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近日，中電聯發布2019-2020年度全國電力供需形勢分析預測報告，預計2020年底全國發電裝機容量21.3億千瓦，增長6%左右；非化石能源發電裝機合計9.3億千瓦左右，占總裝機容量比重上升至43.6%，比2019年底提高1.7個百分點左右。

報告全文如下：

2019年，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)運行平穩，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供需總(zong)體平衡。全(quan)(quan)年全(quan)(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)7.23萬(wan)億千瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，比上年增(zeng)長(chang)4.5%，第三(san)產(chan)(chan)業和城(cheng)鄉居(ju)民生(sheng)活用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)對(dui)全(quan)(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)貢獻率為51%。2019年底(di)(di)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)口(kou)徑發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)(liang)(liang)20.1億千瓦(wa)(wa)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)延續(xu)(xu)綠(lv)色低碳發(fa)展態(tai)勢，非(fei)化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)(liang)(liang)占(zhan)比繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)提高；非(fei)化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)保(bao)持快速增(zeng)長(chang)；跨(kua)區(qu)(qu)、跨(kua)省送電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)實現(xian)兩位數增(zeng)長(chang)。預計2020年，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)消(xiao)費將延續(xu)(xu)平穩增(zeng)長(chang)態(tai)勢，全(quan)(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)4%-5%。預計年底(di)(di)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)(liang)(liang)21.3億千瓦(wa)(wa)，其中非(fei)化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機比重繼(ji)續(xu)(xu)上升。預計全(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供需總(zong)體平衡，局(ju)部地區(qu)(qu)高峰時(shi)段電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供應偏緊。

一、2019年全國電力供需情況

（一）全社會用電量平穩增長，第三產業和城鄉居民生活用電的拉動效果明顯

2019年(nian)，全國全社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)7.23萬億千瓦時(shi)(shi)，比上年(nian)增長4.5%。全國人均用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)5161千瓦時(shi)(shi)，人均生活用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)732千瓦時(shi)(shi)。各季度(du)全社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增速分別為5.5%、4.5%、3.4%和4.7%。電(dian)(dian)(dian)力消費主(zhu)要特(te)點有：

一是第一產(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)平穩增長(chang)。2019年，第一產(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)780億千瓦時(shi)，比(bi)上年增長(chang)4.5%。其中，漁業(ye)(ye)、畜牧(mu)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)分(fen)別(bie)增長(chang)8.2%和5.0%。第一產(chan)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)對(dui)全社會用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)的貢獻率為1.1%，拉(la)動全社會用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)(liang)增長(chang)0.05個百(bai)分(fen)點。

二(er)是第二(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)及其制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)保(bao)持中低(di)(di)速(su)(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。2019年(nian)(nian)，第二(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)4.94萬億千瓦時，比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.1%；各(ge)季度增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)分別為(wei)(wei)3.0%、3.1%、2.7%和3.5%。第二(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)占全社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重為(wei)(wei)68.3%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)降低(di)(di)0.9個(ge)百(bai)分點。第二(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)對全社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的貢獻率為(wei)(wei)47.9%，拉動2.1個(ge)百(bai)分點。制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.9%，其中，四大高載能行(xing)業(ye)[1]用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.0%，其中建材行(xing)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)5.3%，黑色(se)行(xing)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)4.5%，化工行(xing)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)與上年(nian)(nian)持平(ping)，有色(se)行(xing)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)為(wei)(wei)-0.5%；高技術及裝備制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)[2]用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.2%；消費品制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)[3]用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.2%；其他制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)[4]用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.3%。

三是第三產業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)保持較快增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。2019年(nian)，第三產業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)1.19萬億千(qian)瓦時(shi)，比上年(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)9.5%，各季度增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分(fen)別為(wei)10.1%、8.6%、7.7%和(he)11.8%。其中(zhong)，信(xin)息傳(chuan)輸/軟件和(he)信(xin)息技術服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)16.2%，租賃(lin)和(he)商(shang)務(wu)服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)、房地產業(ye)(ye)、批發(fa)和(he)零售業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)均在10%以上。

