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即將到來的(de)(de)2020年(nian)既(ji)是(shi)(shi)“十(shi)三(san)五(wu)”收官(guan)之(zhi)年(nian)，也是(shi)(shi)“十(shi)四五(wu)”的(de)(de)規劃(hua)之(zhi)年(nian)。“十(shi)三(san)五(wu)”電力(li)(li)(li)規劃(hua)制(zhi)定的(de)(de)發展(zhan)目(mu)標大(da)都可實現，風電和光伏大(da)幅超預期(qi)增(zeng)長，但是(shi)(shi)抽水蓄能(neng)、氣(qi)電裝(zhuang)機不(bu)達預期(qi)，煤電靈(ling)(ling)活性(xing)改(gai)造進展(zhan)緩慢。同時，電力(li)(li)(li)工業(ye)發展(zhan)的(de)(de)新問題不(bu)斷暴露與激化，“短時缺(que)電力(li)(li)(li)、全年(nian)富電量”，煤電行(xing)業(ye)大(da)幅虧(kui)損，系(xi)統(tong)靈(ling)(ling)活性(xing)不(bu)足與新能(neng)源(yuan)消納受限(xian)等(deng)等(deng)，都是(shi)(shi)電力(li)(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)結構性(xing)矛盾長期(qi)積(ji)累的(de)(de)體現。

“十四五(wu)”是電(dian)力低碳(tan)發展的(de)戰(zhan)略“窗口期”，而電(dian)力供需形勢變化、能(neng)源革命目標、環(huan)保政(zheng)策加碼、電(dian)力市場化改(gai)革、巴黎(li)協定溫控(kong)目標等多(duo)重(zhong)因素使得電(dian)力發展“內外交困”，與以往(wang)“按需定供”的(de)簡單總量平衡(heng)規劃相比，“十四五(wu)”電(dian)力規劃須有新的(de)內涵與定位(wei)，同時將更具(ju)有挑戰(zhan)性。

一、立足長遠，明確“十四五”電力規劃的價值觀與方法論。

電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)工業是國民經濟發(fa)展的(de)支柱性產業，關乎國計民生。在目(mu)(mu)前穩(wen)增長(chang)和(he)調結構并行的(de)經濟轉(zhuan)軌(gui)期(qi)(qi)(qi)，為(wei)(wei)更好地服務于國家發(fa)展戰(zhan)略，“十四五(wu)”電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)發(fa)展應堅持(chi)“安全為(wei)(wei)基(ji)礎，綠色(se)和(he)經濟為(wei)(wei)約束”的(de)價值(zhi)觀，以(yi)“四個能源革(ge)命”為(wei)(wei)方法論，發(fa)揮(hui)好向(xiang)“兩個一百年(nian)”目(mu)(mu)標奮進的(de)“窗(chuang)口期(qi)(qi)(qi)”作用(yong)，根據2030/2035中期(qi)(qi)(qi)目(mu)(mu)標、2050年(nian)長(chang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)低碳轉(zhuan)型(xing)目(mu)(mu)標倒推近期(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)規劃目(mu)(mu)標，以(yi)保(bao)障(zhang)滿足人民對(dui)更好生活(huo)要(yao)求的(de)高(gao)(gao)質(zhi)量(liang)、綠色(se)低碳電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)服務為(wei)(wei)導向(xiang)，避(bi)免(mian)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)發(fa)展的(de)高(gao)(gao)碳路(lu)徑(jing)鎖定。

