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2016年以來,我國電力供需形勢總體平穩,“十三五”中后期,湖南、江西等局部地區電力供需形勢逐步趨緊。為保障電力供應安全,避免供需形勢大起大落,現結合“十四五”和中長期電力需求、電源發展情況,預判我國未來電力供需形勢,并提出保障措施建議。

一、“十三五”電力供需形勢回顧

電力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)應保障能(neng)力(li)(li)穩(wen)(wen)步夯(hang)實。“十三五”期間,我國(guo)電力(li)(li)基(ji)礎設(she)施建設(she)規(gui)模穩(wen)(wen)步增長,電力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)應安全(quan)性(xing)和可靠性(xing)持續提(ti)升,為新(xin)常態下(xia)經濟(ji)轉型升級(ji)和穩(wen)(wen)定增長提(ti)供(gong)(gong)有力(li)(li)支撐。截至2020年底(di),全(quan)社會用電量達(da)到7.5萬億千(qian)瓦時,全(quan)國(guo)發(fa)電裝(zhuang)機達(da)到22億千(qian)瓦,“西電東送”規(gui)模達(da)2.7億千(qian)瓦。

電(dian)力(li)(li)供需形(xing)勢總(zong)(zong)體平穩,局(ju)(ju)部地(di)區逐步顯(xian)現偏緊態勢。“十三五(wu)”期(qi)間(jian),我國電(dian)力(li)(li)供應由相對寬松(song)、局(ju)(ju)部過剩逐步轉(zhuan)向(xiang)總(zong)(zong)體平衡、局(ju)(ju)部偏緊,實(shi)施有序用電(dian)的范(fan)圍持續擴大、規模明顯(xian)增(zeng)加(jia)。2020年入冬以后,湖南、廣西、廣東等地(di)用電(dian)高(gao)峰(feng)(feng)時段電(dian)力(li)(li)供需緊張,最大錯避峰(feng)(feng)電(dian)力(li)(li)分別約(yue)287萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、65萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)和(he)35萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)。2021年1月,電(dian)力(li)(li)供需緊張形(xing)勢延續,湖南錯避峰(feng)(feng)電(dian)力(li)(li)約(yue)195萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa),江(jiang)西最大需求側(ce)響(xiang)應約(yue)59萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、錯避峰(feng)(feng)電(dian)力(li)(li)約(yue)122萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa),四川錯避峰(feng)(feng)電(dian)力(li)(li)約(yue)279萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa),江(jiang)蘇需求側(ce)響(xiang)應約(yue)266萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、推動輪休錯峰(feng)(feng)約(yue)1143萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa),安(an)徽錯避峰(feng)(feng)電(dian)力(li)(li)約(yue)115萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)。

供(gong)(gong)需(xu)兩端多重(zhong)因素(su)疊加引發局(ju)部(bu)地(di)區(qu)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)偏(pian)緊。一是大(da)部(bu)分(fen)地(di)區(qu)電(dian)力(li)需(xu)求超(chao)預(yu)期(qi)增長(chang),“十(shi)三(san)五”末全國超(chao)過2/3省(sheng)區(qu)用電(dian)量(liang)增長(chang)超(chao)出規劃預(yu)期(qi),主(zhu)要集中在(zai)東部(bu)沿海的(de)(de)(de)廣東、江蘇等地(di)區(qu)和(he)中西部(bu)地(di)區(qu)的(de)(de)(de)湖(hu)南、江西等地(di)區(qu)。二(er)是部(bu)分(fen)支撐性(xing)電(dian)源建設滯(zhi)(zhi)后,抽水蓄能(neng)、核(he)電(dian)、氣電(dian)裝機規模僅分(fen)別(bie)完成“十(shi)三(san)五”規劃目(mu)標的(de)(de)(de)50%、74%和(he)73%。三(san)是受配套(tao)電(dian)源建設進度滯(zhi)(zhi)后、送受端網架存(cun)在(zai)薄弱環節等因素(su)制約,部(bu)分(fen)跨省(sheng)區(qu)輸電(dian)通道利用率偏(pian)低,不足60%。四是新型儲能(neng)大(da)規模應(ying)用之前(qian),新能(neng)源的(de)(de)(de)隨機性(xing)、間歇性(xing)特征(zheng)決定了風(feng)電(dian)、光伏(fu)無(wu)法(fa)提供(gong)(gong)與(yu)其裝機容量(liang)相當(dang)的(de)(de)(de)保障出力(li)。總體上,需(xu)求側(ce)超(chao)預(yu)期(qi)發展和(he)供(gong)(gong)給(gei)側(ce)支撐能(neng)力(li)不足,是局(ju)部(bu)地(di)區(qu)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)趨緊的(de)(de)(de)主(zhu)要原因。

