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2月2日，記(ji)者在中(zhong)國電(dian)力(li)企(qi)業聯(lian)合會召開(kai)的“2020-2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)度全(quan)(quan)國電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需形(xing)勢(shi)分析(xi)預測報告”新(xin)聞發(fa)布會上獲悉，預計(ji)2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)社會用電(dian)量(liang)增速前高后低，全(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增長6%-7%。預計(ji)2021年(nian)(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)國基建新(xin)增發(fa)電(dian)裝機容量(liang)1.8億千(qian)瓦左(zuo)右(you)，其(qi)中(zhong)非化石能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)裝機投產1.4億千(qian)瓦左(zuo)右(you)。

《預(yu)測報告》預(yu)計，2021年全國(guo)電力(li)供(gong)(gong)需總體(ti)平衡(heng)、局(ju)部(bu)地(di)區高峰時(shi)段電力(li)供(gong)(gong)應偏緊甚至緊張。分(fen)區域看，東(dong)北(bei)(bei)、西北(bei)(bei)電力(li)供(gong)(gong)應存在富余；華東(dong)電力(li)供(gong)(gong)需平衡(heng)；華北(bei)(bei)電力(li)供(gong)(gong)應偏緊。

2020年(nian)(nian)，全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)7.51萬億千瓦時(shi)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長3.1%，“十(shi)三(san)五”時(shi)期(qi)全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)年(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)長5.7%，經濟運(yun)行穩步(bu)復蘇是用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速回升的最主要原因(yin)。全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)季(ji)度(du)增(zeng)(zeng)速變化趨勢，反映(ying)出隨(sui)著(zhu)疫情(qing)得到有(you)效控制以及國(guo)家逆周期(qi)調控政(zheng)策逐步(bu)落地，復工(gong)復產、復商復市持續取得明(ming)顯成效，國(guo)民經濟持續穩定恢復。

此(ci)外，《預測(ce)報告(gao)》認為，當前(qian)，在國(guo)家加快構建以(yi)國(guo)內(nei)大(da)循環(huan)(huan)為主體(ti)、國(guo)內(nei)國(guo)際雙循環(huan)(huan)相互促進(jin)的(de)新發(fa)(fa)展格局背景下，在“中國(guo)二氧化碳排放(fang)力(li)爭(zheng)2030年(nian)前(qian)達到峰值,努力(li)爭(zheng)取2060年(nian)前(qian)實現碳中和(he)”的(de)目標(biao)要求下，一方面，電力(li)行業(ye)(ye)要保障電力(li)安全(quan)可靠供應，以(yi)滿足(zu)國(guo)民經濟發(fa)(fa)展目標(biao)以(yi)及人民生活用電需求；另(ling)一方面，電力(li)行業(ye)(ye)需加快清(qing)潔(jie)低碳供應結構轉型進(jin)程，實現碳減排目標(biao)。

結合(he)(he)當前電(dian)力供需形勢和(he)(he)行業(ye)發(fa)(fa)展趨勢，《預測(ce)報告》建(jian)(jian)議，加快和(he)(he)完善(shan)碳市(shi)場建(jian)(jian)設，根據(ju)碳達峰、碳中(zhong)和(he)(he)要求，完善(shan)全國碳市(shi)場配額分(fen)配方案，科學測(ce)算全國碳市(shi)場發(fa)(fa)電(dian)行業(ye)配額總量(liang)和(he)(he)基準(zhun)值。合(he)(he)理統籌各地區配額分(fen)配，審慎核定各省設定的(de)“地區供電(dian)配額修正(zheng)系數”，用(yong)市(shi)場機制更好(hao)發(fa)(fa)揮煤電(dian)的(de)兜底保供和(he)(he)靈活(huo)性(xing)調節電(dian)源作用(yong)。完善(shan)交易機制和(he)(he)規則，盡快發(fa)(fa)布(bu)中(zhong)國核證減排(pai)量(liang)（CCER）抵消機制，推動(dong)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)企業(ye)從集團和(he)(he)企業(ye)層面積極參與碳交易，實現低成本減排(pai)和(he)(he)技術創(chuang)新。