四是城鄉居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用電量中(zhong)速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)。2019年，城鄉居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用電量1.02萬(wan)億千(qian)瓦時(shi)，比上年增(zeng)長(chang)5.7%；各季度增(zeng)速(su)分(fen)別為(wei)11.0%、7.7%、1.2%和3.7%。分(fen)城鄉看，城鎮(zhen)居(ju)民(min)、鄉村居(ju)民(min)用電量分(fen)別比上年增(zeng)長(chang)5.5%和5.9%。

五(wu)是(shi)第三(san)產業(ye)(ye)和城鄉居(ju)民生活(huo)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)對(dui)全(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增長的(de)貢獻(xian)率合計(ji)超過50%。2019年，第三(san)產業(ye)(ye)和城鄉居(ju)民生活(huo)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)分(fen)別拉動(dong)全(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增長1.5和0.8個百分(fen)點(dian)。第三(san)產業(ye)(ye)和城鄉居(ju)民生活(huo)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)對(dui)全(quan)社(she)(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增長的(de)貢獻(xian)率分(fen)別為33.1%和17.9%，兩者合計(ji)達到51.0%，其(qi)中第三(san)產業(ye)(ye)貢獻(xian)率比上年提高10.1個百分(fen)點(dian)。

六是(shi)西(xi)部地(di)區用電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速領先。2019年，東(dong)、中、西(xi)部和東(dong)北地(di)區全(quan)社會用電(dian)量(liang)分(fen)別比(bi)上(shang)年增(zeng)長3.6%、4.5%、6.2%、3.7%，占全(quan)國比(bi)重分(fen)別為47.2%、18.7%、28.3%、5.8%，全(quan)國共有28個省份(fen)用電(dian)量(liang)實(shi)現(xian)正增(zeng)長。

（二）電力延續綠色低碳發展趨勢，非化石能源發電裝機和發電量均保持較快增長

截(jie)至(zhi)2019年(nian)(nian)底(di)，全(quan)(quan)國全(quan)(quan)口徑(jing)發電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)20.1億千瓦，比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)底(di)增(zeng)長(chang)5.8%，其中全(quan)(quan)國全(quan)(quan)口徑(jing)非化石能(neng)源發電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)8.4億千瓦，比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)8.7%，占總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)的比(bi)重為(wei)41.9%，比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)底(di)提高1.1個(ge)百分點。2019年(nian)(nian)，發電(dian)設(she)備利用小時(shi)3825小時(shi)，比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)降(jiang)低54小時(shi)。全(quan)(quan)國主(zhu)要電(dian)力企(qi)業合計完成投資(zi)7995億元(yuan)，比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)下降(jiang)2.0%。

電力供應主要特點有：

一是全(quan)(quan)國發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)突(tu)破20億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。截至2019年(nian)(nian)底，全(quan)(quan)國全(quan)(quan)口(kou)徑(jing)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)20.1億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、同比(bi)增(zeng)長5.8%。分(fen)類(lei)型看，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)3.6億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)4874萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、并(bing)(bing)網(wang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)2.1億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、并(bing)(bing)網(wang)太(tai)陽(yang)能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)2.0億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)11.9億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)中(zhong)，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)10.4億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)9022萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。2019年(nian)(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國新增(zeng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)10173萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)少(shao)投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)2612萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)；其中(zhong)新增(zeng)非化石(shi)能源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)6389萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，占(zhan)新增(zeng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)總容(rong)量(liang)的62.8%。全(quan)(quan)國新增(zeng)并(bing)(bing)網(wang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)太(tai)陽(yang)能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)分(fen)別為(wei)2574萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)和(he)(he)2681萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，分(fen)別比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)多投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)447萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)和(he)(he)少(shao)投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)1844萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。新增(zeng)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)分(fen)別為(wei)2989萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)和(he)(he)629萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，分(fen)別比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)少(shao)投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)67萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)和(he)(he)255萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。