二、2021年電力供需形勢研判

全(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量預(yu)計大幅反彈增(zeng)長(chang)。2021年上(shang)半年,國內疫(yi)情得到(dao)有效控制,經濟用(yong)(yong)電(dian)快速(su)反彈,大量海外(wai)訂單回流,下游基(ji)礎設(she)(she)施建(jian)設(she)(she)需求旺(wang)盛,鋼鐵、有色(se)等(deng)產(chan)品價格處于(yu)高(gao)位(wei),企業(ye)生(sheng)產(chan)積(ji)極性較高(gao),1~5月全(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量累計同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)17.7%,是2011年以來的(de)最高(gao)水(shui)(shui)(shui)平。下半年,在碳達峰、碳中和(he)戰略(lve)目標下,風電(dian)、光(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)、新型儲能等(deng)供給(gei)側(ce)基(ji)礎設(she)(she)施建(jian)設(she)(she)將快速(su)擴張,需求側(ce)新能源(yuan)汽車(che)、充電(dian)基(ji)礎設(she)(she)施等(deng)建(jian)設(she)(she)將穩步(bu)推(tui)進(jin)(jin),帶動(dong)相關(guan)高(gao)技術產(chan)業(ye)和(he)裝備制造(zao)業(ye)快速(su)發(fa)展。新冠疫(yi)苗接種(zhong)工作的(de)全(quan)(quan)面推(tui)進(jin)(jin),將進(jin)(jin)一步(bu)減弱疫(yi)情對交通運(yun)輸、餐飲(yin)、住宿等(deng)服(fu)務業(ye)的(de)影(ying)響,帶動(dong)服(fu)務業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)長(chang)持(chi)續回升(sheng)。隨著鄉村(cun)振興戰略(lve)的(de)持(chi)續推(tui)進(jin)(jin),部(bu)分城鎮(zhen)老舊小(xiao)區改(gai)造(zao)完成,城鄉電(dian)氣化(hua)水(shui)(shui)(shui)平將穩步(bu)提升(sheng),居(ju)民生(sheng)活(huo)(huo)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)仍有較大增(zeng)長(chang)空(kong)間,但考慮到(dao)居(ju)民居(ju)家(jia)生(sheng)活(huo)(huo)總體時(shi)間要低于(yu)2020年水(shui)(shui)(shui)平,預(yu)計今年居(ju)民生(sheng)活(huo)(huo)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)長(chang)總體低于(yu)去年同期水(shui)(shui)(shui)平。綜合上(shang)述因素,預(yu)計2021年全(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量將超過(guo)8.1萬億千瓦時(shi),同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)8.0%以上(shang)。

總裝(zhuang)機(ji)規模穩步增長,支撐性電源裝(zhuang)機(ji)稍有不(bu)足。結合電源項目開工建設進度,預計2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)全國發電總裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量約24億(yi)千瓦(wa),較2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)增約2億(yi)千瓦(wa)。其中(zhong),支撐性電源裝(zhuang)機(ji)約17.2億(yi)千瓦(wa),較2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)新(xin)增約9700萬千瓦(wa),占新(xin)增裝(zhuang)機(ji)的一半左右,同比增長約6%,低(di)于用電增速。

