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摘要：光熱電站可以平穩發電，但仍屬于限能電站，不能全容量參加電力平衡，季節性電力支撐能力受限。該文基于光熱電站日等效保證小時數和系統高峰時段需求提出了一種評估光熱發電替代火電裝機能力的方法，進而給出一種通過增加應急鍋爐備用發電以完全替代火電裝機應對極端天氣和季節性缺電的解決方法。青海電力系統的算例表明，光熱電站通過增加應急備用鍋爐可應對極端天氣和季節性電力電量供應的不平衡，做到全容量全時段替代火電裝機，同時保證發電量中絕大部分仍是可再生能源。論文的研究成果，可助力光熱電站實現以少量低碳能源帶動大規模可再生能源開發，在新型電力系統中具有重要示范意義。

引言

隨著國家雙碳戰略目標的(de)(de)實施，我國新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)開發規模繼續擴(kuo)大，火電(dian)建(jian)設(she)空(kong)間將進一步(bu)壓縮，而系(xi)統(tong)負荷仍(reng)在穩(wen)步(bu)增(zeng)長，風電(dian)及光伏的(de)(de)波動性使(shi)系(xi)統(tong)難以實現(xian)全時(shi)段(duan)電(dian)力電(dian)量平(ping)衡。可再(zai)生能源(yuan)發電(dian)的(de)(de)季(ji)節性不平(ping)衡是電(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)中新(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)占比升高到一定階段(duan)必然面臨的(de)(de)問(wen)題(ti)[1-4]。

新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統需要尋(xun)求能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)夠(gou)替代(dai)(dai)火電(dian)(dian)的穩定電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)，西北地區光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)站本身(shen)具有一定替代(dai)(dai)火電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力，但(dan)受(shou)太(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)直射輻射影(ying)響(xiang)，在極端天(tian)氣無(wu)法獲得(de)足(zu)夠(gou)的熱(re)(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)，連續(xu)極端天(tian)氣不平(ping)(ping)衡(heng)問題更加突出。目前(qian)，光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)站無(wu)法全容(rong)量參加電(dian)(dian)力平(ping)(ping)衡(heng)，替代(dai)(dai)火電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力大(da)打折扣。本文研究通過(guo)增(zeng)加應急燃氣鍋爐(lu)備用發電(dian)(dian)，可(ke)在極端天(tian)氣補(bu)充(chong)熱(re)(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)，甚(shen)至(zhi)可(ke)以應對系(xi)(xi)統電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量供應的季節性不平(ping)(ping)衡(heng)，做到(dao)全容(rong)量全時段(duan)全功能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)替代(dai)(dai)火電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機，保(bao)障電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量供應；同時保(bao)證發電(dian)(dian)量中絕大(da)部分仍是可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)，實現以少量低碳能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)帶動大(da)規模可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)開發，在新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統中具有重要示(shi)范意義。

1、新型電力系統電力保障形勢

傳統(tong)電(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)以(yi)(yi)火(huo)電(dian)、水電(dian)等常規電(dian)源為主，調(diao)峰需求(qiu)(qiu)主要(yao)是負荷波動(dong)引起(qi)，隨(sui)著新(xin)能源滲(shen)透(tou)率的(de)(de)不(bu)斷提高，調(diao)峰需求(qiu)(qiu)也(ye)在(zai)(zai)發(fa)生變(bian)化，高比例新(xin)能源系(xi)(xi)統(tong)調(diao)峰需求(qiu)(qiu)主要(yao)是為了滿足新(xin)能源接納需求(qiu)(qiu)。與此同時(shi)，在(zai)(zai)國家(jia)雙(shuang)碳(tan)戰略的(de)(de)推進過(guo)程中(zhong)，火(huo)電(dian)發(fa)展空間大大壓縮，導致為滿足系(xi)(xi)統(tong)最(zui)大電(dian)力(li)需求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)(de)常規電(dian)源電(dian)力(li)供應(ying)也(ye)日趨(qu)緊張。可以(yi)(yi)預見，以(yi)(yi)新(xin)能源為主體的(de)(de)電(dian)力(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)同時(shi)面臨向上調(diao)峰和向下調(diao)峰2個方面的(de)(de)需求(qiu)(qiu)，尤(you)其是向上調(diao)峰關(guan)系(xi)(xi)到電(dian)力(li)保(bao)障問題顯(xian)得尤(you)為重要(yao)。

