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4月30日，中電(dian)(dian)(dian)聯發(fa)布(bu)《2019年一(yi)季度全(quan)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需(xu)形勢(shi)分(fen)析預測報告》。報告顯示(shi)，2019年第一(yi)季度全(quan)國全(quan)社會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量1.68萬(wan)億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時、同比(bi)增長(chang)5.5%，非化(hua)石(shi)(shi)能源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量快(kuai)速增長(chang)。預計年底全(quan)國發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量達到20億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、同比(bi)增長(chang)6%左右(you)，非化(hua)石(shi)(shi)能源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)合計達到8.4億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左右(you)、占總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量比(bi)重上升至42%。

一、2019年一季度全國電力供需狀況

（一）全社會用電量增速回落，當季增速符合年初預期

一季度，全國全社會用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)1.68萬億千瓦時、同比增(zeng)長(chang)5.5%，環比上年四季度回落1.8個百分點，當(dang)季增(zeng)速(su)符(fu)合年初預期。分月(yue)份(fen)看，1-2月(yue)份(fen)全社會用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)同比增(zeng)長(chang)4.5%；3月(yue)份(fen)增(zeng)速(su)上升至(zhi)7.5%。3月(yue)份(fen)工業(ye)生產的回升，是當(dang)月(yue)全社會用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)回升的重要原因，當(dang)月(yue)工業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)對(dui)全社會用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)的貢獻(xian)率(lv)從1-2月(yue)的14.5%上升至(zhi)3月(yue)份(fen)的55.0%。

主要特點有:

一(yi)是第二產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速(su)(su)回落。一(yi)季度(du)，第二產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)1.09萬億(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.0%，環比(bi)(bi)上年四季度(du)回落3.9個百分點；第二產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)占全社會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重為65.2%，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)降低(di)1.6個百分點。制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)8027億(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.4%，其中，在上年同(tong)期低(di)基(ji)數以及工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生產回升的(de)拉(la)動下，3月份制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)9.0%。從制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)幾大類(lei)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)來看，一(yi)季度(du)高(gao)(gao)技術及裝備制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)[1]用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.3%，高(gao)(gao)于(yu)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)速(su)(su)。消費品制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)[3]用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.3%。四大高(gao)(gao)載(zai)能(neng)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)[2]用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.8%，其中，非金(jin)屬礦物制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)7.0%；化(hua)學原料和化(hua)學制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.9%；黑(hei)色(se)金(jin)屬冶煉(lian)和壓(ya)延加(jia)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.8%；有(you)色(se)金(jin)屬冶煉(lian)和壓(ya)延加(jia)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)0.4%。

二是第(di)三(san)產業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)繼續快(kuai)速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。一(yi)季度，第(di)三(san)產業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)2859億千瓦時(shi)、同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)10.1%，占全社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)重為16.3%、同(tong)比(bi)提(ti)高0.7個百分點。其中，信息(xi)傳輸(shu)、軟件和信息(xi)技術(shu)服務業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)繼續延續近(jin)年來快(kuai)速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)勢頭(tou)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)15.6%；租(zu)賃和商務服務業(ye)(ye)、房地產業(ye)(ye)、批發和零售業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)分別增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)14.4%、12.7%、11.8%；交通運(yun)輸(shu)、倉儲(chu)和郵政(zheng)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)9.2%。

三是城(cheng)(cheng)鄉(xiang)居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量快速增長(chang)(chang)。一季度，城(cheng)(cheng)鄉(xiang)居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量2830億(yi)千瓦時、同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)11.0%，所占全社會(hui)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量比(bi)(bi)重(zhong)為16.0%、同比(bi)(bi)提高0.8個百(bai)分點。其中，城(cheng)(cheng)鎮(zhen)居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量1613億(yi)千瓦時，同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)10.2%；鄉(xiang)村居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量1218億(yi)千瓦時，同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)(chang)12.2%。