預計(ji)今(jin)年(nian)全(quan)(quan)國電(dian)(dian)力(li)供需(xu)形勢(shi)基(ji)本平穩,華(hua)(hua)北(bei)(bei)、華(hua)(hua)東(dong)(dong)、華(hua)(hua)中(zhong)、南(nan)方(fang)局(ju)部地(di)區(qu)高峰時段存在(zai)較大電(dian)(dian)力(li)缺(que)口。根據(ju)測(ce)算,2021年(nian)全(quan)(quan)國大部分地(di)區(qu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供需(xu)基(ji)本平衡。預計(ji)浙江、湖北(bei)(bei)、湖南(nan)、廣東(dong)(dong)、廣西、云南(nan)等省份局(ju)部地(di)區(qu)高峰時段將出現電(dian)(dian)力(li)供需(xu)緊張的(de)(de)情況,此(ci)外,華(hua)(hua)北(bei)(bei)地(di)區(qu)的(de)(de)冀南(nan)、蒙西、山東(dong)(dong),華(hua)(hua)東(dong)(dong)地(di)區(qu)的(de)(de)江蘇、安徽,華(hua)(hua)中(zhong)地(di)區(qu)的(de)(de)河南(nan)、江西、四川、重慶(qing),南(nan)方(fang)地(di)區(qu)的(de)(de)貴(gui)州(zhou)用電(dian)(dian)高峰時段電(dian)(dian)力(li)供需(xu)偏緊。上述地(di)區(qu)需(xu)緊密跟蹤氣(qi)象及電(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)求變化,加強電(dian)(dian)煤儲備(bei)、發電(dian)(dian)燃氣(qi)供應(ying)、電(dian)(dian)網安全(quan)(quan)可靠供電(dian)(dian)、有序用電(dian)(dian)等保障(zhang)措施,提(ti)前做好應(ying)急保障(zhang)方(fang)案。

三、“十四五”電力供需形勢研判

電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)將(jiang)保持剛(gang)性增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。“十四五”期(qi)間(jian),我國將(jiang)加大(da)(da)“兩新(xin)一重(zhong)”建設力(li)(li)(li)度,加快構建雙(shuang)循環新(xin)發展(zhan)格(ge)局,經(jing)濟發展(zhan)內需(xu)(xu)持續擴(kuo)大(da)(da),預計(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)將(jiang)保持中(zhong)速(su)剛(gang)性增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。從(cong)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)驅動力(li)(li)(li)來看(kan),制造(zao)強國的發展(zhan)目(mu)標(biao)決定(ding)了(le)第(di)二產業用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)仍(reng)將(jiang)剛(gang)性增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),大(da)(da)數據(ju)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)動車、5G通信等(deng)將(jiang)帶動第(di)三產業用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)持續快速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang),人民對美好(hao)生(sheng)活的用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)(xu)要(yao)將(jiang)推動居(ju)民生(sheng)活用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)穩步增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。此外,為(wei)(wei)實現碳達峰、碳中(zhong)和(he)戰略目(mu)標(biao),電(dian)(dian)(dian)能替代力(li)(li)(li)度將(jiang)持續加大(da)(da),成為(wei)(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)的重(zhong)要(yao)動力(li)(li)(li)。綜合(he)多(duo)方(fang)面(mian)因素,預計(ji)2025年全社會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)將(jiang)達到9.5~9.8萬億千瓦時,“十四五”年均增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)4.8%~5.5%。