受資源(yuan)約(yue)(yue)束的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(限能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan))向上(shang)(shang)調峰能(neng)力(li)的(de)發揮(hui)除了跟(gen)機組自(zi)身(shen)調峰能(neng)力(li)有關外，還(huan)與資源(yuan)決定的(de)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量密切相關，不同電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)的(de)向上(shang)(shang)調峰能(neng)力(li)存在較大(da)差(cha)異。如水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)最(zui)大(da)出(chu)力(li)理論上(shang)(shang)可以達到預(yu)想出(chu)力(li)，但實際(ji)往往受來水(shui)約(yue)(yue)束不能(neng)達到上(shang)(shang)述最(zui)大(da)值，比如青海水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)冬季受來水(shui)影響(xiang)最(zui)大(da)出(chu)力(li)僅為其裝機的(de)50%~70%；儲能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)在系統電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量不足時也難(nan)以發揮(hui)作用；光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)類(lei)似，在太陽(yang)能(neng)資源(yuan)不好(hao)時，最(zui)大(da)出(chu)力(li)也會(hui)受限。因此，隨(sui)著新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統中限能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)逐步增加，其參加電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)平(ping)衡能(neng)力(li)不足，再加上(shang)(shang)季節(jie)性資源(yuan)不平(ping)衡，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統將(jiang)面臨(lin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)保障缺(que)乏穩(wen)定電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)支撐的(de)嚴(yan)峻形(xing)勢(shi)[5-16]。

國(guo)外電網事(shi)故情況梳(shu)理見(jian)表(biao)1。

表1國外電網事故情況梳理

Table 1 Summary of power grid accidents abroad

國外高比例新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系統發(fa)生的事(shi)故教訓表(biao)明，由于電(dian)(dian)(dian)力無法大(da)規(gui)(gui)模存(cun)儲的特性，以(yi)光伏、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)為(wei)主(zhu)的新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)不(bu)能(neng)完全(quan)(quan)替代常規(gui)(gui)穩(wen)定發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)組(zu)，難(nan)以(yi)應(ying)對極端天(tian)氣事(shi)件導(dao)致的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供應(ying)缺(que)口，加劇(ju)了(le)系統資源(yuan)(yuan)緊(jin)張時段的供應(ying)挑戰，亟需尋(xun)找既清潔(jie)又能(neng)穩(wen)定發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的調節電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)，保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統全(quan)(quan)時段安全(quan)(quan)可(ke)靠(kao)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)。

在國家雙碳目(mu)標背景下，光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)具備(bei)替(ti)代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)的(de)潛力，通過(guo)增加應急鍋爐備(bei)用發電(dian)(dian)應對極端天氣，可以(yi)全容(rong)量替(ti)代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)，作為季節性調峰(feng)電(dian)(dian)源滿足長時間尺度電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量平衡需要(yao)。本文(wen)首先基(ji)于光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)出(chu)(chu)(chu)力特性和系統高(gao)峰(feng)時段需求，分析光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)替(ti)代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)能力，然(ran)后研究提升其保(bao)證出(chu)(chu)(chu)力的(de)措施(shi)，提出(chu)(chu)(chu)測算(suan)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)應急備(bei)用發電(dian)(dian)量計算(suan)方法(fa)，最后通過(guo)算(suan)例進行驗證。

2、光熱電站完全替代火電規劃研究

2.1光熱電站替代火電能力分析

電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)中一般以滿足高(gao)峰(feng)負荷時段(duan)電(dian)力(li)平衡確定(ding)系統(tong)火電(dian)裝(zhuang)機需求(qiu)，光熱電(dian)站(zhan)要(yao)參加電(dian)力(li)平衡(替代火電(dian)裝(zhuang)機)也需要(yao)保(bao)障(zhang)高(gao)峰(feng)負荷時段(duan)電(dian)力(li)需求(qiu)。