四是第(di)一(yi)產業(ye)用(yong)電量(liang)較快增(zeng)長。一(yi)季度，第(di)一(yi)產業(ye)用(yong)電量(liang)160億(yi)千瓦時、同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長6.8%，占(zhan)全(quan)社會用(yong)電量(liang)比(bi)(bi)重為0.9%、與上年同期持(chi)平。其中，畜牧產品(pin)、漁業(ye)產品(pin)規模化(hua)生產逐步增(zeng)多，帶動畜牧業(ye)、漁業(ye)用(yong)電量(liang)分別增(zeng)長8.6%和12.4%。

五是第三產業和城(cheng)鄉居民生活用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)是全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)主要(yao)(yao)拉動(dong)力。一季度，第二產業用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)對全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)貢(gong)(gong)獻率為36.4%，同比(bi)降低10.4個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)，是全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速回落的(de)重要(yao)(yao)原因。第三產業、城(cheng)鄉居民生活用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)對全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)貢(gong)(gong)獻率分別為30.2%和32.2%，同比(bi)分別提高5.0和5.7個(ge)百(bai)分點(dian)；兩者貢(gong)(gong)獻率合計達到62.4%，是支撐(cheng)全(quan)(quan)社(she)(she)會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)最主要(yao)(yao)動(dong)力。

六是中(zhong)西(xi)(xi)部(bu)地(di)區用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增速(su)領先，絕大部(bu)分省份(fen)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)正增長(chang)。一季度，東(dong)、中(zhong)、西(xi)(xi)部(bu)和(he)(he)東(dong)北地(di)區全(quan)(quan)(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)比分別(bie)增長(chang)3.7%、8.3%、7.3%和(he)(he)2.4%；中(zhong)部(bu)、西(xi)(xi)部(bu)地(di)區用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的比重均(jun)同(tong)比提(ti)高0.5個(ge)(ge)百分點(dian)(dian)；東(dong)部(bu)和(he)(he)東(dong)北地(di)區用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)占(zhan)比同(tong)比分別(bie)降低0.8和(he)(he)0.2個(ge)(ge)百分點(dian)(dian)。全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)31個(ge)(ge)省份(fen)中(zhong)除青海(hai)和(he)(he)黑龍江(jiang)外(wai)，其(qi)他(ta)29個(ge)(ge)省份(fen)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)均(jun)實現正增長(chang)；16個(ge)(ge)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增速(su)高于全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)平(ping)均(jun)水平(ping)的省份(fen)中(zhong)，除海(hai)南、河(he)北和(he)(he)浙(zhe)江(jiang)3個(ge)(ge)省份(fen)外(wai)，其(qi)余(yu)均(jun)屬于中(zhong)、西(xi)(xi)部(bu)省份(fen)。

（二）電力延續綠色低碳發展趨勢，電力投資和投產規模同比下降

一季度，全國主要(yao)(yao)電(dian)力企(qi)業合(he)計完成投資908億(yi)元(yuan)、同比下(xia)降(jiang)16.0%。其中，電(dian)源(yuan)投資下(xia)降(jiang)4.3%，電(dian)網投資下(xia)降(jiang)23.5%。截(jie)至3月底，全國6000千(qian)瓦及(ji)以(yi)上發(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)18.1億(yi)千(qian)瓦、同比增長5.9%；全國全口徑發(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機容量(liang)19.2億(yi)千(qian)瓦、同比增長6.4%。電(dian)力供應主要(yao)(yao)特點有：

一是新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)以及煤電(dian)(dian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)規模同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)減(jian)少。全(quan)國新(xin)(xin)(xin)增發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)1788萬千瓦(wa)(wa)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)少投產716萬千瓦(wa)(wa)。其中，煤電(dian)(dian)投資同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降31.3%，新(xin)(xin)(xin)增煤電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)397萬千瓦(wa)(wa)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)少投產23萬千瓦(wa)(wa)；新(xin)(xin)(xin)增非化石能源發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)1192萬千瓦(wa)(wa)，占新(xin)(xin)(xin)增發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)總(zong)容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)的66.7%。3月(yue)底(di)，全(quan)國并網(wang)風電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)容(rong)(rong)(rong)量(liang)1.9億千瓦(wa)(wa)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長12.7%；全(quan)口徑并網(wang)太陽能發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)1.8億千瓦(wa)(wa)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長29.3%。