二是(shi)核電(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)和(he)太(tai)(tai)陽能發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量快(kuai)速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)口徑(jing)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量為(wei)7.33萬(wan)(wan)億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.7%。全(quan)(quan)國(guo)非化石能源發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量2.39萬(wan)(wan)億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)10.4%，占全(quan)(quan)國(guo)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量的(de)比(bi)重為(wei)32.6%，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)提高(gao)1.7個百分(fen)點，其中，水電(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)、并網風電(dian)(dian)和(he)并網太(tai)(tai)陽能分(fen)別比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)5.7%、18.2%、10.9%和(he)26.5%。全(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)口徑(jing)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量5.05萬(wan)(wan)億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.4%；其中，煤電(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量4.56萬(wan)(wan)億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)1.7%。

三是水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和太陽能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設備利(li)用小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)提高。2019年(nian)(nian)(nian)，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設備利(li)用小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時3726小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)提高119小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時；并網(wang)太陽能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)1285小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)提高55小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時；并網(wang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)2082小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)降低(di)(di)21小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時；核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)7394小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)降低(di)(di)149小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時；火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)4293小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)降低(di)(di)85小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時，其中煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)4416小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)降低(di)(di)79小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時，氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)2646小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時，比(bi)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)降低(di)(di)121小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時。

四是(shi)農網升級改造及(ji)配(pei)網建設(she)是(shi)電(dian)(dian)網投(tou)資(zi)重點，跨(kua)區跨(kua)省送(song)電(dian)(dian)量較快增(zeng)長(chang)。2019年(nian)，全(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)網工程建設(she)完(wan)成投(tou)資(zi)4856億(yi)元，其中110千(qian)伏(fu)及(ji)以下電(dian)(dian)網投(tou)資(zi)占電(dian)(dian)網投(tou)資(zi)的比(bi)(bi)重為(wei)63.3%，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)提高5.9個百分點。全(quan)國(guo)基建新(xin)增(zeng)220千(qian)伏(fu)及(ji)以上(shang)(shang)變電(dian)(dian)設(she)備容量23042萬(wan)千(qian)伏(fu)安(an)，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)多(duo)投(tou)產(chan)828萬(wan)千(qian)伏(fu)安(an)；新(xin)增(zeng)220千(qian)伏(fu)及(ji)以上(shang)(shang)輸電(dian)(dian)線路(lu)長(chang)度34022千(qian)米(mi)，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)少(shao)投(tou)產(chan)7070千(qian)米(mi)；新(xin)增(zeng)直流(liu)換流(liu)容量2200萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)減少(shao)1000萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)。2019年(nian)，全(quan)國(guo)跨(kua)區、跨(kua)省送(song)電(dian)(dian)量分別(bie)完(wan)成5405億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)和14440億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)，分別(bie)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)年(nian)增(zeng)長(chang)12.2%和11.4%。

五是電力燃料供應由緊平衡轉向總體(ti)平衡，電煤(mei)(mei)全(quan)年(nian)綜(zong)合價(jia)超過綠色區(qu)間(jian)上限。煤(mei)(mei)礦(kuang)優質產能逐步釋放，進口(kou)煤(mei)(mei)支撐(cheng)作用(yong)較好發揮，2019年(nian)電煤(mei)(mei)供應總體(ti)有保障。電煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)格前高(gao)后低，震蕩幅度收窄，全(quan)年(nian)綜(zong)合價(jia)仍超過《關于印發平抑煤(mei)(mei)炭市場價(jia)格異常波動(dong)的(de)備忘錄的(de)通(tong)知》（發改(gai)運行(xing)〔2016〕2808號）規定的(de)綠色區(qu)間(jian)上限（500-570元(yuan)/噸）。

（三）全國電力供需總體平衡，局部地區采取了有序用電措施

2019年，全國電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)總體平衡(heng)。東北(bei)(bei)、西(xi)北(bei)(bei)區(qu)域電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應(ying)能力(li)富余(yu)；華(hua)北(bei)(bei)、華(hua)東、華(hua)中、南方區(qu)域電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)總體平衡(heng)，其中，蒙(meng)西(xi)、冀(ji)北(bei)(bei)、遼(liao)寧、浙江、江西(xi)、湖(hu)北(bei)(bei)、海南等省級電(dian)(dian)網(wang)在部分時段采取(qu)了有序用電(dian)(dian)措施，蒙(meng)西(xi)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)從前幾年的電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應(ying)能力(li)富余(yu)轉(zhuan)為(wei)2019年以來的電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應(ying)偏緊。