由于光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電站發電與太陽直射輻射密(mi)切相關(guan)，某些天(tian)光(guang)(guang)照資源較(jiao)好時，再加(jia)上(shang)儲熱(re)裝(zhuang)置蓄熱(re)，光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電站發電量(liang)較(jiao)多，高峰負荷時段可保證(zheng)系統電力需(xu)求，全容量(liang)參(can)加(jia)電力平衡(heng)；而在陰天(tian)或多云天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)，光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電站發電量(liang)很(hen)小(xiao)，極端天(tian)氣(qi)(qi)光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電站可能出力為(wei)零，光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電站裝(zhuang)機不(bu)能得到充(chong)分利用，高峰負荷時段不(bu)能有效參(can)加(jia)電力平衡(heng)。

根據(ju)太陽能資源(yuan)模擬光(guang)熱(re)電站(zhan)出力，統計光(guang)熱(re)電站(zhan)出力特性，通過光(guang)熱(re)電站(zhan)日等效發電小時數Td來表征資源(yuan)好壞，定義(yi)為

Td=Qcsp/Pcsp(1)

式中：Qcsp為(wei)光(guang)熱電站日(ri)發電量；Pcsp為(wei)光(guang)熱電站裝機容量。

考慮系統(tong)供電可靠性保(bao)證(zheng)率(lv)，確定光熱(re)電站(zhan)日等效保(bao)證(zheng)小時數T′d，如取95%保(bao)證(zheng)率(lv)，即光熱(re)電站(zhan)能夠(gou)保(bao)證(zheng)95%的天(tian)數日發電量應在T′d以(yi)上。

根據光熱電站所在電力系統負(fu)荷(he)(he)特性，給定高峰負(fu)荷(he)(he)時(shi)段電力保證(zheng)需(xu)求Tf，分(fen)為以下3種(zhong)情形(xing)：

1）情形一。若(ruo)Td大于Tf，則光(guang)熱電站可在負荷高峰時段(duan)全容量(liang)參(can)加電力平(ping)衡(heng)，即參(can)加電力平(ping)衡(heng)的容量(liang)比例為(wei)100%。

2）情形二(er)。若Td小于(yu)Tf，則(ze)光熱電站參加(jia)電力平衡的容量比例即(ji)為Td/Tf。

3）情(qing)形三。若Td等(deng)于(yu)0，則光熱(re)電站參(can)加電力平衡的容量比例即為0。

系(xi)統(tong)(tong)可(ke)靠(kao)性(xing)保(bao)證率不同，光(guang)熱(re)電站(zhan)(zhan)參加(jia)平衡容量也不一樣。為了提(ti)高(gao)光(guang)熱(re)電站(zhan)(zhan)參加(jia)平衡容量比例，可(ke)以結(jie)合系(xi)統(tong)(tong)需要，通過增加(jia)應(ying)急鍋爐備用發電，使得光(guang)熱(re)電站(zhan)(zhan)能夠完全替代火電裝(zhuang)機，滿足系(xi)統(tong)(tong)電力保(bao)障需要。

2.2光熱電站應對季節(jie)性缺電能力(li)分(fen)析

新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)出(chu)力具(ju)有季節(jie)(jie)(jie)不(bu)(bu)均(jun)衡(heng)性，隨著新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)裝機占(zhan)比不(bu)(bu)斷(duan)提(ti)高，新(xin)型電(dian)力系統的(de)季節(jie)(jie)(jie)性電(dian)力電(dian)量不(bu)(bu)平衡(heng)凸(tu)顯，某(mou)些(xie)月份資源(yuan)較差的(de)情況下，系統電(dian)力電(dian)量缺額緊缺，目前來看在(zai)火(huo)電(dian)建設(she)空間(jian)逐步壓(ya)縮的(de)背景下，尚未有可(ke)解決季節(jie)(jie)(jie)性不(bu)(bu)平衡(heng)的(de)有效手段(duan)。光(guang)熱電(dian)站自身雖然受(shou)資源(yuan)影響也存在(zai)季節(jie)(jie)(jie)性不(bu)(bu)均(jun)衡(heng)情況，但可(ke)以通(tong)過增加應急(ji)鍋爐(lu)備用發電(dian)以完全替代火(huo)電(dian)裝機，完美解決季節(jie)(jie)(jie)性不(bu)(bu)均(jun)衡(heng)問題。

新型電力系統(tong)中，光熱完全替代火電分析步驟如下。

首先，系統(tong)中加入光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)，通過逐月電(dian)(dian)量平衡分析和(he)生產模擬，確定全時段電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量缺(que)(que)口，系統(tong)在時刻(ke)t的電(dian)(dian)力缺(que)(que)額記為(wei)ΔPt，光(guang)(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)在t時刻(ke)的出(chu)力記為(wei)Pcsp,t和(he)全年(nian)發電(dian)(dian)量Qcsp。