二、目標明確，“十四五”電力規劃要區分預期性、約束性和引導性指標。

“十四(si)五”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力規(gui)劃的(de)(de)(de)(de)目(mu)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)體系(xi)可(ke)分為預期(qi)(qi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、約(yue)束(shu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)和(he)引(yin)(yin)導性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)。預期(qi)(qi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)是(shi)(shi)經(jing)科學(xue)研(yan)判、預期(qi)(qi)會(hui)達到的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展目(mu)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)，主(zhu)要(yao)依靠(kao)市場(chang)主(zhu)體的(de)(de)(de)(de)自主(zhu)行(xing)(xing)為來實(shi)現。約(yue)束(shu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)，就是(shi)(shi)在(zai)預期(qi)(qi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)基礎上，強化了必須(xu)履行(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)職責，是(shi)(shi)必須(xu)實(shi)現、必須(xu)完成的(de)(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)。引(yin)(yin)導性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)，就是(shi)(shi)指(zhi)(zhi)在(zai)一(yi)定要(yao)求(qiu)之下，可(ke)以根據標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)準定位和(he)市場(chang)需(xu)求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)具體情(qing)況(kuang)靈活選用(yong)(yong)，并需(xu)要(yao)政策(ce)推動鼓(gu)勵(li)和(he)市場(chang)機制引(yin)(yin)導的(de)(de)(de)(de)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)。“十四(si)五”期(qi)(qi)間，建議(yi)設(she)立的(de)(de)(de)(de)預期(qi)(qi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)包(bao)括全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量、分類(lei)清潔可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)裝機容量、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化水平等；按照綠色低(di)碳(tan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展要(yao)求(qiu)，約(yue)束(shu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)應(ying)包(bao)括電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供應(ying)可(ke)靠(kao)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)、煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤耗、非(fei)化石能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)占比、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)(xing)業度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)碳(tan)排放績效、棄(qi)風棄(qi)光率等；引(yin)(yin)導性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)包(bao)括需(xu)求(qiu)響應(ying)規(gui)模(mo)、煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)靈活性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)改造規(gui)模(mo)、可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源平價上網時間、分布式(shi)能(neng)源利(li)用(yong)(yong)規(gui)模(mo)、接入電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)儲能(neng)規(gui)模(mo)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)替(ti)代規(gui)模(mo)等。預期(qi)(qi)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)為規(gui)劃指(zhi)(zhi)引(yin)(yin)，約(yue)束(shu)性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)為規(gui)劃保障，引(yin)(yin)導性(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)指(zhi)(zhi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)為規(gui)劃添力，三者層次(ci)分明，共同構成“十四(si)五”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力規(gui)劃的(de)(de)(de)(de)目(mu)標(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)(biao)體系(xi)。

三、多維約束，明確“十四五”電力規劃的邊界條件。

邊(bian)界條(tiao)件(jian)可以理(li)解為“要(yao)實現目標(biao)必須滿足的最(zui)低(di)條(tiao)件(jian)限制”，也就是基(ji)本(ben)原則。電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)發(fa)展的邊(bian)界條(tiao)件(jian)包括安(an)全可靠、低(di)碳(tan)減排(pai)、經濟(ji)適用等，這(zhe)些(xie)邊(bian)界條(tiao)件(jian)所(suo)對應(ying)(ying)的可量(liang)化指標(biao)分(fen)別為滿足最(zui)大(da)負荷水平與系統備用率、電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)碳(tan)排(pai)放強度(du)、污染(ran)物(wu)排(pai)放總量(liang)、發(fa)電(dian)(dian)成本(ben)、電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供應(ying)(ying)成本(ben)。

首先，規劃上不應(ying)以(yi)100%最(zui)大負(fu)(fu)荷(he)為負(fu)(fu)荷(he)平衡條件(jian)，95%更為經(jing)濟、科學。我國經(jing)濟基本完成工業(ye)化(hua)進程(cheng)、三產居民用(yong)電(dian)負(fu)(fu)荷(he)成為新增(zeng)負(fu)(fu)荷(he)主體、疊加極(ji)(ji)端氣象因素，用(yong)電(dian)負(fu)(fu)荷(he)特性持續惡化(hua)，峰(feng)(feng)谷差(cha)拉大、尖(jian)峰(feng)(feng)負(fu)(fu)荷(he)短(duan)而(er)高(gao)(gao)，如果繼續單純依靠增(zeng)加電(dian)源來滿(man)足100%的(de)負(fu)(fu)荷(he)需(xu)(xu)求要付出極(ji)(ji)大的(de)代價；而(er)從滿(man)足資源充裕度要求來看，需(xu)(xu)求響應(ying)無(wu)需(xu)(xu)前期高(gao)(gao)昂的(de)建設成本，是(shi)更為經(jing)濟的(de)選擇(ze)。與(yu)此同時，按(an)照最(zui)大負(fu)(fu)荷(he)計算的(de)系統(tong)備用(yong)率也可相應(ying)下調(diao)。