傳(chuan)統支撐(cheng)性電(dian)(dian)源穩(wen)步增(zeng)長,新(xin)(xin)能源裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模持續提升。“十(shi)(shi)四五”期間(jian),水電(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)等長周期非化(hua)石(shi)電(dian)(dian)源投(tou)產時(shi)序(xu)已基(ji)本明(ming)確,預計常規(gui)水電(dian)(dian)、抽水蓄能、核電(dian)(dian)分別新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)約(yue)4100萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、3100萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、2000萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦,2025年分別達(da)到(dao)約(yue)3.8億千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、6200萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、7000萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦。此外(wai),預計2025年新(xin)(xin)型(xing)儲能達(da)到(dao)3000萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦以上,氣電(dian)(dian)達(da)到(dao)約(yue)1.5億千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦。“十(shi)(shi)四五”期間(jian),嚴控煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)項目,結合電(dian)(dian)力供需(xu)(xu)形(xing)勢(shi),科學(xue)確定并優(you)化(hua)調整(zheng)布局,發揮托底保障支撐(cheng)作用。為實現2025年非化(hua)石(shi)能源占一次能源消費比(bi)重(zhong)20%左右(you)的目標,2025年風電(dian)(dian)、光(guang)伏發電(dian)(dian)、生物質發電(dian)(dian)等新(xin)(xin)能源裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)需(xu)(xu)大規(gui)模發展(zhan)。

全(quan)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)需形勢(shi)總體趨(qu)緊(jin),面臨系統性硬缺(que)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)風(feng)險(xian)。考(kao)(kao)慮(lv)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、新(xin)型儲(chu)能(neng)等按(an)(an)期(qi)投(tou)產;結(jie)(jie)(jie)合(he)各地區光伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)特(te)性與系統負荷特(te)性匹配(pei)情況,確定(ding)光伏參與電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)平(ping)衡規模(mo);結(jie)(jie)(jie)合(he)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)滲透率和風(feng)資源(yuan)條件,風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)按(an)(an)照(zhao)(zhao)5%參與電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)平(ping)衡;在(zai)此基礎上,新(xin)型儲(chu)能(neng)規模(mo)全(quan)部納入(ru)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)平(ping)衡。此外(wai),各地區分別按(an)(an)照(zhao)(zhao)3%~5%采取(qu)需求側響應措施,充(chong)(chong)分考(kao)(kao)慮(lv)區域電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網備用(yong)共享,優(you)化各地區備用(yong)容(rong)量,充(chong)(chong)分提升現有(you)跨省(sheng)區輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通道能(neng)力(li)(li),優(you)化省(sheng)間電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)互濟,嚴(yan)控煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目,按(an)(an)需投(tou)產。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)平(ping)衡測算結(jie)(jie)(jie)果表明,“十四五(wu)”期(qi)間全(quan)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)需形勢(shi)總體趨(qu)緊(jin),電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)缺(que)口逐年(nian)擴大,若不(bu)及時加強支撐能(neng)力(li)(li)建設,或將出現系統性硬缺(que)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)風(feng)險(xian),主要集中(zhong)在(zai)華北、華東、華中(zhong)、南(nan)方等部分地區。

按照當前支撐電(dian)源建設進度,2023年京津(jin)冀魯、華(hua)東(dong)、華(hua)中東(dong)四省、重慶、粵桂黔等地區(qu)電(dian)力缺口分(fen)別在1000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、400萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、1000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、400萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)和200萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)以上,2025年進一(yi)步擴大到2500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、1700萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、2500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、700萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)和1000萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)。

四、中長期電力供需形勢研判

為(wei)支撐煤炭、石油、天然氣(qi)盡早(zao)實(shi)現(xian)碳達(da)峰,我國將(jiang)實(shi)現(xian)更高水(shui)平(ping)電氣(qi)化,預計2045年(nian)前后用電趨于飽和,人(ren)均用電量(liang)達(da)到(dao)8500千瓦時(shi)以上。中長期我國電力需求仍將(jiang)持續增長,預計2030年(nian)、2035年(nian)全(quan)社(she)會用電量(liang)將(jiang)分(fen)(fen)別達(da)到(dao)11.5萬億(yi)千瓦時(shi)、13.1萬億(yi)千瓦時(shi),五年(nian)年(nian)均增速分(fen)(fen)別約3.9%、2.6%。

以“十(shi)四五”電力供需基本平衡為基礎(chu),結合各類電源(yuan)發展潛力進行測(ce)算(suan),中(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)全國(guo)仍將存在較大電力缺口(kou),電力供應緊張的地區(qu)主要(yao)集中(zhong)在華東(dong)、華中(zhong)、粵桂黔地區(qu),電力缺口(kou)分別在1600萬(wan)千瓦、4200萬(wan)千瓦、2500萬(wan)千瓦以上。