其次，根據系統(tong)需要，計算光(guang)熱(re)電站應急備用發電出力ΔPcsp,t，分為(wei)以下情形(xing)：

1）情(qing)形一。若Pcsp,t<Pcsp，ΔPt?Pcsp?Pcsp,t，則ΔPcsp,t=Pcsp?Pcsp,t。

2）情形二(er)。若(ruo)Pcsp,t<Pcsp，ΔPt<Pcsp?Pcsp,t，則ΔPcsp,t=ΔPt。

3）情(qing)形三。若Pcsp,t=Pcsp，則ΔPcsp,t=0。

最(zui)后，計算光熱電(dian)站全年應急備用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)ΔQcsp和應急備用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)占比δ，即

ΔQcsp=∑t=1365ΔPcsp,t(2)

δ=ΔQcsp/(Qcsp+ΔQcsp)(3)

3、算例

以青海為例(li)，預計2030年青海省全社會用電(dian)量(liang)達到(dao)1100億kW·h，最高發(fa)電(dian)負荷15500MW。青海新能源(yuan)規劃總裝機(ji)約57640MW，其中(zhong)光伏34000MW、風電(dian)16530MW、光熱5210MW。

3.1光熱(re)電站出(chu)力(li)特性分析

青海(hai)海(hai)西(xi)地(di)區(qu)光(guang)熱(re)資(zi)源豐富，烏圖(tu)(tu)、冷湖、德令哈地(di)區(qu)光(guang)熱(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)季(ji)節(jie)性明顯(xian)[17]。以100MW光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(鏡場面(mian)積148萬m2，太(tai)陽倍數(shu)(shu)2.9，儲熱(re)時(shi)長15h，發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機(ji)功率100MW，汽輪機(ji)功率217MWt，集(ji)熱(re)器(qi)功率630MWt)為例，根據(ju)典型(xing)年(nian)光(guang)照資(zi)源數(shu)(shu)據(ju)，模擬逐(zhu)小時(shi)出(chu)(chu)力，并進行特性統(tong)計分析。圖(tu)(tu)1給(gei)出(chu)(chu)了海(hai)西(xi)地(di)區(qu)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)典型(xing)年(nian)內各月發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量分布，可以看出(chu)(chu)，2—4月、9—10月光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量較(jiao)多，6—8月和(he)12月發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量較(jiao)少。圖(tu)(tu)2給(gei)出(chu)(chu)了海(hai)西(xi)地(di)區(qu)(烏圖(tu)(tu)、冷湖和(he)德令哈)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)典型(xing)年(nian)各月日(ri)(ri)等效發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)小時(shi)數(shu)(shu)小于(yu)4h天(tian)數(shu)(shu)統(tong)計。可以看出(chu)(chu)，烏圖(tu)(tu)、冷湖和(he)德令哈地(di)區(qu)全(quan)年(nian)日(ri)(ri)光(guang)熱(re)等效發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)小時(shi)數(shu)(shu)低于(yu)4h的天(tian)數(shu)(shu)分別為52、57、75天(tian)，在5—8月發(fa)(fa)(fa)生較(jiao)多。

圖1海西地區光熱電站典型年內各月發電量分布

Fig.1 Monthly power generation distribution of solar thermal power station in Haixi region in a typical year

圖2海(hai)西地區(qu)光熱電(dian)站典型年(nian)各月日等效發電(dian)小時(shi)數小于4h天(tian)數統計(ji)

Fig.2 Statistics of the number of days when the daily equivalent power generation hours of each month in a typical year of solar thermal power station in Haixi area are less than 4 hours

3.2光熱(re)替(ti)代火電能力(li)分(fen)析

圖(tu)3給出(chu)了青海(hai)電(dian)網(wang)典(dian)型日負(fu)荷曲(qu)(qu)線示意圖(tu)。可以看出(chu)，青海(hai)負(fu)荷曲(qu)(qu)線較平，疊加(jia)直流(liu)外送曲(qu)(qu)線后，冬(dong)季晚高峰負(fu)荷時段一(yi)般為18:00—21:00左右，因此，電(dian)源參加(jia)電(dian)力平衡需保證晚高峰時段4~6h電(dian)力需求。