二、2020年全國電力供需形勢預測

（一）電力消費延續平穩增長態勢

2020年(nian)在(zai)穩中求進工(gong)作總基(ji)調和國家宏觀(guan)政策(ce)逆周(zhou)期調節的大(da)背景下，2020年(nian)全(quan)社會用電量將延續平(ping)穩增(zeng)長，在(zai)沒(mei)有(you)大(da)范圍極端(duan)氣(qi)溫影響的情(qing)況下，預計2020年(nian)全(quan)國全(quan)社會用電量比2019年(nian)增(zeng)長4%-5%。

（二）非化石能源發電裝機比重將繼續提高

預計2020年(nian)全(quan)國基建(jian)新增(zeng)發電裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)1.2億千瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)，其(qi)中非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源發電裝(zhuang)機(ji)投產8700萬千瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)。預計2020年(nian)底(di)全(quan)國發電裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)21.3億千瓦(wa)，增(zeng)長6%左(zuo)右(you)；非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源發電裝(zhuang)機(ji)合(he)計9.3億千瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)，占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)比重(zhong)上(shang)升至43.6%，比2019年(nian)底(di)提高1.7個百分點左(zuo)右(you)。

（三）全國電力供需保持總體平衡

預(yu)計全國電力(li)供(gong)需總體平衡。分區(qu)域(yu)看，預(yu)計華北(bei)、華中區(qu)域(yu)部分時段電力(li)供(gong)需偏緊；華東、南(nan)方區(qu)域(yu)電力(li)供(gong)需總體平衡；東北(bei)、西北(bei)區(qu)域(yu)電力(li)供(gong)應(ying)能力(li)富余。

三、有關建議

2020年(nian)是(shi)“十三五”規(gui)劃的收官之年(nian)，也是(shi)實(shi)現“兩(liang)個翻番”目標、全面建成小康社(she)會(hui)的關(guan)鍵之年(nian)。電(dian)力行(xing)業要認真(zhen)貫徹落實(shi)中央經濟(ji)工(gong)作(zuo)會(hui)議及(ji)(ji)全國(guo)發(fa)展(zhan)改革工(gong)作(zuo)會(hui)議和全國(guo)能源工(gong)作(zuo)會(hui)議精(jing)神，為推動經濟(ji)社(she)會(hui)持續(xu)健康發(fa)展(zhan)、打好三大攻堅戰、精(jing)準脫貧提供電(dian)力保障，切實(shi)助力實(shi)體(ti)經濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)，結合當前經濟(ji)形勢(shi)及(ji)(ji)電(dian)力供需分析(xi)與預測研(yan)究(jiu)，提出有(you)關(guan)建議如(ru)下：

（一）多措并舉，提升電力高質量可持續保供能力

一是更多以市場(chang)方式降(jiang)低社(she)會總(zong)體用(yong)能(neng)成本(ben)。進一步加強全國統一電(dian)力市場(chang)的頂層設計和(he)統籌協調，科學(xue)規劃(hua)設置不(bu)同(tong)(tong)范疇的交易品種，發(fa)揮市場(chang)對資源配置的決(jue)定(ding)性(xing)作用(yong)；結合(he)各地電(dian)網(wang)發(fa)展階段、電(dian)網(wang)運行特性(xing)、電(dian)價(jia)(jia)承受能(neng)力等實際(ji)情況，差異化核定(ding)第二監管(guan)周期(qi)輸(shu)配電(dian)價(jia)(jia)水平；合(he)理確定(ding)關鍵核價(jia)(jia)參數(shu)，科學(xue)修訂輸(shu)配電(dian)價(jia)(jia)定(ding)價(jia)(jia)辦(ban)法，在降(jiang)低社(she)會用(yong)能(neng)成本(ben)的同(tong)(tong)時，保障電(dian)網(wang)企業(ye)可持續安全保供和(he)履(lv)行社(she)會責任的能(neng)力。