五、電力供應保障措施建議

“十四五”及中長期,在(zai)碳達峰、碳中和戰略背(bei)景下,為服務保障(zhang)經濟高質量發展,需堅守電力(li)安全底線,加快構建產(chan)供儲(chu)銷綜合電力(li)保障(zhang)體系,加強電力(li)供需形勢監(jian)測預(yu)警(jing),從源、網(wang)、荷、儲(chu)各(ge)環節多(duo)措并舉提升(sheng)電力(li)供應保障(zhang)能力(li)。

大幅提(ti)升用戶(hu)側(ce)需(xu)求(qiu)響(xiang)(xiang)應能力(li)。鼓勵電(dian)價(jia)敏感型高載能負(fu)荷(he)改善工(gong)藝和生產流(liu)程(cheng),積極發(fa)展電(dian)動車、新型儲(chu)能、電(dian)供暖(nuan)等可中(zhong)斷負(fu)荷(he)靈(ling)活(huo)參與的智能高效用電(dian)模(mo)式,完善峰(feng)谷(gu)電(dian)價(jia)和需(xu)求(qiu)響(xiang)(xiang)應價(jia)格機(ji)制(zhi),釋(shi)放(fang)居民、商業和一般工(gong)業負(fu)荷(he)的用電(dian)彈性,引導用戶(hu)優化用電(dian)模(mo)式。力(li)爭(zheng)到(dao)2030年,全國(guo)各地區需(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)響(xiang)(xiang)應能力(li)達到(dao)最大負(fu)荷(he)的5%以上。

積極優化布(bu)局(ju)新(xin)型儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站。推動新(xin)型儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)規模(mo)化發展,加快推進(jin)新(xin)型儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)技術研發和應用。在西部新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)富集地區(qu)以新(xin)型友好綠色電(dian)(dian)(dian)站模(mo)式布(bu)局(ju)一批(pi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)側(ce)新(xin)型儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng),在中(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)部負荷(he)中(zhong)(zhong)心地區(qu)以源(yuan)網荷(he)儲(chu)模(mo)式布(bu)局(ju)一批(pi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網側(ce)和用戶側(ce)新(xin)型儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng),在偏遠地區(qu)結合分(fen)布(bu)式新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)布(bu)局(ju)一批(pi)新(xin)型儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng),重點解決獨立供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)問(wen)題。

著力(li)提(ti)(ti)(ti)升新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)站支(zhi)撐能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)。鼓勵建設系(xi)統友好型新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)站,探索市場化商業(ye)模式,開(kai)展多能(neng)(neng)(neng)互補和(he)源(yuan)(yuan)網荷儲(chu)一體(ti)化運營示范,通過合(he)理配(pei)置(zhi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)設施、提(ti)(ti)(ti)高能(neng)(neng)(neng)量轉換效率、提(ti)(ti)(ti)升長時間尺度新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)預測水(shui)平、智慧化調度運行等手段,提(ti)(ti)(ti)升新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)容量置(zhi)信度,為電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統提(ti)(ti)(ti)供必要的容量支(zhi)撐和(he)調節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)。

提升存(cun)量輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)利用率(lv),推動已明確輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)盡快(kuai)(kuai)投(tou)產(chan)。“十四五”期間,針對(dui)準東至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)皖南(nan)、上海廟至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)山東、晉北至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)江蘇(su)(su)、錫(xi)盟至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)泰州等存(cun)量輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao),通(tong)(tong)過加強送(song)受端地區電(dian)(dian)(dian)網網架、加快(kuai)(kuai)配套(tao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源投(tou)產(chan)等措施來提升輸(shu)送(song)能(neng)(neng)力,合計約4000萬千(qian)瓦(wa)。加快(kuai)(kuai)推進陜北至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)湖北、雅中至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)江西、白鶴灘至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)江蘇(su)(su)、白鶴灘至(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)浙江等已明確輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)及配套(tao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源建設投(tou)產(chan),確保“十四五”初(chu)期新增3200萬千(qian)瓦(wa)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)力充分(fen)發揮。