圖(tu)3青海電網典(dian)型日(ri)負荷曲線(xian)示意圖(tu)

Fig.3 Typical daily load curve of Qinghai Power Grid

光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)站(zhan)配置儲熱罐，考慮連續陰天情況，預留部分熱量(liang)跨(kua)日調(diao)節。光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)站(zhan)日發電(dian)量(liang)優(you)化后，將(jiang)日發電(dian)量(liang)從大到(dao)小排(pai)序，按系(xi)統要求保證率，確(que)定光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)站(zhan)可調(diao)節日發電(dian)量(liang)。

表2給出(chu)了海西地區(qu)光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站替(ti)代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機比例測算結果。圖4給出(chu)了海西烏圖地區(qu)光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)等(deng)效小時(shi)數(shu)分布示意圖。可以(yi)(yi)看(kan)出(chu)，根據(ju)前面(mian)方法測算，按(an)95%保證率，不考(kao)慮(lv)跨日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)調(diao)節，光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)等(deng)效保證小時(shi)數(shu)為0，基本(ben)不能參加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)平衡(heng)，即無(wu)法替(ti)代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機；光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站儲熱(re)(re)時(shi)長15h(即儲熱(re)(re)容量(liang)可以(yi)(yi)支撐光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站滿(man)發15h)，根據(ju)天(tian)氣及(ji)出(chu)力(li)(li)(li)預(yu)測事先安排(pai)一定容量(liang)進行(xing)跨日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)調(diao)節，考(kao)慮(lv)跨日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)調(diao)節后光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)等(deng)效保證小時(shi)數(shu)為5.1h，可滿(man)足晚高峰(feng)負荷4h需求(qiu)，全(quan)容量(liang)參加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)平衡(heng)，完全(quan)替(ti)代(dai)相同容量(liang)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機。若按(an)100%保證率，光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站日(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)(ri)等(deng)效保證小時(shi)數(shu)為3.5h，參加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)平衡(heng)比例(火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)容量(liang)替(ti)代(dai)率)約87.5%。

表2海西地區光熱電站替代火電裝機比例測算

Table 2 Calculation of installed proportion of solar thermal power station replacing thermal power in Haixi area

圖4海西烏(wu)圖地區光(guang)熱電(dian)站日(ri)等效小時數分(fen)布示(shi)意圖

Fig.4 Distribution diagram of daily equivalent hours of photothermal power station in Haixi area

表3給出了不同保證(zheng)率情況(kuang)下，考慮跨(kua)日(ri)調(diao)節后的光(guang)熱電站(zhan)(zhan)參(can)加電力(li)平(ping)衡容量(liang)。可以看(kan)出，晚高(gao)峰時(shi)段按6h，光(guang)熱電站(zhan)(zhan)替代火電裝機比例有(you)所(suo)降低(di)，100%保證(zheng)率下光(guang)熱電站(zhan)(zhan)僅可替代約(yue)50%左右的火電裝機。

表3海西地區光熱在不同保證率下替代火電裝機比例測算

Table 3 Calculation of installed ratio of solar thermal power to thermal power under different guarantee rates in Haixi area

3.3光熱電站應對季節性缺電能力分析

青海以(yi)水電(dian)和新能源(yuan)為(wei)主，清潔能源(yuan)裝機占比達到(dao)90%以(yi)上(shang)，全(quan)年(nian)電(dian)量基本平衡，但存(cun)在季節性不平衡，冬季電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量缺額(e)較大。

圖(tu)5給(gei)出(chu)了青(qing)海水(shui)電(dian)月電(dian)量(liang)(liang)分布示(shi)意圖(tu)。可以看(kan)出(chu)，青(qing)海水(shui)電(dian)占比較大，受來水(shui)影響，夏季(ji)5—10月發電(dian)量(liang)(liang)相(xiang)對較多，冬季(ji)11—12月和1—2月發電(dian)量(liang)(liang)較少，季(ji)節(jie)性電(dian)量(liang)(liang)不平衡(heng)明顯。

