu)中(zhong)心化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)是(shi)碳(tan)(tan)中(zhong)和(he)愿景下能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)型的(de)(de)(de)三大趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)，也是(shi)三大必由之路(lu)。

一、碳中和愿景下中國能源轉型趨勢之一：能源系統電氣化

過(guo)(guo)去(qu)二十年(nian)間，隨著經濟社會快(kuai)(kuai)速發展、城市化進程加速和(he)科技水(shui)平不(bu)斷進步，中國的電氣化水(shui)平穩步提(ti)(ti)(ti)升。電氣化水(shui)平在能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)生(sheng)產側主(zhu)要體現為一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)通過(guo)(guo)電能(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化的比(bi)重(zhong)，即一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)用于發電的比(bi)重(zhong)，在消(xiao)費側主(zhu)要體現為電能(neng)(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)端能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費的比(bi)重(zhong)。如圖1所示(shi)：在生(sheng)產側，一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電能(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化的比(bi)重(zhong)從2000年(nian)的35%左右逐(zhu)步提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)到(dao)2020年(nian)的45%左右；在消(xiao)費側，電能(neng)(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)端能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費的比(bi)重(zhong)從2000年(nian)的不(bu)到(dao)15%逐(zhu)步提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)(gao)到(dao)2020年(nian)的27%左右。近年(nian)來，在能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)革命戰略引領下(xia)，可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的發展和(he)終(zhong)端電能(neng)(neng)(neng)替代取(qu)得了較快(kuai)(kuai)進展，電氣化水(shui)平提(ti)(ti)(ti)升較快(kuai)(kuai)。

圖1 2000-2020年中國電氣(qi)化水(shui)平

注(zhu)：2000-2019年數據(ju)來自《中國能源(yuan)(yuan)統計年鑒(jian)》；2020年數據(ju)來自國家能源(yuan)(yuan)局發布

碳中和愿景下能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)綠色低碳轉型，一(yi)方面，需要(yao)加快調整一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)結(jie)構，大幅度(du)提(ti)升(sheng)非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)比重；另(ling)一(yi)方面，需要(yao)加快改變終端(duan)部(bu)門用能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)方式，實施電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)替代(dai)。現(xian)階段(duan)工業、交通、建筑等終端(duan)部(bu)門的(de)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)量和二氧化(hua)碳排放量仍居(ju)高位，隨(sui)著生產(chan)(chan)側(ce)非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)大比例接入電(dian)力系統(tong)，加強終端(duan)部(bu)門電(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)替代(dai)將可以有效削(xue)減(jian)煤炭(tan)等化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)從而減(jian)少二氧化(hua)碳排放。在生產(chan)(chan)側(ce)和消(xiao)費(fei)側(ce)兩(liang)方面的(de)協同作用下，未來能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)電(dian)氣化(hua)水平必(bi)然會(hui)進一(yi)步提(ti)升(sheng)。