持續提高電力(li)(li)資(zi)源配置能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)與質量。“十四五”期間(jian),在新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源支(zhi)撐能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)大幅(fu)經濟可(ke)(ke)靠提升以(yi)前(qian),考慮京津(jin)冀、華東、華中(zhong)地區(qu)環保約束增強、東部(bu)省份率先碳達(da)峰等,需(xu)依托北方綜合能(neng)(neng)(neng)源基地加快開(kai)工建設一批輸電通道,提升中(zhong)東部(bu)重(zhong)點地區(qu)的電力(li)(li)支(zhi)撐能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)。中(zhong)長期,重(zhong)點構建以(yi)水(shui)電、新型儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)為基礎保障,新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源最大化利用(yong)和(he)開(kai)發(fa)的新模式。以(yi)可(ke)(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源外(wai)送(song)為重(zhong)點,超前(qian)謀(mou)劃大型清(qing)潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)源基地外(wai)送(song)通道和(he)接(jie)續方案(an)。力(li)(li)爭到2030年,跨(kua)省跨(kua)區(qu)電力(li)(li)資(zi)源配置能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)達(da)到4.2億(yi)千瓦(wa)以(yi)上(shang)。

嚴控(kong)煤電項目(mu)按需建設,支撐(cheng)遠期有序(xu)退(tui)出(chu)。堅持系統觀念(nian),統籌電力(li)(li)(li)(li)綠色(se)低碳(tan)轉型和(he)安全供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)保(bao)障,在系統友好型新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源電站大規模應(ying)(ying)用(yong)(yong)并(bing)逐步替(ti)代傳(chuan)統支撐(cheng)性電源以(yi)前,用(yong)(yong)好存量(liang)火電,結合供(gong)(gong)(gong)需形(xing)勢科學確定并(bing)優化調整項目(mu)布局,充(chong)分發(fa)揮其系統支撐(cheng)和(he)調節作用(yong)(yong),確保(bao)足夠的(de)(de)電力(li)(li)(li)(li)安全供(gong)(gong)(gong)應(ying)(ying)保(bao)障能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)(li),為經濟高質量(liang)發(fa)展提供(gong)(gong)(gong)堅實的(de)(de)電力(li)(li)(li)(li)保(bao)障。與此同時,加快(kuai)突破新(xin)型電力(li)(li)(li)(li)系統關(guan)鍵技術,支撐(cheng)以(yi)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源為主體的(de)(de)新(xin)型電力(li)(li)(li)(li)系統建設,為碳(tan)達峰、碳(tan)中和(he)目(mu)標下的(de)(de)煤電有序(xu)退(tui)出(chu)奠定基礎(chu)。

強化重(zhong)點地(di)區(qu)(qu)清潔(jie)能源(yuan)產(chan)業布(bu)(bu)局(ju)。在(zai)做好(hao)供(gong)給側保障能力建設(she)的同時,積極引導優化調(diao)(diao)整(zheng)(zheng)產(chan)業結構(gou),鼓(gu)勵適應新(xin)能源(yuan)的產(chan)業優先發展。在(zai)內蒙(meng)古、青海(hai)、西藏等(deng)(deng)西部資源(yuan)條件好(hao)的地(di)區(qu)(qu)重(zhong)點布(bu)(bu)局(ju)新(xin)型儲(chu)能、新(xin)能源(yuan)等(deng)(deng)產(chan)業集群,在(zai)江蘇、浙江、福建、廣東、廣西等(deng)(deng)地(di)區(qu)(qu)重(zhong)點布(bu)(bu)局(ju)海(hai)上風電(dian)(dian)產(chan)業集群。通過引導產(chan)業布(bu)(bu)局(ju)調(diao)(diao)整(zheng)(zheng),有效縮短電(dian)(dian)力資源(yuan)配置距(ju)離(li),促(cu)進清潔(jie)能源(yuan)就地(di)開發高效利用。