以下為分析預測報告全文：

2020年(nian)，面對新冠肺炎疫(yi)(yi)情巨大沖擊(ji)和(he)復(fu)雜嚴峻(jun)的國內外環(huan)境，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行(xing)業堅(jian)(jian)決(jue)貫徹落實(shi)黨中央、國務院決(jue)策部署，積極(ji)推進電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)企業疫(yi)(yi)情防控和(he)復(fu)工(gong)復(fu)產(chan)，為社會疫(yi)(yi)情防控和(he)復(fu)工(gong)復(fu)產(chan)、復(fu)商(shang)復(fu)市提供(gong)堅(jian)(jian)強電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)保障；四(si)季度電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)消(xiao)費實(shi)現較快增長(chang)，經濟社會發展對電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)的消(xiao)費需求已恢(hui)復(fu)常態。

一、2020年全國電力供需情況

（一）電力(li)消費需(xu)求情(qing)況

2020年，全(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)7.51萬(wan)億千瓦時，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長3.1%，“十(shi)三五”時期全(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)年均增(zeng)(zeng)長5.7%。2020年，各季度全(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別為(wei)-6.5%、3.9%、5.8%、8.1%，經濟(ji)運行穩步復(fu)蘇是(shi)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)回升的最(zui)主(zhu)要原因(yin)。全(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)季度增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)變化趨勢，反映出隨著疫情得(de)到(dao)有(you)效(xiao)控(kong)(kong)制(zhi)以及國家逆(ni)周期調控(kong)(kong)政策逐(zhu)步落地，復(fu)工復(fu)產、復(fu)商復(fu)市持續取得(de)明顯成效(xiao)，國民經濟(ji)持續穩定(ding)恢復(fu)。

一(yi)是第(di)一(yi)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)10.2%，連續(xu)(xu)三個季度增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)超(chao)過10%。2020年(nian)，第(di)一(yi)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)859億(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)10.2%，各季度增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別為4.0%、11.9%、11.6%和12.0%。第(di)一(yi)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的快速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)主要是近年(nian)來(lai)國(guo)家加大農網改造升(sheng)級力(li)度，村(cun)(cun)村(cun)(cun)通動(dong)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，鄉(xiang)村(cun)(cun)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)條件持續(xu)(xu)改善，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)逐步代替(ti)人(ren)力(li)和畜(chu)力(li)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)機代替(ti)柴油機，以(yi)及持續(xu)(xu)深入推進脫貧攻堅戰，帶動(dong)鄉(xiang)村(cun)(cun)發展，促進第(di)一(yi)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)潛力(li)釋放。

二是第二產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)同比增(zeng)長(chang)2.5%，高(gao)(gao)技術(shu)及裝(zhuang)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速(su)(su)連續兩個季(ji)度(du)超過(guo)10%。2020年，第二產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)5.12萬億千瓦(wa)時，同比增(zeng)長(chang)2.5%，各季(ji)度(du)增(zeng)速(su)(su)分別(bie)為-8.8%、3.3%、5.8%、7.6%，復工復產持續推進(jin)拉動各季(ji)度(du)增(zeng)速(su)(su)持續回(hui)升(sheng)。2020年，制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)2.9%，其中，高(gao)(gao)技術(shu)及裝(zhuang)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、四(si)大(da)高(gao)(gao)載能行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、其他制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、消費品(pin)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速(su)(su)分別(bie)為4.0%、3.6%、3.3%、-1.8%。三(san)、四(si)季(ji)度(du)，高(gao)(gao)技術(shu)及裝(zhuang)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速(su)(su)分別(bie)為10.8%、11.9%，是當(dang)前工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)高(gao)(gao)質量(liang)(liang)發展中展現出來的一大(da)亮點。

三(san)(san)是第三(san)(san)產業(ye)用電量同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長1.9%，信(xin)息傳輸/軟件和(he)信(xin)息技術(shu)服務(wu)業(ye)用電量持續高速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長。2020年(nian)，第三(san)(san)產業(ye)用電量1.21萬億千瓦時，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長1.9%，各季度增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別為-8.3%、0.5%、5.9%、8.4%，隨著復商復市的持續推(tui)進，第三(san)(san)產業(ye)用電量增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)逐季上(shang)升。2020年(nian)，信(xin)息傳輸/軟件和(he)信(xin)息技術(shu)服務(wu)業(ye)用電量同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長23.9%，得益(yi)于大數據、云計算、物聯網等(deng)新技術(shu)快(kuai)速(su)推(tui)廣應用，并促進在線(xian)(xian)辦公、生活服務(wu)平臺、文化娛(yu)樂、在線(xian)(xian)教育等(deng)線(xian)(xian)上(shang)產業(ye)的高速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長。