二是(shi)非化石能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)快速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。一季度，全(quan)國規模(mo)以(yi)上電(dian)(dian)廠發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)為1.67萬(wan)億千(qian)(qian)瓦時，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)4.2%。其中，火電(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)1.27萬(wan)億千(qian)(qian)瓦時、同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)2.0%；水電(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)2159億千(qian)(qian)瓦時、同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)12.0%；核電(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)770億千(qian)(qian)瓦時、同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)26.1%。全(quan)國全(quan)口徑并網風電(dian)(dian)、并網太陽(yang)能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)分別為1041、439億千(qian)(qian)瓦時，同(tong)比(bi)分別增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)6.1%和26.6%。

三是(shi)除(chu)水電(dian)(dian)外的其他類型發電(dian)(dian)設備利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)均(jun)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)。一(yi)季度，全國發電(dian)(dian)設備平均(jun)利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)919小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)4小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)。其中，由于來水情況相對較好，水電(dian)(dian)691小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)提高(gao)74小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)；火電(dian)(dian)1083小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)6小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)，其中，煤電(dian)(dian)1122小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)3小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)，氣電(dian)(dian)603小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)45小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)；核電(dian)(dian)1655小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)35小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)；并(bing)網風電(dian)(dian)556小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)37小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)；并(bing)網太陽(yang)能發電(dian)(dian)283小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)6小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)。

四是110千伏及以下(xia)電(dian)網(wang)投資比重(zhong)明(ming)顯提高(gao)。一季度，110千伏及以下(xia)電(dian)網(wang)投資占電(dian)網(wang)總投資的(de)比重(zhong)為66.5%，同比提高(gao)14.7個百(bai)分(fen)點。全國基(ji)建新(xin)增220千伏及以上變電(dian)設備容(rong)量6172萬千伏安(an)、同比少投產169萬千伏安(an)；新(xin)增220千伏及以上輸(shu)電(dian)線路長(chang)度5744千米、同比少投產2706千米。

五是跨(kua)區(qu)跨(kua)省(sheng)送(song)電(dian)量(liang)較快增長，清潔能(neng)源得到大范圍優化配置。一季度，全國跨(kua)區(qu)、跨(kua)省(sheng)送(song)電(dian)量(liang)分別(bie)完(wan)成1054和2984億千瓦時，同比分別(bie)增長8.4%和10.2%。

六是電(dian)(dian)(dian)力燃料供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)總(zong)體平衡，地(di)區性(xing)(xing)時段(duan)性(xing)(xing)偏(pian)緊。一季度，煤(mei)炭生產量(liang)微增(zeng)、進口量(liang)下降，煤(mei)炭供(gong)(gong)(gong)應量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)慢(man)于消(xiao)費量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)出現(xian)地(di)區性(xing)(xing)階(jie)段(duan)性(xing)(xing)偏(pian)緊。電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)價格(ge)(ge)總(zong)體呈現(xian)高位(wei)上漲特征(zheng)，2月以(yi)來中國電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)采購(gou)價格(ge)(ge)指數CECI各期(qi)綜(zong)合價均(jun)超過《關于印發平抑煤(mei)炭市場(chang)價格(ge)(ge)異常波動(dong)的(de)備忘(wang)錄的(de)通知》（發改運行〔2016〕2808號(hao)）規定的(de)綠色區間(jian)上限(xian)，國內煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)企業采購(gou)成本仍居高位(wei)。

圖：中(zhong)國沿(yan)(yan)海電煤采(cai)購價格(ge)指數（CECI沿(yan)(yan)海指數）周價格(ge)

（三）全國電力供需總體平衡，局部地區在1月出現錯避峰

一(yi)季度，全國電(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需形勢(shi)總體(ti)平衡。華中(zhong)區域部分省份高(gao)峰(feng)時段電(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需偏緊，主要是江西、湖北在1月(yue)份受寒潮(chao)天氣(qi)等因素影(ying)響出(chu)現缺口(kou)、采取(qu)了錯避(bi)峰(feng)措施；華北、華東、南方區域電(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需總體(ti)平衡；東北、西北區域電(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)應能力(li)(li)富余。