其(qi)次(ci)，低碳(tan)(tan)減排(pai)是應對全(quan)球氣候變化(hua)必須采(cai)取(qu)的(de)行(xing)動，而電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)業(ye)是重中之重。我國(guo)以煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)為主的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)結(jie)構碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)放強度(du)(du)很高，但未來(lai)提(ti)高發電(dian)(dian)(dian)效率、降低煤耗(hao)的(de)技術減排(pai)潛力(li)不大，發展非(fei)化(hua)石能源(yuan)以及碳(tan)(tan)捕獲封存將是電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)減排(pai)的(de)主要方式。為實現(xian)2050年(nian)全(quan)球兩度(du)(du)溫控和(he)2030年(nian)碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)放達峰(feng)目標，有必要設定電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)業(ye)的(de)碳(tan)(tan)減排(pai)路線圖。

同時，發電(dian)(dian)資源的(de)經濟(ji)(ji)性不應(ying)再停留在(zai)度電(dian)(dian)成本層(ceng)面，而應(ying)從(cong)系(xi)統角度出發來衡量(liang)各類(lei)電(dian)(dian)源的(de)價值，厘清電(dian)(dian)價的(de)“權責關系(xi)”，用(yong)經濟(ji)(ji)激勵手段來引(yin)導各類(lei)電(dian)(dian)源有序(xu)發展。

再有(you)，“十四五”電(dian)(dian)力(li)規(gui)劃必須具備峰(feng)(feng)(feng)值(zhi)意識，提出明確的(de)涵蓋電(dian)(dian)力(li)行業尤其(qi)是與煤電(dian)(dian)相關的(de)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)值(zhi)目(mu)(mu)標，例如電(dian)(dian)煤消費峰(feng)(feng)(feng)值(zhi)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)/時間(jian)、煤電(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)（裝機）峰(feng)(feng)(feng)值(zhi)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)/時間(jian)、電(dian)(dian)力(li)碳(tan)排(pai)放峰(feng)(feng)(feng)值(zhi)總(zong)量(liang)(liang)/時間(jian)（須在2030年之前）。以峰(feng)(feng)(feng)值(zhi)目(mu)(mu)標為重要節點(dian)，加(jia)快電(dian)(dian)力(li)低碳(tan)轉型進(jin)程(cheng)。

最后，須明(ming)確“十四五”電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)規劃邊界條件的邏輯關系，以安全可靠(kao)為首要目(mu)標，權衡(heng)低(di)碳減排和經濟(ji)適用原則，不能(neng)(neng)片面(mian)追求低(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價而放(fang)緩新能(neng)(neng)源發(fa)展（如大部分發(fa)展中國家），也不能(neng)(neng)因重視新能(neng)(neng)源而抬高電(dian)(dian)(dian)價（如德國），做好經濟(ji)成(cheng)本與(yu)環(huan)境(jing)效益的平衡(heng)，從而劃定電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)規劃“三角形”的可行解范圍，并以宏觀能(neng)(neng)源經濟(ji)目(mu)標為依據，設定具體的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)目(mu)標指(zhi)引。