四是城鄉居(ju)民(min)生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)6.9%，四季(ji)度用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)快(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)。2020年，城鄉居(ju)民(min)生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)1.09萬億千(qian)瓦時，同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)6.9%，各季(ji)度增(zeng)速(su)分別(bie)為3.5%、10.6%、5.0%、10.0%，四季(ji)度居(ju)民(min)生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)再次實現快(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)，主要是12月份(fen)低溫天氣(qi)因素(su)拉(la)動采暖負荷及電(dian)(dian)量(liang)快(kuai)速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)。

五是西(xi)部地區(qu)(qu)用(yong)電(dian)增速領先，全國有27個省份(fen)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)為正(zheng)增長(chang)。2020年，東、中、西(xi)部和東北地區(qu)(qu)全社會用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增速分別為2.1%、2.4%、5.6%、1.6%。全國共有27個省份(fen)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)為正(zheng)增長(chang)，其中，云南、四(si)川、甘(gan)肅、內蒙古、西(xi)藏、廣西(xi)、江(jiang)西(xi)、安徽等8個省份(fen)增速超(chao)過5%。

（二）電力(li)生(sheng)產供應情況

截(jie)至(zhi)(zhi)2020年(nian)(nian)底(di)，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口徑(jing)發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)22.0億千(qian)瓦(wa)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)9.5%；“十三五”時(shi)期，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口徑(jing)發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)7.6%，其中(zhong)非化石能(neng)源(yuan)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機年(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)13.1%，占(zhan)總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)從(cong)2015年(nian)(nian)底(di)的(de)(de)(de)34.8%上升(sheng)(sheng)至(zhi)(zhi)2020年(nian)(nian)底(di)的(de)(de)(de)44.8%，提升(sheng)(sheng)10個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)；煤電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)速為3.7%，占(zhan)總(zong)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)從(cong)2015年(nian)(nian)底(di)的(de)(de)(de)59.0%下(xia)降至(zhi)(zhi)2020年(nian)(nian)底(di)的(de)(de)(de)49.1%。2020年(nian)(nian)，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口徑(jing)發(fa)(fa)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)為7.62萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.0%；“十三五”時(shi)期，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口徑(jing)發(fa)(fa)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)5.8%，其中(zhong)非化石能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)10.6%，占(zhan)總(zong)發(fa)(fa)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)從(cong)2015年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)27.2%上升(sheng)(sheng)至(zhi)(zhi)2020年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)33.9%，提升(sheng)(sheng)6.7個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)；煤電發(fa)(fa)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)年(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)速為3.5%，占(zhan)總(zong)發(fa)(fa)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)從(cong)2015年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)67.9%下(xia)降至(zhi)(zhi)2020年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)60.8%，降低7.1個(ge)(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)(dian)。

一是電(dian)(dian)力投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長9.6%，非化石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)快速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長。2020年，納入行業(ye)(ye)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)統計體系的主要(yao)電(dian)(dian)力企業(ye)(ye)合(he)計完成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)9944億元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長9.6%。電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)工程建(jian)設(she)完成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)5244億元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長29.2%，其中風電(dian)(dian)、太陽能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)分(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長70.6%、66.4%、19.0%；電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)工程建(jian)設(she)完成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)4699億元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降6.2%，主要(yao)因(yin)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)企業(ye)(ye)提(ti)前一年完成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)國家新一輪農網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)改造(zao)升(sheng)級任務，占(zhan)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)比(bi)重(zhong)達44.3%的35千伏(fu)及以下(xia)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降20.2%。

二是(shi)煤電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)首(shou)次(ci)低于(yu)50%，新增并網(wang)(wang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模(mo)創(chuang)歷(li)史新高。2020年(nian)，全國(guo)新增發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)19087萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，同比(bi)增加8587萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，其中新增并網(wang)(wang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)、太陽能發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)分別為7167萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦和4820萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，新增并網(wang)(wang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模(mo)創(chuang)歷(li)史新高。截(jie)至2020年(nian)底(di)，全國(guo)全口徑(jing)(jing)(jing)水電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)3.7億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、火(huo)電(dian)(dian)12.5億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、核電(dian)(dian)4989萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、并網(wang)(wang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)2.8億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦、并網(wang)(wang)太陽能發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)2.5億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦。全國(guo)全口徑(jing)(jing)(jing)非化石能源發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)合計9.8億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，占(zhan)全口徑(jing)(jing)(jing)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)的比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為44.8%，比(bi)上年(nian)底(di)提高2.8個百分點(dian)。全口徑(jing)(jing)(jing)煤電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)10.8億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦，占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)的比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)為49.1%，首(shou)次(ci)降至50%以(yi)下。