圖5 2030年青海水電月發電量分布示意圖

Fig.5 Distribution diagram of monthly hydropower generation in Qinghai in 2030

圖6給出了青(qing)海新能源月(yue)電(dian)量(liang)分布示意(yi)圖。可以看出，青(qing)海新能源(含光伏、風電(dian)、光熱)受資源影響也(ye)存在較大的季節(jie)性(xing)電(dian)量(liang)不平衡，春季3—5月(yue)發電(dian)量(liang)較多，冬季11—12月(yue)發電(dian)量(liang)明(ming)顯(xian)減少。

圖6 2030年青(qing)海新能源月發電量(liang)分布(bu)示意圖

Fig.6 Distribution diagram of monthly power generation of new energy in Qinghai in 2030

表4給(gei)出了青(qing)海逐月電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)結果，其(qi)中示意圖(tu)見圖(tu)7。可以看出，由于水電(dian)和新能源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)均受資源(yuan)約束，季節性電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)不平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)一直存在，冬季兩者疊加后發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)減少較多(duo)，青(qing)海全省出現較大(da)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)缺(que)口。

表4 2030年青海電網(wang)逐月電量平衡結果

Table 4 Monthly power balance results of Qinghai Power Grid in 2030

圖(tu)7 2030年青海電網(wang)逐(zhu)月(yue)電量平衡示意圖(tu)

Fig.7 Schematic diagram of monthly power balance of Qinghai Power Grid in 2030

青(qing)海(hai)(hai)季(ji)節(jie)性缺(que)電(dian)(dian)問題(ti)一(yi)直存在(zai)，且(qie)隨(sui)著(zhu)新(xin)能源(yuan)裝機(ji)滲透率逐(zhu)(zhu)步(bu)提高(gao)，季(ji)節(jie)性缺(que)電(dian)(dian)問題(ti)日益加(jia)劇。目前青(qing)海(hai)(hai)的(de)(de)冬季(ji)缺(que)電(dian)(dian)問題(ti)仍(reng)主要依(yi)托(tuo)西(xi)北主網提供(gong)電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量(liang)支撐，但隨(sui)著(zhu)西(xi)北其他省份(fen)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)建設(she)空間進一(yi)步(bu)壓縮，再加(jia)上規劃通道建成(cheng)和負荷逐(zhu)(zhu)步(bu)增長，電(dian)(dian)力盈余逐(zhu)(zhu)步(bu)減小，給青(qing)海(hai)(hai)能夠(gou)提供(gong)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)力支撐有限，需要青(qing)海(hai)(hai)從(cong)自(zi)身內部尋求能夠(gou)解(jie)決季(ji)節(jie)性電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量(liang)不平衡的(de)(de)措施。目前來看，尚未(wei)有經(jing)濟可行的(de)(de)跨季(ji)調節(jie)手(shou)段，光熱電(dian)(dian)站在(zai)通過應急備(bei)用(yong)發電(dian)(dian)可完全(quan)替代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)，以(yi)應對(dui)上述季(ji)節(jie)性缺(que)電(dian)(dian)問題(ti)。

表(biao)5給(gei)出(chu)了(le)(le)海西(xi)地區(qu)(qu)光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)應急(ji)(ji)(ji)備(bei)用(yong)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運行指(zhi)標。圖8給(gei)出(chu)了(le)(le)海西(xi)地區(qu)(qu)光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)考慮(lv)應急(ji)(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)后(hou)的(de)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)分布。圖9給(gei)出(chu)了(le)(le)海西(xi)地區(qu)(qu)光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)考慮(lv)應急(ji)(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)后(hou)的(de)12月(yue)逐(zhu)時平(ping)均(jun)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)。可(ke)以看出(chu)，根據前述(shu)方(fang)法初(chu)步(bu)測算，全(quan)(quan)年應急(ji)(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)22億kW·h，其中(zhong)12月(yue)份需要應急(ji)(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)最大(da)(da)，約(yue)14億kW·h(占比(bi)64%)，小(xiao)時數提高約(yue)440h，占比(bi)僅約(yue)8.8%。冬季12月(yue)日最大(da)(da)應急(ji)(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)1.2億kW·h(全(quan)(quan)天24h連(lian)續應急(ji)(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運行)，小(xiao)時最大(da)(da)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)500萬kW·h(即(ji)滿功率發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian))，可(ke)全(quan)(quan)容量(liang)(liang)(liang)替(ti)代火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機。

