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5月(yue)16日下午，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)消費總量控制方案(an)和(he)政策研究項目（簡稱煤(mei)(mei)控研究項目）在(zai)京(jing)舉行中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)發展(zhan)形勢分析研討(tao)會(hui)。來(lai)自(zi)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)企業聯(lian)合會(hui)、國(guo)(guo)家(jia)發改委能源(yuan)研究所、國(guo)(guo)網(wang)能源(yuan)研究院(yuan)、國(guo)(guo)家(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)投資(zi)集(ji)團(tuan)等單(dan)位(wei)的(de)(de)多位(wei)專家(jia)認(ren)為，2019年全國(guo)(guo)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)很(hen)難繼續保持(chi)2018年的(de)(de)高速增長形勢，未(wei)來(lai)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)需求增長會(hui)進一步(bu)降低(di)。同時(shi)，新能源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應側(ce)的(de)(de)平(ping)價上網(wang)很(hen)快就會(hui)來(lai)臨，3-5年將會(hui)形成對煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)大規模替(ti)代，煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)競爭力(li)(li)會(hui)進一步(bu)的(de)(de)降低(di)。

該會議將發(fa)布了由華(hua)北電(dian)力大學撰寫的《“十三五”電(dian)力煤(mei)控中期評估與后(hou)期展(zhan)望》（以下簡稱報告(gao)）。

報告預計(ji)2020年全社會用電量將(jiang)達到(dao)7.54萬億千瓦(wa)時左右(you)。結合(he)對其(qi)他電源裝機及利(li)用率的預測，預計(ji)2020年發(fa)電煤炭消耗量將(jiang)為13.2億噸標煤左右(you)并達到(dao)峰(feng)值。報告最后(hou)針對“十三五”后(hou)期煤控形勢提出了一系(xi)列(lie)政策建議。

報告在分析(xi)2018年全(quan)國全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)8.5%時指出，新舊(jiu)動(dong)(dong)(dong)能(neng)轉換拉動(dong)(dong)(dong)全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.4%，電能(neng)替(ti)代(dai)拉動(dong)(dong)(dong)全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.4%，溫(wen)度異常和(he)污染治理分別拉動(dong)(dong)(dong)全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)1.2%和(he)0.5%。報告認(ren)為，電力如此高(gao)速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)不具(ju)有(you)可(ke)持續性。2019年第一季度全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電量增(zeng)速同比僅增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)5.5%，增(zeng)速比去(qu)年同期回落4.3%，已經印證(zheng)了這一點(dian)。

2019-2020年(nian)(nian)的電力增速則主要取決于舊動能和(he)新動能的轉換，即高耗能行業(ye)退(tui)坡速度和(he)現代服務(wu)業(ye)的增長速度。報告(gao)認為2020年(nian)(nian)全社會用電量(liang)將從2018年(nian)(nian)的6.84萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時增加到(dao)7.54萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，“十(shi)三五”期間年(nian)(nian)均用電增速5.8%。

報告同時對“十(shi)(shi)三(san)五(wu)“電力規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)作了中期評估(gu)。電力“十(shi)(shi)三(san)五(wu)”規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)提出(chu)2020全(quan)國發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量20億(yi)千(qian)瓦，年(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)長5.5%。截至2018年(nian)(nian)底，全(quan)國全(quan)口徑發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量19億(yi)千(qian)瓦，“十(shi)(shi)三(san)五(wu)”前三(san)年(nian)(nian)發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)年(nian)(nian)均增(zeng)長7.6%。報告指出(chu)，根據近(jin)年(nian)(nian)來電源發(fa)(fa)展趨勢特別是(shi)可再(zai)生能源的投產規(gui)(gui)模，若“十(shi)(shi)三(san)五(wu)”后期繼續保(bao)持7.6%的年(nian)(nian)均裝(zhuang)機(ji)增(zeng)速，則2020年(nian)(nian)全(quan)國發(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量將達到(dao)22.2億(yi)千(qian)瓦，遠高于(yu)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)目標。

其中，煤電(dian)、常規(gui)水電(dian)(含(han)抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)(neng))裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)與規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)目(mu)標(biao)(biao)保持一(yi)致；氣電(dian)由于(yu)價格和氣源供(gong)應等問(wen)題、核電(dian)由于(yu)工期延誤，預期裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)量(liang)將低于(yu)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)目(mu)標(biao)(biao)。截(jie)止(zhi)到2018年底，水電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)3.5億千(qian)瓦（含(han)抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)(neng)），完(wan)(wan)成規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)目(mu)標(biao)(biao)92.1%；火電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)11.4億千(qian)瓦（含(han)煤電(dian)10.1億千(qian)瓦，完(wan)(wan)成規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)目(mu)標(biao)(biao)91.8%、氣電(dian)8330萬(wan)千(qian)瓦，完(wan)(wan)成規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)目(mu)標(biao)(biao)75.7%）；核電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)4466萬(wan)千(qian)瓦，完(wan)(wan)成規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)目(mu)標(biao)(biao)77.1%；并網(wang)(wang)風電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)1.8億千(qian)瓦，完(wan)(wan)成規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)目(mu)標(biao)(biao)85.7%；并網(wang)(wang)太陽能(neng)(neng)發電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)1.7億千(qian)瓦，超出規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)目(mu)標(biao)(biao)54.6%。