在(zai)生產側，一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源通過(guo)(guo)電能(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重為(wei)煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)、石(shi)油、天(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣和(he)(he)(he)非(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源的不同能(neng)(neng)(neng)源品種電能(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重的加權平均(jun)，權重為(wei)一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消費結構。當前，中國(guo)(guo)煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)用(yong)(yong)于(yu)發(fa)電的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重為(wei)52%左(zuo)右(you)(you)，而在(zai)美國(guo)(guo)等發(fa)達國(guo)(guo)家煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)用(yong)(yong)于(yu)發(fa)電的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重超過(guo)(guo)90%；中國(guo)(guo)天(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣用(yong)(yong)于(yu)發(fa)電的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重為(wei)14%左(zuo)右(you)(you)，而世界平均(jun)水平為(wei)30%左(zuo)右(you)(you)①。可以(yi)(yi)預(yu)計，在(zai)碳中和(he)(he)(he)大背(bei)景下，一(yi)方(fang)面，煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)等化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源的消費量(liang)將受到(dao)(dao)(dao)控(kong)制而逐步(bu)減少②；另一(yi)方(fang)面，化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源的利用(yong)(yong)方(fang)式也(ye)會趨于(yu)清潔高(gao)效(xiao)，通過(guo)(guo)電能(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重將逐步(bu)提高(gao)。本文假定(ding)到(dao)(dao)(dao)2050年(nian)煤(mei)炭(tan)(tan)和(he)(he)(he)天(tian)(tian)然(ran)氣用(yong)(yong)于(yu)發(fa)電的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重分別提到(dao)(dao)(dao)95%和(he)(he)(he)35%③。非(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源方(fang)面，考慮到(dao)(dao)(dao)碳中和(he)(he)(he)背(bei)景下生物質燃(ran)料、地熱(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)、光熱(re)等領域(yu)的發(fa)展，假定(ding)非(fei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源通過(guo)(guo)電能(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重維持在(zai)90%左(zuo)右(you)(you)。一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消費結構方(fang)面，本文參照(zhao)林衛斌和(he)(he)(he)吳嘉儀（2021）的情(qing)景設定(ding)，具(ju)體設定(ding)如表1所(suo)示。根(gen)據(ju)上述情(qing)景設定(ding)，可以(yi)(yi)推(tui)算出一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源電能(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重。如圖2所(suo)示，到(dao)(dao)(dao)2050年(nian)一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源電能(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重可能(neng)(neng)(neng)達到(dao)(dao)(dao)80%左(zuo)右(you)(you)，電力將在(zai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源供應中占(zhan)據(ju)絕對主導地位。

表1能源消費結構情景設(she)定

圖2電氣化水平變化趨勢研(yan)判

在消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)側，基于能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統中一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)平(ping)衡(heng)關系(xi)，可以推(tui)算(suan)出(chu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)的(de)比重(zhong)。計算(suan)公式為：電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)的(de)比重(zhong)=（一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)比重(zhong)×電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)效(xiao)率(lv)）/（一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)比重(zhong)×電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)效(xiao)率(lv)+一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)非(fei)(fei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)比重(zhong)×加工轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)效(xiao)率(lv)）。通(tong)過能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)平(ping)衡(heng)表計算(suan)可得過去五年一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)效(xiao)率(lv)約為38%，非(fei)(fei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)的(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)加工轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)效(xiao)率(lv)約為98%。結(jie)合上文推(tui)算(suan)出(chu)的(de)一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)的(de)比重(zhong)，可以推(tui)算(suan)出(chu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)的(de)比重(zhong)。如圖2所(suo)示，到(dao)2050年電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)的(de)比重(zhong)可能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)提升(sheng)至60%左(zuo)右，電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)將(jiang)逐(zhu)步成為終(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)主體。

二、碳中和愿景下中國能源轉型趨勢之二：電力系統低碳化

當前，煤電在中(zhong)國電力(li)系(xi)統(tong)中(zhong)仍(reng)占(zhan)主(zhu)導地(di)位，裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)比重近50%，發(fa)電量(liang)比重超過60%。這種(zhong)以高碳(tan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)為主(zhu)的(de)(de)發(fa)電結構(gou)不(bu)可避免地(di)造(zao)成二(er)氧化(hua)碳(tan)的(de)(de)大量(liang)排放，難以滿足碳(tan)中(zhong)和的(de)(de)要求。未來隨著電氣化(hua)水平持續提升，電力(li)需求不(bu)斷(duan)增(zeng)加(jia)，電力(li)系(xi)統(tong)在能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉(zhuan)型和碳(tan)減排中(zhong)的(de)(de)作用將(jiang)尤為凸顯。在能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)生產側，由于(yu)非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)主(zhu)要通(tong)過發(fa)電進(jin)行轉(zhuan)化(hua)，非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)對煤炭等傳統(tong)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)(de)清潔替代將(jiang)有效作用于(yu)電力(li)系(xi)統(tong)。隨著非化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)(de)大力(li)發(fa)展，電源(yuan)結構(gou)將(jiang)逐漸優(you)化(hua)，電力(li)系(xi)統(tong)將(jiang)趨(qu)于(yu)綠色低(di)碳(tan)化(hua)。