表(biao)5海西地(di)區光(guang)熱電站應急備(bei)用發電運行指標

Table 5 Operation index of emergency standby power generation of solar thermal power station in Haixi area

圖8 2030年海西地區光熱(re)電站(zhan)發電量分布(bu)(含應急發電)

Fig.8 Power generation distribution of solar thermal power station in Haixi region in 2030(including emergency power generation)

圖9 2030年海西(xi)地區(qu)光熱電站12月逐(zhu)時平(ping)均發電量(含(han)應(ying)急發電)

Fig.9 Hourly average power generation of solar thermal power station in Haixi region in December 2030(including emergency power generation)

對不(bu)同(tong)光(guang)熱規(gui)模對應(ying)的應(ying)急備用發(fa)電比例(li)進行(xing)(xing)敏(min)感(gan)性分析(xi)，表6和圖10給出(chu)了2030年(nian)海西(xi)地區不(bu)同(tong)規(gui)模光(guang)熱電站(zhan)對應(ying)應(ying)急備用發(fa)電運行(xing)(xing)指標。可以看出(chu)，隨(sui)著光(guang)熱規(gui)模逐步(bu)減少，光(guang)熱應(ying)急備用發(fa)電比例(li)呈現(xian)逐步(bu)升高趨(qu)勢(shi)，由8.9%增加至20.2%。

表6海西(xi)地區不同規模(mo)光(guang)熱電(dian)站應急(ji)備(bei)用發電(dian)運行(xing)指(zhi)標(biao)

Table 6 Operation index of emergency standby power generation of different scale solar thermal power stations in Haixi region

圖10 2030年海西地區不同光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站規(gui)模發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量統計(含應(ying)急發(fa)(fa)電(dian))

Fig.10 Power generation statistics of different solar thermal power stations in Haixi region in 2030(including emergency power generation)

需(xu)要說明的(de)是，關于(yu)應急備用(yong)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(補(bu)燃)技術(shu)方案，可(ke)以采用(yong)天然氣補(bu)燃，也可(ke)以采用(yong)生物質補(bu)燃，還可(ke)與供熱相(xiang)結合，有待進(jin)一步論證。以天然氣補(bu)燃為例，初步估算增(zeng)加燃氣備用(yong)鍋爐投資約1000元(yuan)(yuan)/kW，青海(hai)天然氣價格按1.15元(yuan)(yuan)/m3，補(bu)燃發(fa)電(dian)(dian)效(xiao)率約40%左右，1 m3氣按發(fa)4 kW·h電(dian)(dian)考慮，補(bu)燃單位發(fa)電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本約0.2875元(yuan)(yuan)/(kW·h)。

4、結論

在國(guo)家雙(shuang)碳(tan)(tan)目標驅動下，我(wo)國(guo)新能源(yuan)裝機規模(mo)將更(geng)加快速(su)增長，而火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)建(jian)設空(kong)間進一步壓縮。未(wei)來(lai)新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)將面臨一定的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力保障問題(ti)(ti)，光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)站作為(wei)儲熱型新能源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站，通過(guo)增加應(ying)急(ji)鍋爐備(bei)用(yong)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，可(ke)以全(quan)時段替(ti)代火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機，為(wei)系統(tong)提(ti)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)支撐。同(tong)時可(ke)以實現以少(shao)量(liang)(liang)低碳(tan)(tan)能源(yuan)帶(dai)動更(geng)大規模(mo)可(ke)再生能源(yuan)開發(fa)，可(ke)以助(zhu)力我(wo)國(guo)新能源(yuan)開發(fa)目標和碳(tan)(tan)達(da)峰目標早日完(wan)成。研究結果初步表明，2030年前(qian)青海(hai)新增1000~5000MW光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)站，通過(guo)增加10%~20%左右應(ying)急(ji)備(bei)用(yong)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)可(ke)以完(wan)全(quan)替(ti)代相同(tong)容量(liang)(liang)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，從而應(ying)對(dui)季(ji)節性缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)問題(ti)(ti)或極端天(tian)氣下的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)不足(zu)問題(ti)(ti)，保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)力可(ke)靠供應(ying)。

注：本文轉自《電網技術》，作者為國家電網有限公司西北分部孫驍強、汪瑩、李慶海、楊楠、張小奇、霍超；中國電力工程顧問集團西北電力設計院有限公司李富春、楊攀峰、傅旭、李海偉。