三(san)是并(bing)網(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)快(kuai)速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。2020年，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.0%。其中，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為1.36萬億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.1%；火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)為5.17萬億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.5%；核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)3662億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)5.0%。并(bing)網(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和并(bing)網(wang)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)分別(bie)為4665、2611億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)分別(bie)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)15.1%和16.6%。全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑非化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)2.58萬億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)7.9%，占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的比(bi)(bi)重為33.9%，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)提(ti)高1.2個百分點。全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)4.63萬億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)1.7%，占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)口(kou)(kou)徑發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的比(bi)(bi)重為60.8%，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)降低1.4個百分點。

四(si)是(shi)水電(dian)、核電(dian)設(she)(she)(she)備(bei)利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高。2020年，全國發電(dian)設(she)(she)(she)備(bei)平均利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)3758小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)低(di)70小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。其中，水電(dian)設(she)(she)(she)備(bei)利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)3827小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，歷(li)年來首次突破3800小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高130小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；核電(dian)設(she)(she)(she)備(bei)利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)7453小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高59小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；火(huo)電(dian)設(she)(she)(she)備(bei)利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)4216小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)低(di)92小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，其中煤電(dian)4340小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)低(di)89小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；并網風電(dian)設(she)(she)(she)備(bei)利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)為2073小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)低(di)10小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；太陽能發電(dian)設(she)(she)(she)備(bei)利(li)用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)1281小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)降(jiang)低(di)10小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。

五(wu)是跨區(qu)送(song)電(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)13.4%。2020年，全國完成跨區(qu)送(song)電(dian)量(liang)6130億(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)13.4%，各季度增(zeng)(zeng)速分別為6.8%、11.7%、17.0%、15.3%。全國跨省(sheng)送(song)電(dian)量(liang)15362億(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.4%，各季度增(zeng)(zeng)速分別為-5.2%、5.9%、9.9%、12.3%。

六是市場交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長11.7%，交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)占全社會用電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)比重同(tong)(tong)比提高。2020年，全國(guo)各電(dian)力交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)中心累計(ji)組(zu)織完成市場交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)31663億千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長11.7%；其(qi)中，全國(guo)電(dian)力市場中長期(qi)電(dian)力直接交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)合(he)計(ji)為24760億千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長13.7%，占全社會用電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)比重為32.9%，同(tong)(tong)比提高2.8個(ge)百分點。

七是(shi)四(si)季(ji)度電(dian)煤供應偏緊，電(dian)煤市場價格(ge)(ge)持續攀(pan)升(sheng)。受經濟回暖(nuan)及低溫寒流影響，四(si)季(ji)度電(dian)煤需求(qiu)大(da)幅增(zeng)加，電(dian)煤供應偏緊，推高電(dian)煤市場價格(ge)(ge)。根據中國沿(yan)海電(dian)煤采購價格(ge)(ge)指(zhi)數(shu)（CECI沿(yan)海指(zhi)數(shu)）顯示(shi)，10月(yue)份市場電(dian)煤價格(ge)(ge)進入“紅色區間”后持續攀(pan)升(sheng)。