二、全國電力供需形勢預測

（一）全社會用電量平穩增長，全年增速低于2018年

預計(ji)上(shang)半年全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用電量同(tong)比增長5.5%左(zuo)右。在平水(shui)年、沒有大范(fan)圍極(ji)端氣溫影響的(de)情況下(xia)，預計(ji)全(quan)年全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用電量增長5.5%左(zuo)右；若夏季(ji)出現大范(fan)圍極(ji)端高(gao)溫天氣，將(jiang)可(ke)能(neng)上(shang)拉全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用電量增速1個百分點左(zuo)右。

（二）年底總裝機容量達到20億千瓦，非化石能源裝機比重進一步提高

預計(ji)全(quan)年全(quan)國(guo)基建新增發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機容量1.1億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)左右(you)，其中非(fei)化石(shi)能源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機投產(chan)7000萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)左右(you)。預計(ji)年底(di)全(quan)國(guo)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機容量達(da)到20億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、同比增長6%左右(you)；其中，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)3.6億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、并(bing)(bing)網風電(dian)(dian)(dian)2.1億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、并(bing)(bing)網太陽能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)2.0億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)4900萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、生(sheng)物(wu)質發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)2200萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)左右(you)。非(fei)化石(shi)能源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機合計(ji)達(da)到8.4億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)左右(you)、占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機容量比重上(shang)升至42%，比2018年底(di)提高1.2個百分點左右(you)。

（三）全國電力供需總體平衡，迎峰度夏期間部分地區電力供需偏緊

預(yu)計(ji)全國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需總體平衡(heng)，部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)地區電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需偏緊(jin)、供(gong)(gong)(gong)需形勢較前兩年(nian)緊(jin)張，在(zai)迎峰(feng)度夏高峰(feng)時段(duan)存在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)缺口、需要(yao)采(cai)取錯(cuo)避峰(feng)措施(shi)。分(fen)(fen)區域(yu)看，華北、華中、華東(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需偏緊(jin)，部(bu)(bu)分(fen)(fen)省份高峰(feng)時段(duan)需要(yao)采(cai)取錯(cuo)避峰(feng)措施(shi)；南方(fang)區域(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)需總體平衡(heng)；東(dong)北、西北區域(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應富余。預(yu)計(ji)全年(nian)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設備利用小時4400小時左右。

三、有關建議

今(jin)年是(shi)新中國(guo)成立(li)70周年，是(shi)全面建成小(xiao)康社會(hui)、實(shi)(shi)現第一(yi)個百(bai)年奮斗(dou)目標的關(guan)鍵之年。電(dian)力(li)行業堅(jian)持以(yi)習(xi)近平(ping)新時代中國(guo)特色社會(hui)主(zhu)義思想為指(zhi)導(dao)，全面貫(guan)徹落實(shi)(shi)全國(guo)兩(liang)會(hui)精神，深(shen)入推進(jin)“四個革(ge)命、一(yi)個合(he)作(zuo)”能源(yuan)安全新戰略，著(zhu)力(li)深(shen)化供給側(ce)結(jie)構性改革(ge)，堅(jian)定不移推動電(dian)力(li)高(gao)質(zhi)量發(fa)展。當(dang)前(qian)，國(guo)內經濟面臨下(xia)(xia)行壓力(li)，電(dian)力(li)市場改革(ge)縱(zong)深(shen)推進(jin)，行業發(fa)展和企業經營(ying)形勢(shi)嚴峻，結(jie)合(he)電(dian)力(li)供需分析與預測，報告提出有關(guan)建議如下(xia)(xia)：

（一）多措并舉，著力保障電力安全穩定供應

建議做好迎峰度夏及(ji)重大活動保電預案(an)、系統安全(quan)運(yun)維、項目(mu)投產及(ji)需(xu)(xu)求側(ce)管理等工作，避免因電力供需(xu)(xu)緊(jin)張導致電力短缺和安全(quan)運(yun)行風險。

一是加強電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統安全防護體系(xi)建(jian)設(she)和演練，提前(qian)加強電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統重要(yao)設(she)備、重要(yao)場所、重要(yao)通道、重要(yao)時段(duan)運維管理，做好安全事故預案，確(que)保電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統安全。