對(dui)于電(dian)力系統(tong)的低碳化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)程度，可以用(yong)非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，即(ji)總發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)量中(zhong)非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)量的占比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)進行衡量。具體公式為(wei)(wei)：非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)=（非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)×非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)能(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)）/一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)能(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)。考慮到非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)主(zhu)要通過轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)為(wei)(wei)電(dian)能(neng)而得到利用(yong)，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)用(yong)于發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)變化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)不(bu)會太大。因(yin)此(ci)，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的變化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)將(jiang)主(zhu)要取(qu)決于非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)能(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的變化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)。以2020年(nian)為(wei)(wei)例，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)(wei)15.9%，一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)能(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)約為(wei)(wei)45%。與(yu)此(ci)相對(dui)應地，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)(wei)33%左右。未來非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和(he)一(yi)次(ci)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)能(neng)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)都將(jiang)趨于提高，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)也(ye)將(jiang)隨之提高。

圖(tu)3非化(hua)石能源(yuan)發(fa)電占比趨勢

結合非(fei)(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)情景(jing)設定以及一(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)轉化(hua)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的趨勢(shi)，可以研判非(fei)(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)。與非(fei)(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)高(gao)(gao)(gao)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)和低(di)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)兩種情景(jing)相對應的，存在非(fei)(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)高(gao)(gao)(gao)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)與低(di)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)兩種情景(jing)。如(ru)圖3所示(shi)，未來三十年，非(fei)(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)占總發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)持續提升，到2050年，如(ru)果一(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)中非(fei)(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)達到75%-80%，則非(fei)(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)高(gao)(gao)(gao)達84%-90%。非(fei)(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)在成為一(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)供應主體的同時也將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)成為電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供給的主力(li)(li)軍，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統(tong)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)呈現深度低(di)碳化(hua)特征。

三、碳中和愿景下中國能源轉型趨勢之三：能源電力系統去中心化

滿(man)足碳中和(he)(he)下(xia)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)型要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)非(fei)化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)尤(you)其是風能(neng)(neng)(neng)、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)利(li)用(yong)(yong)要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統(tong)(tong)形態(tai)發(fa)(fa)生深(shen)刻變革。由于(yu)風能(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)(he)太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)等具有間歇性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)特征，在傳(chuan)統(tong)(tong)集(ji)中式(shi)(shi)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)利(li)用(yong)(yong)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)下(xia)，需(xu)要(yao)(yao)在大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)建(jian)設(she)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)伏電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)同時，配(pei)套(tao)建(jian)設(she)相應(ying)的(de)(de)(de)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機組(zu)以滿(man)足電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統(tong)(tong)靈活性(xing)要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)，保障(zhang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應(ying)安(an)全。例如(ru)，“十三(san)五”期間，中國風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容量(liang)增加(jia)了(le)3億多(duo)千(qian)瓦。與(yu)(yu)此同時，火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容量(liang)也(ye)增加(jia)了(le)2億多(duo)千(qian)瓦。長遠看，可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與(yu)(yu)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)“比翼齊飛”式(shi)(shi)擴張的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)型之路無疑會不斷增加(jia)“冗余”，大(da)(da)幅提高系統(tong)(tong)成(cheng)本(ben)并最終體(ti)現(xian)為用(yong)(yong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)成(cheng)本(ben)。因(yin)此，滿(man)足碳中和(he)(he)要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)非(fei)化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)利(li)用(yong)(yong)需(xu)要(yao)(yao)突(tu)破傳(chuan)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統(tong)(tong)形態(tai)，突(tu)破集(ji)中式(shi)(shi)、中心化的(de)(de)(de)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)利(li)用(yong)(yong)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)，更多(duo)地(di)采取(qu)分布式(shi)(shi)、去中心化的(de)(de)(de)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)利(li)用(yong)(yong)模(mo)式(shi)(shi)。正(zheng)如(ru)里(li)夫金在《第三(san)次(ci)工業革命》一書中所構想的(de)(de)(de)：每一棟樓(lou)都(dou)變成(cheng)即時收集(ji)可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)微型發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠；在每一棟建(jian)筑(zhu)采用(yong)(yong)氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)(he)其他存儲技術，使(shi)建(jian)筑(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)每一部(bu)分都(dou)能(neng)(neng)(neng)存儲間歇性(xing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)；用(yong)(yong)互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)技術把電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)轉(zhuan)變成(cheng)一個能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠實現(xian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)共享(xiang)的(de)(de)(de)互(hu)聯(lian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)；逐步將(jiang)交通車(che)輛轉(zhuan)為電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動和(he)(he)燃料電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池汽車(che)，并與(yu)(yu)智能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)互(hu)聯(lian)互(hu)通（杰里(li)米(mi)?里(li)夫金，2012）。