四、綜合優化，“十四五”電力規劃應著力解決復雜的系統問題。

“十(shi)四(si)五(wu)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)發(fa)展(zhan)形勢較以(yi)(yi)往(wang)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)期(qi)(qi)有(you)很(hen)大不(bu)(bu)同。以(yi)(yi)往(wang)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)期(qi)(qi)是(shi)(shi)按照“以(yi)(yi)需(xu)(xu)(xu)定供”的(de)(de)(de)(de)模(mo)式來設定發(fa)展(zhan)目(mu)標，以(yi)(yi)應(ying)對全國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)供應(ying)不(bu)(bu)足(zu)(zu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)主要矛(mao)(mao)盾，主體思路是(shi)(shi)加快部署電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)裝機(ji)和完(wan)善(shan)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)網絡(luo)，這符合(he)當時(shi)發(fa)展(zhan)階段的(de)(de)(de)(de)特征要求。但(dan)新(xin)時(shi)期(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)矛(mao)(mao)盾不(bu)(bu)再是(shi)(shi)單(dan)一的(de)(de)(de)(de)供需(xu)(xu)(xu)失(shi)衡，而是(shi)(shi)整個電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)結(jie)構性(xing)(xing)矛(mao)(mao)盾，集中表現為產能(neng)總體過剩與(yu)(yu)區域(yu)尖(jian)峰負(fu)荷供應(ying)不(bu)(bu)足(zu)(zu)并(bing)存、靈活性(xing)(xing)資源(yuan)(yuan)不(bu)(bu)足(zu)(zu)掣肘(zhou)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)、煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)行業虧損與(yu)(yu)中長期(qi)(qi)擱淺風險(xian)加劇，等(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)。單(dan)純依(yi)靠(kao)增加電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)裝機(ji)已無法(fa)解(jie)決(jue)新(xin)時(shi)期(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)問題(ti)，反而會(hui)加重結(jie)構性(xing)(xing)矛(mao)(mao)盾。“十(shi)四(si)五(wu)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)發(fa)展(zhan)面臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)性(xing)(xing)問題(ti)是(shi)(shi)低碳轉型(xing)目(mu)標下如(ru)何進一步優化電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)結(jie)構來安全可(ke)靠(kao)地滿足(zu)(zu)新(xin)型(xing)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求及市場利益分配問題(ti)。具體來講(jiang)，如(ru)何滿足(zu)(zu)高比例(li)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消納和負(fu)荷特性(xing)(xing)惡化對系(xi)統(tong)(tong)靈活性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求，如(ru)何調節煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)博弈(yi)關系(xi)，如(ru)何疏(shu)導電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)成本與(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價機(ji)制(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)矛(mao)(mao)盾，如(ru)何推動煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)功能(neng)定位調整等(deng)(deng)(deng)等(deng)(deng)(deng)，這些問題(ti)應(ying)從更宏觀的(de)(de)(de)(de)視角(jiao)來考量(liang)。“十(shi)四(si)五(wu)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)不(bu)(bu)能(neng)一味“貪多求大”，要以(yi)(yi)擬解(jie)決(jue)的(de)(de)(de)(de)關鍵系(xi)統(tong)(tong)問題(ti)為切入點，從系(xi)統(tong)(tong)優化角(jiao)度實現供需(xu)(xu)(xu)互動，側重市場引導，推動發(fa)展(zhan)與(yu)(yu)防(fang)范風險(xian)并(bing)舉。

五、主體內容，“十四五”電力規劃明確各類電力資源的系統定位。

“十四五”電力規(gui)劃應減少(shao)規(gui)劃層次(ci)，多規(gui)合一，淡化總量平衡，突(tu)出(chu)重大問題和政策引導。

首(shou)要(yao)(yao)問題是各(ge)類電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)發(fa)展定位(wei)(wei)。目前較為共識的(de)(de)觀(guan)點(dian)認為，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)要(yao)(yao)從電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)向電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)變(bian)，一定時期內保(bao)持(chi)主體(ti)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)地(di)位(wei)(wei)；為加速低碳轉(zhuan)型，新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)要(yao)(yao)從補(bu)(bu)充替代電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展成(cheng)為主體(ti)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)之一，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)要(yao)(yao)持(chi)續穩步(bu)開(kai)發(fa)；重視(shi)儲能(neng)和需求(qiu)響應(ying)(ying)，強化供需耦合，改變(bian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)形態；跨區輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)是實現東西(xi)部(bu)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)互(hu)補(bu)(bu)的(de)(de)關鍵。其(qi)次是電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)布局(ju)(ju)問題，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)逐漸向中西(xi)部(bu)遷(qian)移，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)未來的(de)(de)開(kai)發(fa)重心放在(zai)西(xi)南(nan)地(di)區，核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)在(zai)沿(yan)海地(di)區和適宜(yi)的(de)(de)內陸選址布局(ju)(ju)，新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在(zai)三北富集區集中開(kai)發(fa)和在(zai)中東部(bu)地(di)區分(fen)(fen)布式開(kai)發(fa)并舉(ju)開(kai)發(fa)。非常重要(yao)(yao)的(de)(de)是，“十(shi)四五”規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)不(bu)應(ying)(ying)再是各(ge)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)品種簡單(dan)疊加的(de)(de)“拼盤式”規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)，而(er)是各(ge)類電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)定位(wei)(wei)明確、功能(neng)互(hu)補(bu)(bu)；不(bu)應(ying)(ying)再是單(dan)純的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)，而(er)是立足綜(zong)合資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)，源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網荷儲用有(you)機銜(xian)接的(de)(de)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)；也不(bu)應(ying)(ying)再是電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行業利益(yi)主張的(de)(de)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)，而(er)是電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行業發(fa)展（集中式電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)發(fa)+大電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網）與區域和地(di)方經濟社會發(fa)展深(shen)度融合的(de)(de)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)，為國家重大區域發(fa)展戰略落地(di)提供新動能(neng)，為分(fen)(fen)布式可再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展留足空間，保(bao)持(chi)彈性互(hu)動。