（三）全國電力供需情況

2020年，全國電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供需(xu)總體(ti)平(ping)衡，部分(fen)地區(qu)有余，局部地區(qu)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)(feng)時(shi)(shi)段(duan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應(ying)偏(pian)(pian)緊(jin)，疫(yi)情(qing)(qing)防控期間電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應(ying)充足(zu)可(ke)靠，為社會疫(yi)情(qing)(qing)防控和國民經濟發展提供堅強電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)保障。分(fen)區(qu)域看，東北、西(xi)(xi)北區(qu)域電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應(ying)能力(li)(li)富(fu)余，華北、華東、南(nan)方區(qu)域電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供需(xu)總體(ti)平(ping)衡，華中區(qu)域用(yong)電(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)(feng)時(shi)(shi)段(duan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應(ying)偏(pian)(pian)緊(jin)。分(fen)省份看，迎峰(feng)(feng)度夏(xia)期間，湖(hu)(hu)南(nan)、四(si)川等(deng)少數電(dian)(dian)網(wang)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)(feng)時(shi)(shi)段(duan)采取了(le)有序用(yong)電(dian)(dian)措施；迎峰(feng)(feng)度冬期間，湖(hu)(hu)南(nan)、江西(xi)(xi)、廣西(xi)(xi)以及(ji)內(nei)蒙古西(xi)(xi)部電(dian)(dian)網(wang)等(deng)少數電(dian)(dian)網(wang)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)(feng)時(shi)(shi)段(duan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應(ying)緊(jin)張，采取了(le)有序用(yong)電(dian)(dian)措施。

二、2021年全國電力供需形勢預測

（一）2021年全(quan)社會用電量增長6%-7%

2021年(nian)(nian)，是我國(guo)實施“十四五”規劃(hua)開(kai)(kai)局之年(nian)(nian)、全面建設社(she)會主義現(xian)代(dai)化國(guo)家新征程開(kai)(kai)啟之年(nian)(nian)。在新的國(guo)內外(wai)環(huan)境形勢(shi)下，我國(guo)面臨的機遇(yu)與(yu)挑戰并存，綜合(he)考慮(lv)國(guo)內外(wai)經濟形勢(shi)、電(dian)能替代(dai)、上年(nian)(nian)低(di)基數(shu)等因素，以及疫(yi)情(qing)和外(wai)部環(huan)境存在的不確定性(xing)，預(yu)計2021年(nian)(nian)全社(she)會用電(dian)量增速前高后低(di)，全年(nian)(nian)增長6%-7%。

（二(er)）非化石(shi)能源(yuan)發(fa)電裝機比(bi)重繼續提(ti)高

預計2021年(nian)(nian)全(quan)國(guo)基建(jian)新(xin)增(zeng)發(fa)電裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)1.8億(yi)(yi)千瓦左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)(you)，其中非(fei)化石(shi)能源(yuan)發(fa)電裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)投(tou)產(chan)1.4億(yi)(yi)千瓦左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)(you)。預計2021年(nian)(nian)底(di)全(quan)國(guo)發(fa)電裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)23.7億(yi)(yi)千瓦，同比(bi)增(zeng)長7.7%左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)(you)。非(fei)化石(shi)能源(yuan)發(fa)電裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)達(da)到11.2億(yi)(yi)千瓦左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)(you)，占總裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)比(bi)重上(shang)升至47.3%，比(bi)2020年(nian)(nian)底(di)提高2.5個(ge)百分點左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)(you)。風電和太陽能發(fa)電裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)比(bi)重比(bi)2020年(nian)(nian)底(di)提高3個(ge)百分點左(zuo)(zuo)右(you)(you)，對電力系統靈(ling)活性調節能力的需求進一步(bu)增(zeng)加(jia)。

（三）全國(guo)電力供需總體(ti)平衡(heng)，局部(bu)地區(qu)電力供應偏緊

預計2021年(nian)全國電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)需(xu)總體平(ping)衡、局(ju)部地區(qu)(qu)高(gao)峰(feng)時段(duan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)應(ying)偏(pian)(pian)緊(jin)(jin)甚至緊(jin)(jin)張。分區(qu)(qu)域看(kan)，東(dong)北(bei)(bei)、西北(bei)(bei)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)應(ying)存在富余；華東(dong)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)需(xu)平(ping)衡；華北(bei)(bei)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)應(ying)偏(pian)(pian)緊(jin)(jin)，其(qi)中，河北(bei)(bei)和山(shan)東(dong)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)應(ying)偏(pian)(pian)緊(jin)(jin)，通(tong)過跨(kua)省區(qu)(qu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)支援，可基本保障(zhang)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)應(ying)，內蒙(meng)古西部電(dian)(dian)網電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)應(ying)偏(pian)(pian)緊(jin)(jin)，在風(feng)電(dian)(dian)出力(li)(li)(li)銳減(jian)時，多個月份將可能(neng)需(xu)要采(cai)取有序用電(dian)(dian)措施；華中電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)需(xu)緊(jin)(jin)張，主要是湖南(nan)(nan)用電(dian)(dian)高(gao)峰(feng)時段(duan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)應(ying)緊(jin)(jin)張，極端(duan)氣候情況下湖北(bei)(bei)、江西可能(neng)出現一(yi)定電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)缺口；南(nan)(nan)方區(qu)(qu)域電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)需(xu)緊(jin)(jin)張，其(qi)中，廣(guang)東(dong)、云南(nan)(nan)、廣(guang)西均(jun)存在較大錯(cuo)峰(feng)限電(dian)(dian)風(feng)險。