二(er)是結(jie)合供(gong)需形勢變化(hua)，將具備投(tou)產(chan)條件的應急儲備電(dian)(dian)(dian)源及時納入投(tou)產(chan)計劃，提高供(gong)應保障能(neng)力；充分發(fa)揮大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網作用，實現(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力大(da)范圍資(zi)源優化(hua)配(pei)置(zhi)。

三是更加重視(shi)需(xu)求側管理(li)(li)，擴大峰(feng)(feng)谷(gu)電(dian)價執行范圍(wei)，確定科(ke)學、合理(li)(li)的峰(feng)(feng)谷(gu)分時電(dian)價比，按(an)最大供需(xu)缺口制定落實(shi)有序用(yong)(yong)電(dian)措施(shi)，引導用(yong)(yong)戶錯(cuo)峰(feng)(feng)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)，實(shi)現削峰(feng)(feng)填谷(gu)、移(yi)峰(feng)(feng)平谷(gu)。

（二）穩妥有序，著力平衡電網企業紅利釋放與可持續發展

建議(yi)重(zhong)點抓好輸配電(dian)(dian)成本歸集、增量配電(dian)(dian)網(wang)改革推(tui)進(jin)步伐、綜合能源服務及電(dian)(dian)能替代等工作，在釋放改革紅利(li)的同時，多措(cuo)并舉(ju)緩解電(dian)(dian)網(wang)企業利(li)潤大(da)幅(fu)下降、虧(kui)損面持續(xu)擴大(da)的壓力。

一是在輸配(pei)(pei)電價監審中(zhong)，考慮不同地區經濟(ji)發(fa)展水平、設備運行環(huan)境，電網發(fa)展階段等(deng)因素(su)，進行差異化輸配(pei)(pei)電成本歸集。

二是穩妥(tuo)有序推進增(zeng)量配電業務改革(ge)，適當(dang)把控改革(ge)試點推進的節奏(zou)，在(zai)前三批試點項目推進緩(huan)慢的情(qing)況下，審慎將改革(ge)試點向縣域延伸；同時加強頂(ding)層(ceng)設(she)計和監管能力，確保項目在(zai)申報等各階段(duan)有規可(ke)依、有章可(ke)循。

三是持續清理(li)規范轉(zhuan)供電環節不合理(li)加價，確保(bao)降價紅利傳導至一(yi)般(ban)工商(shang)業(ye)用(yong)電；建(jian)議通過創新用(yong)戶(hu)增值服(fu)務模式、擴大(da)電能替代等多種(zhong)方式，擴大(da)利潤渠道(dao)和(he)來源；同時，采(cai)取綜合措施，保(bao)障完成2019年國(guo)家(jia)一(yi)般(ban)工商(shang)業(ye)電價再降10%的任務。

（三）強化執行，著力解決發電企業經營困境

建議做好電(dian)煤含稅基準價調整、燃(ran)料保供、穩定電(dian)煤價格、電(dian)煤中長協合同監督等工(gong)作，緩解發電(dian)企(qi)業經營困(kun)境。

一是加大煤電(dian)企業政策支持力度，盡(jin)快推進電(dian)煤中長(chang)協合同含(han)稅(shui)(shui)基(ji)準價(jia)調整。建(jian)議明確中長(chang)協合同不含(han)稅(shui)(shui)的(de)基(ji)準價(jia)格(ge)，并根據最新稅(shui)(shui)率調整計(ji)算含(han)稅(shui)(shui)基(ji)準價(jia)，同時協調相關煤炭(tan)生產企業相應調整電(dian)煤價(jia)格(ge)，推動降稅(shui)(shui)紅利有效傳導至(zhi)終端用(yong)戶。