面向(xiang)更為長遠(yuan)的發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)目標，“十四五(wu)(wu)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)規(gui)劃有必(bi)要出(chu)臺政(zheng)策(ce)引導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)技術(shu)產(chan)(chan)業進步(bu)。其(qi)一、高度重視節能優先戰略，強化(hua)能耗管(guan)理，推進“兩個替代”政(zheng)策(ce)和分布式(shi)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，減(jian)少散燒煤，提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)水平和能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)自(zi)主(zhu)性(xing)。其(qi)二(er)、新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)還將大規(gui)模增長，需(xu)要繼續(xu)出(chu)臺補(bu)貼之外的支持性(xing)政(zheng)策(ce)保障可(ke)再生能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)平價前的“最后(hou)一公里”。其(qi)三、靈活性(xing)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)配(pei)置，依(yi)靠(kao)輔助服(fu)務價格機制加快煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)定位轉型、CCGT建(jian)設(she)和儲能部(bu)署，消弭電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)側新(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)波動和需(xu)求側負(fu)荷波動的“兩極”疊加對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)安全(quan)的影響(xiang)。其(qi)四、核(he)能開發(fa)按照“安全(quan)、創新(xin)、開放(fang)、市場導(dao)向(xiang)”的原則(ze)，發(fa)揮規(gui)模建(jian)設(she)的效益優勢，縮(suo)減(jian)整(zheng)體(ti)建(jian)設(she)成(cheng)本，構(gou)建(jian)可(ke)把控的核(he)能燃料產(chan)(chan)業鏈，做(zuo)好(hao)核(he)燃料循(xun)環工作。其(qi)五(wu)(wu)、完善(shan)跨(kua)(kua)區(qu)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和區(qu)域輸配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網建(jian)設(she)，疏(shu)通(tong)區(qu)域電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)流通(tong)的載能通(tong)道(dao)，實(shi)現不同資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)條件和負(fu)荷特性(xing)的地域間跨(kua)(kua)時區(qu)凈負(fu)荷時序互補(bu)。最后(hou)、鼓勵(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)新(xin)業態(tai)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，例如綜合能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)服(fu)務、能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)互聯網、泛在(zai)物聯網等(deng)，著力(li)打(da)造多能互補(bu)、能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)與數字化(hua)深度融合，加速電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)低碳轉型進程。