三、有關建議

當前(qian)，在(zai)國(guo)家加快構建以(yi)(yi)國(guo)內(nei)(nei)大循(xun)環(huan)為(wei)主體、國(guo)內(nei)(nei)國(guo)際雙(shuang)循(xun)環(huan)相互促(cu)進的新發(fa)展格局背景下(xia)，在(zai)“中(zhong)國(guo)二氧化碳(tan)排放力(li)爭(zheng)2030年前(qian)達到峰值,努力(li)爭(zheng)取2060年前(qian)實(shi)現碳(tan)中(zhong)和”的目(mu)標(biao)要求(qiu)下(xia)，一方面，電力(li)行業要保障(zhang)電力(li)安全可靠(kao)供(gong)應(ying)，以(yi)(yi)滿足國(guo)民經濟發(fa)展目(mu)標(biao)以(yi)(yi)及(ji)人民生活用(yong)電需(xu)求(qiu)；另一方面，電力(li)行業需(xu)加快清(qing)潔低碳(tan)供(gong)應(ying)結構轉型進程，實(shi)現碳(tan)減(jian)排目(mu)標(biao)。結合當前(qian)電力(li)供(gong)需(xu)形勢和行業發(fa)展趨勢，提出如下(xia)建議：

（一）保障電力供(gong)需平衡和安全(quan)穩定運行(xing)

2020年入冬以來，受(shou)宏觀經(jing)濟持續回(hui)暖以及低溫寒潮天氣(qi)等多(duo)重(zhong)因素疊加影響，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力消費需(xu)求快(kuai)速增長，部分省份在用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)高峰(feng)時段電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供應(ying)緊張，出現有(you)序用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)現象。為保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力安全可靠供應(ying)，就(jiu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力燃料供應(ying)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網結構、需(xu)求響應(ying)等方面(mian)提出以下建(jian)議(yi)：

一是保障(zhang)電力(li)燃料供(gong)(gong)應(ying)。切實落實國(guo)家(jia)關(guan)(guan)于(yu)(yu)煤(mei)(mei)炭的(de)保供(gong)(gong)穩(wen)價措施。增(zeng)加國(guo)內煤(mei)(mei)炭供(gong)(gong)應(ying)，對于(yu)(yu)安(an)全條(tiao)件好且(qie)具(ju)備生(sheng)產能(neng)力(li)的(de)煤(mei)(mei)礦，在保供(gong)(gong)的(de)關(guan)(guan)鍵時(shi)期按照(zhao)最大(da)產能(neng)安(an)排生(sheng)產計劃(hua)。繼續加大(da)先(xian)進(jin)產能(neng)的(de)釋放力(li)度(du)，進(jin)一步(bu)(bu)增(zeng)加國(guo)內煤(mei)(mei)炭產能(neng)儲備，以應(ying)對經(jing)濟(ji)持續復蘇以及季節性(xing)氣候變化等對煤(mei)(mei)炭消(xiao)費(fei)需求的(de)增(zeng)加。進(jin)一步(bu)(bu)增(zeng)加進(jin)口煤(mei)(mei)配額指標，允許異地(di)報關(guan)(guan)，加速通關(guan)(guan)放行(xing)，快速有效補充國(guo)內供(gong)(gong)應(ying)，釋放有利于(yu)(yu)市場(chang)穩(wen)定(ding)的(de)信號(hao)。加大(da)電煤(mei)(mei)中(zhong)(zhong)長期合(he)同履(lv)約執行(xing)監管力(li)度(du)，對于(yu)(yu)故意不履(lv)行(xing)或少履(lv)行(xing)電煤(mei)(mei)中(zhong)(zhong)長期合(he)同等行(xing)為要按照(zhao)有關(guan)(guan)規(gui)定(ding)嚴肅查(cha)處。