二(er)是推動煤(mei)電(dian)板(ban)塊穩步(bu)轉(zhuan)型。利用國(guo)內國(guo)際兩(liang)個(ge)市(shi)場穩定電(dian)煤(mei)供(gong)(gong)應，平抑電(dian)煤(mei)價格；建立完善容量市(shi)場及(ji)輔助服(fu)務補償機(ji)制，逐步(bu)由單(dan)一(yi)電(dian)價向兩(liang)部制電(dian)價過(guo)渡，運(yun)用市(shi)場化(hua)手段推動煤(mei)電(dian)企(qi)業(ye)轉(zhuan)型發(fa)展；同時，給予煤(mei)電(dian)企(qi)業(ye)一(yi)定的專(zhuan)項資金(jin)和專(zhuan)項債轉(zhuan)股政策支持(chi)，保障(zhang)火電(dian)企(qi)業(ye)更好為全社會服(fu)務，發(fa)揮系統調節(jie)兜底保供(gong)(gong)的基(ji)礎(chu)作用和集中供(gong)(gong)暖供(gong)(gong)熱的保民生作用。

三(san)是合(he)理引導新能源(yuan)產(chan)業健康發(fa)展。保持(chi)產(chan)業政策(ce)連續性，控制補貼退坡的(de)節奏和速度，確(que)保風電、光(guang)伏(fu)等產(chan)業鏈平穩運行發(fa)展。發(fa)揮金融市場作用，開發(fa)針對清潔能源(yuan)的(de)融資品(pin)種，將(jiang)應收補貼款納入流貸支持(chi)范圍，解(jie)決全行業補貼資金缺口問題。

（二）協調發展，提高電力資源配置效率

一是統籌源(yuan)網(wang)荷儲(chu)發展。推進(jin)建設發展分布(bu)式(shi)與集中(zhong)式(shi)的(de)清潔能(neng)源(yuan)供能(neng)方式(shi)，充分發揮(hui)電力在能(neng)源(yuan)轉型中(zhong)的(de)中(zhong)心作(zuo)用和電網(wang)的(de)樞紐作(zuo)用，聚焦用戶需求，通過智(zhi)能(neng)化電力設備及調節(jie)手段實現(xian)源(yuan)、網(wang)、荷、儲(chu)的(de)整體優化，進(jin)一步提高能(neng)源(yuan)資源(yuan)的(de)配置(zhi)能(neng)力。

二是提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統調(diao)(diao)節能力(li)，破解風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、光伏等新能源大(da)規模并網及電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)輸(shu)送(song)問題，保障新能源消納(na)。通過建立完善(shan)配套政策和市場機制，提高企業(ye)積極性(xing)，推動(dong)氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)、抽(chou)蓄(xu)等系統靈活(huo)性(xing)調(diao)(diao)節電(dian)(dian)(dian)源建設，同時，要加(jia)快(kuai)完成(cheng)“十(shi)三(san)五(wu)”煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)靈活(huo)性(xing)改造(zao)目標，推動(dong)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)企業(ye)轉型升(sheng)級。

（三）政策引導，促進電力高效利用

一是(shi)進一步推進電(dian)能替(ti)代(dai)。在需求側領(ling)域合理(li)實施電(dian)能替(ti)代(dai)，不斷創新替(ti)代(dai)方(fang)式和內(nei)容，進一步擴大(da)(da)電(dian)能替(ti)代(dai)范圍(wei)和實施規模，擴大(da)(da)電(dian)力消費市場，促進大(da)(da)氣污染(ran)治理(li)。

二是加強電(dian)力(li)(li)需(xu)求(qiu)側管理，探索實施需(xu)求(qiu)響應(ying)和精益化(hua)的有序用電(dian)；進(jin)一步完善峰谷分時電(dian)價機制，以及居民階梯電(dian)價等相關政(zheng)策(ce)，不(bu)斷(duan)提高電(dian)力(li)(li)占(zhan)終端(duan)能(neng)源消費比重，全力(li)(li)推進(jin)電(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)進(jin)程(cheng)。

三是加大轉供(gong)電(dian)環(huan)節的清理整頓，在降低企業用電(dian)成本(ben)以提升企業經(jing)營效(xiao)(xiao)益(yi)、提振實體經(jing)濟的政策環(huan)境下，引導和幫助電(dian)力用戶用好政策紅利，提升用電(dian)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)。