二是加強電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)監測(ce)，保(bao)障電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)穩定(ding)供應。推(tui)動優質煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)產(chan)能釋放(fang)并盡快(kuai)形成有效(xiao)產(chan)能；適時調整進(jin)口煤(mei)(mei)指標，統籌利(li)用(yong)兩(liang)個市場(chang)、兩(liang)種資源；針對(dui)當(dang)前電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)中長(chang)協(xie)合同捆綁月度長(chang)協(xie)及變(bian)相增加外購煤(mei)(mei)比例，造(zao)成實際中長(chang)協(xie)合同量大(da)幅減少的情況，完善電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)中長(chang)期(qi)合同定(ding)價機制(zhi)和監督機制(zhi)，充分發揮中長(chang)協(xie)穩價保(bao)供的“壓艙(cang)石(shi)”作用(yong)；對(dui)產(chan)能減少和運(yun)力(li)受明顯制(zhi)約的區域合理安排運(yun)力(li)，在鐵路(lu)運(yun)力(li)配置上予以傾斜。

三是完(wan)善火電(dian)機(ji)組調(diao)峰輔(fu)助(zhu)服(fu)務補(bu)償(chang)機(ji)制，提(ti)高機(ji)組改造(zao)(zao)積極(ji)性，加快(kuai)煤電(dian)靈活性改造(zao)(zao)進度；給予專項資(zi)(zi)金補(bu)助(zhu)和專項債轉股政策傾斜(xie)，促(cu)進長期虧(kui)損的煤電(dian)企業扭虧(kui)轉盈，恢復(fu)自我融(rong)資(zi)(zi)能力，實(shi)現資(zi)(zi)金正常周轉，緩解煤電(dian)企業去杠桿壓(ya)力。

（四）統籌協調，著力促進新能源企業健康發展

建(jian)議做好新能源發展(zhan)節奏控(kong)制等工作。避免(mian)出現新能源裝機大規模集中(zhong)過(guo)快投(tou)產、系統(tong)調峰能力(li)不匹配導致的消納困(kun)難及(ji)加劇(ju)可再生能源補貼缺口(kou)。

一是(shi)適度控(kong)制海(hai)上(shang)(shang)風電(dian)開發(fa)(fa)(fa)進度，促(cu)進海(hai)上(shang)(shang)風電(dian)健康(kang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展。建議結合網源規劃(hua)和新能源消納情況，國(guo)家層面上(shang)(shang)統(tong)籌海(hai)上(shang)(shang)風電(dian)開發(fa)(fa)(fa)及布局，防止(zhi)地方“資(zi)源換(huan)產業(ye)”的不合理行政干(gan)預，避免出現大規模集中(zhong)投產現象，導(dao)致電(dian)量無法(fa)消納，造成資(zi)源浪費資(zi)產閑置；同時，推高可再生能源補貼缺口，企業(ye)投入無法(fa)按時回收成本，給經營造成壓力，更不利于風電(dian)全產業(ye)鏈健康(kang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展。

二(er)是(shi)合(he)理把握發展節(jie)奏，通過(guo)技(ji)術創(chuang)新(xin)引領風(feng)電、光伏產業實(shi)現平價(jia)上網(wang)。建議有序實(shi)施可(ke)再生(sheng)能源(yuan)補貼退坡(po)，避免釜底(di)抽薪式產業發展政策。通過(guo)合(he)理引導和市場化(hua)調節(jie)手段，加快建立產業鏈協同、產學研(yan)一體化(hua)的自主科技(ji)創(chuang)新(xin)體系，激發新(xin)能源(yuan)企業應(ying)用先進技(ji)術降本增效的動力(li)，逐步實(shi)現平價(jia)上網(wang)。

三(san)是落實可(ke)再(zai)生能源(yuan)(yuan)補(bu)貼(tie)資金(jin)(jin)。加快(kuai)可(ke)再(zai)生能源(yuan)(yuan)補(bu)貼(tie)目(mu)錄公布(bu)和補(bu)貼(tie)資金(jin)(jin)發(fa)放，通過(guo)市(shi)場化手段拓(tuo)寬資金(jin)(jin)來(lai)源(yuan)(yuan)，盡(jin)快(kuai)解決巨額拖欠問題；針對補(bu)貼(tie)不(bu)到位的情況，開發(fa)綠色信(xin)貸(dai)產品(pin)，解決由于補(bu)貼(tie)不(bu)到位造成的企業現金(jin)(jin)流短(duan)缺。