二是進一步優化(hua)電網(wang)(wang)(wang)運行方式(shi)，強化(hua)電網(wang)(wang)(wang)風險預控。密切跟(gen)蹤經濟走(zou)勢(shi)、電力需求、天氣變化(hua)合理安排電網(wang)(wang)(wang)運行方式(shi)，加(jia)強電網(wang)(wang)(wang)運行方式(shi)和(he)電力電量(liang)平(ping)衡協調。推動建立(li)跨省跨區(qu)備(bei)用(yong)輔助服務市(shi)場(chang)，強化(hua)跨省跨區(qu)交易(yi)組織(zhi)保(bao)障，充分應(ying)用(yong)跨區(qu)跨省輸電通道能力。對各種情形(xing)下電網(wang)(wang)(wang)供電能力進行風險評估，并根(gen)據結果制定(ding)合理的解決措施。

三是加快構建大(da)規模源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷儲(chu)友好互動系統。加強(qiang)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷儲(chu)協(xie)同互動，對電力柔性(xing)(xing)負荷進行策略(lve)引導和集中控制，充(chong)分利用用戶側資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，化解短時電力供需矛盾。通過(guo)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷儲(chu)協(xie)同互動的整體解決方(fang)案，增(zeng)強(qiang)電網(wang)柔性(xing)(xing)調節能(neng)力，并基(ji)于(yu)柔性(xing)(xing)輸電技術加強(qiang)電網(wang)彈性(xing)(xing)，提升對特大(da)自然災害、事故災難等極(ji)端情況的承(cheng)受和恢復(fu)能(neng)力。

（二）推進(jin)能源電力供(gong)應結構低碳轉(zhuan)型

“十四五”是(shi)國(guo)家構建新發展格局(ju)和能源電力(li)結構轉型的關(guan)鍵(jian)期，為保障實現(xian)國(guo)家碳排放目標(biao)，促進電力(li)行業低碳轉型，就規(gui)劃(hua)制定(ding)、電源發展、用能終(zhong)端等方面(mian)提出以下建議：

一是(shi)堅(jian)持系統觀念，統籌(chou)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)電(dian)力(li)行(xing)業各環節有(you)序發(fa)展(zhan)。統籌(chou)考慮各類(lei)電(dian)源中(zhong)長期規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)、網源規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)以及電(dian)力(li)行(xing)業內(nei)部產(chan)業鏈條的(de)緊(jin)密(mi)接續(xu)，將國(guo)家清潔能(neng)源戰略(lve)更(geng)好融(rong)入(ru)電(dian)力(li)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)頂(ding)層設計(ji)，推動電(dian)力(li)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)從供(gong)應側、輸電(dian)網向配(pei)網側、用戶(hu)端(duan)延伸。在(zai)用戶(hu)側和配(pei)電(dian)網緊(jin)密(mi)耦合的(de)趨勢下，以客(ke)戶(hu)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)為導向，通過開(kai)展(zhan)配(pei)電(dian)網差異化(hua)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)來滿足終(zhong)端(duan)用能(neng)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)。

二是推動煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量盡早達(da)峰。統(tong)籌(chou)有序推進煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)規(gui)劃實施，有力(li)發(fa)揮(hui)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)保底的(de)支撐作用(yong)。根據區域(yu)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)機組的(de)特點以及在系(xi)統(tong)調(diao)節(jie)中的(de)作用(yong)和地位，推進機組靈活性改造，加(jia)快煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)向電(dian)(dian)量和電(dian)(dian)力(li)調(diao)節(jie)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)源轉換。開(kai)展煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)機組延壽、相(xiang)關配(pei)套(tao)政策的(de)系(xi)統(tong)研究。