六、機制建設，“十四五”電力規劃的實施要依靠“市場激勵+行政監管”。

單純依靠行(xing)政(zheng)手(shou)段(duan)推動(dong)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)工(gong)業(ye)快速發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)時(shi)期已經(jing)過去，現(xian)階段(duan)及(ji)以(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)后應(ying)借助市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)規則來(lai)推動(dong)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)高效(xiao)(xiao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)，深化(hua)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)化(hua)改(gai)(gai)革。從(cong)我(wo)國火電(dian)靈活性(xing)(xing)改(gai)(gai)造(zao)工(gong)作(zuo)進程緩慢可以(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)看出(chu)，盡管“十三五(wu)”電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)規劃(hua)明(ming)確(que)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)定了氣(qi)電(dian)、抽水蓄能、煤(mei)電(dian)靈活性(xing)(xing)改(gai)(gai)造(zao)的(de)(de)目標(biao)(biao)以(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)提升系統靈活性(xing)(xing)，但市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)軔(ren)不足(zu)使得這(zhe)些(xie)目標(biao)(biao)均(jun)無(wu)法實(shi)現(xian)。國外電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)的(de)(de)成功經(jing)驗表明(ming)，采(cai)用(yong)(yong)“經(jing)濟激勵+行(xing)政(zheng)監(jian)管”的(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)化(hua)模式對電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)資源(yuan)的(de)(de)配置效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)更高，更為(wei)符合(he)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)工(gong)業(ye)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)到一定水平后的(de)(de)新(xin)階段(duan)要求。電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)新(xin)形(xing)勢下，我(wo)國也應(ying)側重(zhong)依靠市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)手(shou)段(duan)引(yin)導(dao)(dao)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)，將電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)體制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)納入到“十四(si)五(wu)”電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)規劃(hua)中(zhong)，在政(zheng)策目標(biao)(biao)的(de)(de)頂層(ceng)設(she)(she)計框(kuang)架下，培育(yu)現(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)、輔助服務市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)和容量市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)，將電(dian)量和電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)價值(zhi)加以(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)區分，通(tong)過合(he)理的(de)(de)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)價格變化(hua)來(lai)釋(shi)放(fang)投資信號，引(yin)導(dao)(dao)電(dian)源(yuan)裝機、靈活性(xing)(xing)改(gai)(gai)造(zao)、儲能建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)、需求響應(ying)等，做到電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)競爭(zheng)和電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)基礎設(she)(she)施建(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)“軟硬兼(jian)施”。因此，“十四(si)五(wu)”電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)規劃(hua)既要明(ming)確(que)一組關鍵指(zhi)標(biao)(biao)來(lai)“總攬”未來(lai)五(wu)年電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)的(de)(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)目標(biao)(biao)，還(huan)要“刻(ke)畫”出(chu)政(zheng)策路線圖來(lai)“勾勒”體制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)改(gai)(gai)革方向(xiang)、明(ming)確(que)改(gai)(gai)革成效(xiao)(xiao)，始終以(yi)(yi)(yi)(yi)“問題導(dao)(dao)向(xiang)”和“目標(biao)(biao)導(dao)(dao)向(xiang)”為(wei)準繩，用(yong)(yong)順暢的(de)(de)體制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)機制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)為(wei)動(dong)力(li)(li)(li)(li)驅動(dong)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)低碳轉型。

市場并不(bu)是(shi)“萬(wan)能鑰匙”，在(zai)市場建(jian)設(she)初(chu)期(qi)可能會出現運行效果和(he)設(she)計初(chu)衷有較大(da)偏(pian)差(cha)的(de)(de)情況，這是(shi)新機(ji)制探索過程(cheng)中必(bi)須考慮的(de)(de)問題(ti)。“十四五”電力規劃(hua)應建(jian)立“需(xu)求場景+資源配(pei)置+市場機(ji)制+政策(ce)保障”模式(shi)，構建(jian)靈活(huo)柔性(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)規劃(hua)目標(biao)執(zhi)行方式(shi)，約(yue)束性(xing)(xing)指標(biao)應有可執(zhi)行的(de)(de)落(luo)地機(ji)制，預(yu)(yu)先設(she)定調控程(cheng)序，預(yu)(yu)留目標(biao)調整空間(jian)；而(er)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)性(xing)(xing)、引導性(xing)(xing)指標(biao)則主要通過機(ji)制建(jian)設(she)，發揮市場的(de)(de)決定性(xing)(xing)作用，建(jian)立合(he)適的(de)(de)激勵機(ji)制由(you)市場力量來決定如(ru)何發展。

“十四五”電(dian)(dian)力(li)規劃要從當前電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統的基本面出發，明確(que)電(dian)(dian)力(li)規劃的主體思想和(he)理念(nian)——“安全為(wei)首要命(ming)題，清潔和(he)經濟為(wei)雙重約束”，以關鍵問題為(wei)切入(ru)點(dian)，側重市場引導手段(duan)，充分發揮好(hao)面向長遠轉(zhuan)型(xing)目標的戰略“窗口(kou)期”的過渡(du)作用。