根據評估結果，報告建議對“十(shi)三(san)(san)五(wu)”規(gui)劃(hua)目標(biao)進行適當調整，將(jiang)太陽能(neng)、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)規(gui)劃(hua)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容量(liang)(liang)提(ti)升至(zhi)2.7億千(qian)瓦(wa)和2.3億千(qian)瓦(wa)，氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)規(gui)劃(hua)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容量(liang)(liang)降至(zhi)1億千(qian)瓦(wa)和5500萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)，其他(ta)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源規(gui)劃(hua)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機不(bu)變。此外，2018年非化石能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)占(zhan)總發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)比重已達29.6%，若(ruo)十(shi)三(san)(san)五(wu)后(hou)期(qi)“三(san)(san)棄”問題進一步改善，則2020年非化石能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)比重有望(wang)提(ti)升至(zhi)32%-34%，超(chao)出“十(shi)三(san)(san)五(wu)”規(gui)劃(hua)31%的目標(biao)。

在(zai)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)方面(mian)，報告指出，2017年現(xian)役(yi)煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)機組(zu)平(ping)均供電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)耗已降至309克標(biao)煤(mei)(mei)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，提前完(wan)成了“十(shi)(shi)三(san)五(wu)(wu)”規(gui)劃310克標(biao)煤(mei)(mei)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時的(de)(de)目標(biao)。但報告同時認為(wei)，由(you)于超低(di)和清(qing)潔高效改造已基(ji)(ji)本(ben)完(wan)成，考慮到(dao)現(xian)役(yi)裝機的(de)(de)巨大基(ji)(ji)數(shu)，后兩年新投產(chan)高效率機組(zu)帶來的(de)(de)效率提升空間(jian)相對(dui)有(you)限。報告估算2020年電(dian)(dian)力(li)行業(ye)煤(mei)(mei)炭消費量將從2018年的(de)(de)12.6億(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)標(biao)煤(mei)(mei)增長到(dao)（電(dian)(dian)力(li)需求(qiu)7.5萬(wan)億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時）13.2億(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)標(biao)煤(mei)(mei)，這(zhe)一數(shu)字高于“十(shi)(shi)三(san)五(wu)(wu)”規(gui)劃（電(dian)(dian)力(li)需求(qiu)7.2萬(wan)億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時）下的(de)(de)12.3億(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)標(biao)煤(mei)(mei)和電(dian)(dian)力(li)規(gui)劃設計總院規(gui)劃情景（電(dian)(dian)力(li)需求(qiu)7.4萬(wan)億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時）下的(de)(de)12.9億(yi)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)標(biao)煤(mei)(mei)。

報(bao)告(gao)(gao)指出，新舊動(dong)能轉換(huan)、經濟(ji)的(de)(de)(de)高(gao)質量(liang)發展和(he)清潔能源(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)快(kuai)速發展有利于(yu)(yu)我(wo)國“十三五”后(hou)期的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)煤控工(gong)作(zuo)。即便在(zai)高(gao)增長情(qing)景(jing)下的(de)(de)(de)7.5萬億千(qian)瓦時，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)業煤耗(hao)也(ye)將于(yu)(yu)2020年達峰（13.2億噸），之后(hou)將處于(yu)(yu)平(ping)臺期，并(bing)隨著煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)定位(wei)調整和(he)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)效率小(xiao)幅提高(gao)而呈(cheng)緩(huan)慢下降趨勢。對于(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)業的(de)(de)(de)煤控工(gong)作(zuo)，報(bao)告(gao)(gao)認為未來需要做(zuo)到如下幾點(dian)：（1）持(chi)續推進煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)供給側改革(ge)，實現煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)高(gao)質量(liang)發展（2）提升(sheng)能效水平(ping)，加(jia)強需求側管(guan)理；（3）持(chi)續深化電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)體(ti)制改革(ge)，加(jia)速推進電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市場化建設；（4）促進可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)消納，推動(dong)可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)平(ping)價上(shang)網，加(jia)速提高(gao)可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)份額(e)。