三是保障高比例新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納(na)。因地制宜發(fa)(fa)展新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，綜合(he)(he)各地資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)條(tiao)件、電(dian)(dian)(dian)網條(tiao)件、負荷(he)水平等因素優(you)(you)化可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)項(xiang)目開(kai)發(fa)(fa)時序，堅持集中(zhong)式(shi)和分布式(shi)并舉開(kai)發(fa)(fa)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。持續優(you)(you)化新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展布局(ju)，風電(dian)(dian)(dian)和光伏發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)進(jin)(jin)一步向中(zhong)東部(bu)地區(qu)和南方地區(qu)優(you)(you)化布局(ju)，在東部(bu)地區(qu)建(jian)立多能(neng)(neng)(neng)互(hu)補(bu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)體系，在西部(bu)北部(bu)地區(qu)加大風能(neng)(neng)(neng)、太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)規模(mo)化、集約化開(kai)發(fa)(fa)力度(du)。提(ti)高新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在電(dian)(dian)(dian)網的(de)滲(shen)透(tou)率，對于新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納(na)困難的(de)地區(qu)，可考慮部(bu)分60萬千瓦亞(ya)臨界煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)機組(zu)進(jin)(jin)行靈活(huo)性改(gai)造參(can)與深(shen)度(du)調峰。加快跨省跨區(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力通(tong)道的(de)建(jian)設，有(you)效發(fa)(fa)揮大電(dian)(dian)(dian)網綜合(he)(he)平衡能(neng)(neng)(neng)力，促進(jin)(jin)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)消(xiao)納(na)。拉大峰谷分時電(dian)(dian)(dian)價差，調動各類(lei)負荷(he)側(ce)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)參(can)與系統調節，促進(jin)(jin)需求側(ce)主動響應(ying)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)出力變化。

（三）建立健(jian)全市場機制(zhi)和政(zheng)策(ce)體(ti)系保障電力低碳轉型

“十四五”期間，新能(neng)源消納、煤(mei)電轉型都將(jiang)面(mian)臨更多(duo)挑戰，為保障我國電力加速低碳轉型，就電價形(xing)成機制、中長(chang)期市場(chang)、現貨市場(chang)、碳市場(chang)等(deng)市場(chang)長(chang)效機制方面(mian)提(ti)出(chu)以下建(jian)議：

一(yi)是理(li)順(shun)市場(chang)(chang)環境下電(dian)價(jia)形(xing)(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)機(ji)制。以第二輪輸配電(dian)價(jia)核定(ding)為(wei)契機(ji)，理(li)順(shun)市場(chang)(chang)電(dian)價(jia)形(xing)(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)機(ji)制，將“價(jia)差(cha)”模式(shi)過渡到“順(shun)價(jia)”模式(shi)。總結(jie)市場(chang)(chang)電(dian)價(jia)結(jie)算經驗，研究相(xiang)關措施擴(kuo)大市場(chang)(chang)峰谷價(jia)差(cha)，引(yin)入容量補償機(ji)制，促進(jin)(jin)不同類型機(ji)組進(jin)(jin)入市場(chang)(chang)，使價(jia)格機(ji)制滿足現貨市場(chang)(chang)要(yao)求。

二是加強中(zhong)長期(qi)(qi)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)和(he)現貨(huo)(huo)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)協調。合(he)理確(que)定(ding)中(zhong)長期(qi)(qi)合(he)同(tong)在現貨(huo)(huo)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)交割(ge)方式及中(zhong)長期(qi)(qi)交易(yi)(yi)曲線，促進中(zhong)長期(qi)(qi)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)和(he)現貨(huo)(huo)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)有效銜接。盡快完善外來電、優先發購(gou)電權參與市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)交易(yi)(yi)規則(ze)，明晰不平衡資金定(ding)義、分(fen)類以及疏(shu)導(dao)原則(ze)。進一(yi)步完善現貨(huo)(huo)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)，豐(feng)富交易(yi)(yi)品種，特別是靈(ling)活性資源(yuan)和(he)備用資源(yuan)交易(yi)(yi)品種。建立容量市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)或容量成本補償機制，保障(zhang)發電企業合(he)理利益。

三是(shi)加快和(he)完善碳市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)建設。根據(ju)碳達峰、碳中和(he)要求，完善全(quan)國碳市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)配(pei)額分(fen)配(pei)方案，科學測算全(quan)國碳市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)行業配(pei)額總量和(he)基準值。合理統籌各(ge)地(di)區(qu)配(pei)額分(fen)配(pei)，審慎核(he)定(ding)各(ge)省設定(ding)的“地(di)區(qu)供電(dian)(dian)配(pei)額修正系(xi)數(shu)”，用市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)機制更好發(fa)揮(hui)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)的兜底保供和(he)靈活性調節電(dian)(dian)源作用。完善交(jiao)易(yi)機制和(he)規則，盡快發(fa)布中國核(he)證減排量（CCER）抵消機制，推動發(fa)電(dian)(dian)企業從集團和(he)企業層面積極參(can)與碳交(jiao)易(yi)，實(shi)現低成本減排和(he)技術創新。