可以預見(jian)的是：開(kai)放(fang)互聯、多源(yuan)(yuan)協(xie)同、多能互補、能源(yuan)(yuan)與信息(xi)深度耦合的能源(yuan)(yuan)互聯網將會是未來能源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)的主要形態(tai)特征，這種去中心化(hua)的能源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)主要包(bao)括以下幾大關鍵元素(su)：

一(yi)(yi)是可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)資源(yuan)的分(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)(shi)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)利(li)用(yong)。與煤炭、石油等(deng)(deng)(deng)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)不同(tong)，風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的分(fen)(fen)散性特征使(shi)其開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)利(li)用(yong)無需再囿于一(yi)(yi)處，分(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)(shi)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)、就(jiu)(jiu)地(di)轉化(hua)和就(jiu)(jiu)近消納可以最大程(cheng)度地(di)利(li)用(yong)可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)。中國(guo)可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)資源(yuan)豐(feng)富、分(fen)(fen)布(bu)較為(wei)廣泛，分(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)(shi)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)資源(yuan)可開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)潛(qian)力(li)巨大，據評估可開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)潛(qian)力(li)高達54億千瓦左右（李瓊慧等(deng)(deng)(deng)，2020）。隨著技(ji)術進(jin)步和成本下降，未來分(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)(shi)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)利(li)用(yong)形式(shi)(shi)將(jiang)愈發(fa)(fa)(fa)多樣化(hua)。例如，發(fa)(fa)(fa)展建筑光伏(fu)一(yi)(yi)體化(hua)，將(jiang)每一(yi)(yi)棟(dong)建筑變成一(yi)(yi)個小型(xing)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)廠；在農(nong)村推進(jin)風能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、生物質能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)資源(yuan)的分(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)(shi)開(kai)發(fa)(fa)(fa)利(li)用(yong)，因地(di)制(zhi)宜建設(she)“農(nong)光互補(bu)”等(deng)(deng)(deng)復合光伏(fu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)項目。

二是微(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)和智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)。高滲透率(lv)的分(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)生電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)直接(jie)(jie)接(jie)(jie)入(ru)(ru)配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)會給電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)安全穩(wen)定(ding)運行帶來(lai)巨大挑戰，而以分(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)、配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)施(shi)、控制設(she)備、負荷(he)以及儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)裝置(zhi)等(deng)構(gou)成的微(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)既可(ke)(ke)以離網(wang)獨立運行，實現電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)自(zi)平衡(heng)，也可(ke)(ke)以接(jie)(jie)入(ru)(ru)大電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)，在電(dian)(dian)(dian)力短缺時(shi)(shi)從大電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)購電(dian)(dian)(dian)，在電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)過剩時(shi)(shi)為大電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)提供(gong)調峰服務，這種分(fen)(fen)布(bu)式(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)組織方式(shi)可(ke)(ke)以有(you)效降低大電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)的負擔(dan)，提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)安全可(ke)(ke)靠性。未來(lai)隨著大數(shu)據、云計(ji)算、物聯(lian)網(wang)、移動互聯(lian)等(deng)先進信(xin)(xin)息(xi)技術(shu)和智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)技術(shu)在電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統的應用，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統的各(ge)個(ge)(ge)環節(jie)將全面智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)化、數(shu)字化、互動化。一個(ge)(ge)個(ge)(ge)微(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)通過智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)相互聯(lian)接(jie)(jie)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統中所有(you)節(jie)點之間的信(xin)(xin)息(xi)和電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)都將可(ke)(ke)以實現雙向流(liu)動。

三是(shi)(shi)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。鑒于(yu)可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)間歇性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)出(chu)力(li)特(te)性(xing)(xing)，儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)將成為(wei)(wei)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統不可(ke)(ke)或缺的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)元素(su)。儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)使用(yong)可(ke)(ke)以(yi)突破電(dian)(dian)力(li)發(fa)(fa)、輸(shu)、配、用(yong)同時(shi)連續進行的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)傳統模(mo)式，實(shi)現電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“跨時(shi)間轉(zhuan)(zhuan)移”。因此，通過(guo)發(fa)(fa)展“可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)+儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)模(mo)式可(ke)(ke)以(yi)有(you)效(xiao)減(jian)少可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)出(chu)力(li)波(bo)動(dong)及不確(que)定性(xing)(xing)，有(you)望(wang)成為(wei)(wei)未(wei)來(lai)主流的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)展方向(xiang)。按照技術原理，儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)主要有(you)物理儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、化學儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和電(dian)(dian)磁儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)三類，其中物理儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技術的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)典型(xing)代(dai)表(biao)抽水蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)是(shi)(shi)當今最(zui)為(wei)(wei)成熟的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技術，而化學儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)如鋰離子(zi)電(dian)(dian)池等(deng)(deng)目(mu)前技術進步最(zui)快(kuai)、最(zui)受關注。考慮到技術可(ke)(ke)行性(xing)(xing)、建設(she)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經濟性(xing)(xing)、安全性(xing)(xing)等(deng)(deng)因素(su)，能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)前期(qi)抽水蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)仍(reng)將是(shi)(shi)最(zui)主要的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)形式，轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)后期(qi)隨著(zhu)化學儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技術的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)成熟以(yi)及成本(ben)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)下降，電(dian)(dian)化學儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)容量預計將顯著(zhu)增加(jia)。

四是氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量密度大、轉(zhuan)化效率高(gao)，具(ju)有來源(yuan)廣(guang)泛、用(yong)途多(duo)(duo)樣、既可(ke)(ke)(ke)運(yun)(yun)輸也可(ke)(ke)(ke)儲存(cun)的(de)(de)(de)(de)特(te)性，是功能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)靈活的(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)載(zai)體(ti)和燃(ran)料(liao)。當前氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)氣(qi)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)通過化石燃(ran)料(liao)制(zhi)(zhi)取，制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)過程會產(chan)生溫室氣(qi)體(ti)排(pai)放(fang)，有悖于(yu)碳中(zhong)和要(yao)(yao)求(qiu)。隨著風(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)電(dian)價進一步下降(jiang)(jiang)，電(dian)解水(shui)(shui)制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)成(cheng)本降(jiang)(jiang)低(di)，可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)解水(shui)(shui)制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)有望(wang)成(cheng)為氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)氣(qi)制(zhi)(zhi)取的(de)(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)方(fang)式(shi)。通過可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)解水(shui)(shui)制(zhi)(zhi)取的(de)(de)(de)(de)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)氣(qi)可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)在能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉(zhuan)型中(zhong)發(fa)揮多(duo)(duo)重作(zuo)用(yong)：一方(fang)面(mian)風(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、水(shui)(shui)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)棄電(dian)可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)通過電(dian)解水(shui)(shui)制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)，以(yi)(yi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)氣(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)形(xing)式(shi)進行儲存(cun)和運(yun)(yun)輸，在電(dian)力不足時再以(yi)(yi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)供電(dian)（曹(cao)軍文等(deng)，2021），通過電(dian)—氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)之間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)高(gao)效轉(zhuan)化，實現(xian)電(dian)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)協同，提高(gao)電(dian)力系統靈活性；另一方(fang)面(mian)，零碳的(de)(de)(de)(de)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)實現(xian)多(duo)(duo)種能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量形(xing)式(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)轉(zhuan)化，氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)應用(yong)有助于(yu)終端用(yong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)部門實現(xian)深度脫碳，例如在難(nan)以(yi)(yi)減(jian)碳的(de)(de)(de)(de)煉(lian)(lian)鋼領域，以(yi)(yi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)氣(qi)代替焦炭作(zuo)為還原劑(ji)可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)實現(xian)“零碳煉(lian)(lian)鋼”，在碳排(pai)放(fang)較高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)交通運(yun)(yun)輸領域，應用(yong)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)燃(ran)料(liao)電(dian)池可(ke)(ke)(ke)以(yi)(yi)實現(xian)“零污染”。

五(wu)是新能源(yuan)交通。智能技術(shu)以及新能源(yuan)的(de)(de)使(shi)用是交通行業低碳(tan)轉型的(de)(de)必然方向(xiang)，未來(lai)傳統燃油車將(jiang)逐(zhu)步被清潔、智能化的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車所替代。技術(shu)成(cheng)(cheng)熟時，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽車可(ke)以作為(wei)儲能設備，通過合理(li)機制(zhi)的(de)(de)引導參與電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統調節，在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)負荷(he)較低時進行充電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)負荷(he)較高(gao)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應不(bu)足時為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)回輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能。考慮到未來(lai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)車的(de)(de)廣(guang)泛使(shi)用，這種儲能資源(yuan)將(jiang)具(ju)有巨大潛力(li)(li)，新能源(yuan)交通將(jiang)成(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)去(qu)中(zhong)心化能源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統不(bu)可(ke)缺少的(de)(de)部(bu)分。此外(wai)，隨著以新能源(yuan)為(wei)動(dong)力(li)(li)的(de)(de)運(yun)輸(shu)工(gong)具(ju)在(zai)交通全域的(de)(de)廣(guang)泛應用，綠色(se)清潔的(de)(de)運(yun)輸(shu)體系(xi)逐(zhu)步形成(cheng)(cheng)，這將(jiang)極大助力(li)(li)碳(tan)中(zhong)和的(de)(de)實現。

四、結語

滿足碳中和目標的能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)型要求(qiu)大幅度提(ti)高(gao)非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費比(bi)(bi)重。隨著(zhu)非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)占一次(ci)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)比(bi)(bi)重逐步提(ti)升，一次(ci)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)通(tong)過(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)轉(zhuan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)的比(bi)(bi)重和電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)端能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費的比(bi)(bi)重將趨于提(ti)高(gao)，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水平(ping)將不斷提(ti)升。對于電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)而言，隨著(zhu)非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費比(bi)(bi)重和生產側(ce)電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水平(ping)的持續提(ti)升，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)比(bi)(bi)重也將不斷提(ti)高(gao)，非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結構(gou)中將逐步占據主導地(di)位，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)將呈現深(shen)度低碳化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)特(te)征。為支撐非化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)規模化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)發展，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開發利用(yong)模式需要由傳統(tong)(tong)(tong)的集中式轉(zhuan)向去中心(xin)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)模式，能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)形態將迎來(lai)深(shen)刻變革。碳中和愿景下能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)型將呈現三大趨勢：能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)低碳化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)和能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)去中心(xin)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)。

①中國煤炭(tan)和天然(ran)氣用(yong)于發(fa)電的比(bi)(bi)重根據(ju)《中國能源統(tong)計(ji)(ji)年鑒(jian)2020》計(ji)(ji)算(suan)，美(mei)國煤炭(tan)用(yong)于發(fa)電的比(bi)(bi)重和天然(ran)氣用(yong)于發(fa)電比(bi)(bi)重的世界(jie)平均(jun)水平根據(ju)IEA統(tong)計(ji)(ji)數據(ju)計(ji)(ji)算(suan)。

②相(xiang)對低碳的天然氣在碳中(zhong)和實現過程中(zhong)作為一種過渡(du)能源，其消費量可(ke)能先增后減。

③在中國石油用(yong)于發電(dian)的比(bi)重很小，因此忽略不計(ji)。

參考文獻：

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