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近年來，我國新能源快速發展，風電和太陽能發電量占總發電量的比例從2010年的1.2%提高至2021年的11.7%，風光電量占比已超過全球平均水平。在積極應對氣候變化的背景下，加快發展風電和太陽能發電等新能源成為我國能源綠色低碳轉型的必然選擇，也是實現“雙碳”目標的先手棋。未來，既要為新能源發展開山鋪路，也要推動新能源承擔更多責任義務，支撐構建新型電力系統。

新能源占比逐漸提高是大勢所趨

風(feng)光(guang)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)潛力巨大。《中(zhong)共中(zhong)央國務院關于完整準確(que)全面(mian)貫徹(che)新發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)理念做好碳達峰碳中(zhong)和(he)(he)工作的(de)意見(jian)》明確(que)提出(chu)，2060年(nian)非化石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)比(bi)重(zhong)達到80%以上(shang)。我國水電(dian)、核電(dian)可開發(fa)量有限，水電(dian)技(ji)術可開發(fa)裝機約6.9億千瓦，預計(ji)未(wei)來常規(gui)水電(dian)裝機可達到5億千瓦左(zuo)右。現(xian)有核電(dian)技(ji)術發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)受限于廠址資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)和(he)(he)鈾資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)，預計(ji)2060年(nian)前很難實現(xian)大規(gui)模(mo)商業(ye)(ye)化應用。相比(bi)之下，風(feng)能(neng)(neng)和(he)(he)太(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)儲量極為(wei)豐富(fu)，隨(sui)著技(ji)術突破和(he)(he)產業(ye)(ye)規(gui)模(mo)化發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，風(feng)電(dian)和(he)(he)太(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)成本(ben)將持(chi)續降低，在裝機結構(gou)中(zhong)的(de)比(bi)例(li)將持(chi)續提高。

新能源轉向主(zhu)體(ti)電(dian)源應循序漸進。雖然目前陸上風(feng)電(dian)和光伏發電(dian)已實(shi)現平價上網，但還(huan)(huan)難以(yi)實(shi)現對傳(chuan)統(tong)電(dian)源的安全可(ke)靠(kao)替代，發展規(gui)模還(huan)(huan)受(shou)電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)消(xiao)納(na)能力(li)制約(yue)，短時(shi)間內(nei)大幅度(du)提高風(feng)光電(dian)量比(bi)例(li)面臨很大困難。未(wei)來，新型電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)將(jiang)在電(dian)源結構、運行(xing)方式、底層邏輯(ji)等(deng)方面與當前電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)有本質上的區別，推動(dong)新能源成(cheng)為主(zhu)體(ti)電(dian)源不(bu)(bu)可(ke)能一(yi)蹴(cu)而(er)就。根據(ju)國務院《2030年(nian)前碳達峰行(xing)動(dong)方案》，2030年(nian)風(feng)電(dian)和太陽能發電(dian)裝機達到(dao)(dao)12億(yi)千瓦以(yi)上，屆時(shi)風(feng)光發電(dian)量占比(bi)達到(dao)(dao)20%左右(you)，仍然不(bu)(bu)能成(cheng)為主(zhu)體(ti)電(dian)源。根據(ju)研究預測，到(dao)(dao)2050年(nian)以(yi)后，風(feng)光電(dian)量有望達到(dao)(dao)50%以(yi)上，成(cheng)為電(dian)量主(zhu)體(ti)。除此(ci)之外，還(huan)(huan)應考量其能否承(cheng)擔保障(zhang)供電(dian)安全的主(zhu)體(ti)責任。因此(ci)，新能源要成(cheng)為主(zhu)體(ti)電(dian)源還(huan)(huan)需要一(yi)個長期過程(cheng)，應實(shi)事求是、循序漸進。

新能源高比例發展面臨挑戰

充分消納。當前(qian)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和光伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)消納依賴火電(dian)(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)等常(chang)規電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)進行(xing)調(diao)節。隨(sui)著風(feng)光發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)快速發(fa)展，常(chang)規電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)占(zhan)比將(jiang)持續(xu)下降，如果繼續(xu)沿用當前(qian)的消納模式，將(jiang)遠(yuan)遠(yuan)不能支撐新(xin)能源(yuan)成(cheng)長為主體電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)。另外，激勵新(xin)能源(yuan)消納的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市場體系(xi)還不完善，提升電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)靈活調(diao)節能力(li)的投資(zi)成(cheng)本(ben)疏(shu)導(dao)機制還不健全，系(xi)統消納新(xin)能源(yuan)的潛(qian)力(li)未能得到充分發(fa)揮。

穩定供電(dian)(dian)。風電(dian)(dian)和(he)太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)出力(li)受氣(qi)(qi)候(hou)、天氣(qi)(qi)影響很大(da)，無法持續穩定供電(dian)(dian)或根(gen)據(ju)負荷需求(qiu)調節發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)出力(li)。為保(bao)障電(dian)(dian)力(li)供需平(ping)衡，實現穩定供應，既需要(yao)解決新能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)隨(sui)機性和(he)波動性問題，實現穩定輸出;又需要(yao)解決新能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)與用電(dian)(dian)負荷峰(feng)谷(gu)變化(hua)的匹配問題，實現調峰(feng)運行(xing);還需要(yao)應對連續陰雨、多日無風等特(te)殊(shu)天氣(qi)(qi)，解決較長時段的電(dian)(dian)量不足問題。

安全運(yun)行(xing)。風電(dian)和(he)光(guang)伏發電(dian)與常規(gui)火電(dian)、水(shui)電(dian)、核電(dian)等同(tong)步發電(dian)機不同(tong)，廣泛采用整(zheng)流器(qi)、逆變器(qi)等電(dian)力電(dian)子器(qi)件，轉動慣量低，運(yun)行(xing)特征復雜(za)，調頻能力和(he)無功支撐能力不足(zu)，大規(gui)模并網將顯(xian)著(zhu)改變傳統電(dian)力系統的(de)運(yun)行(xing)規(gui)律(lv)和(he)特性。數字化(hua)智能化(hua)程度提高在推(tui)動系統升級的(de)同(tong)時，還可(ke)能帶來(lai)網絡安全等非(fei)傳統安全風險。

地域匹配。我國新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)和(he)(he)需求逆(ni)向(xiang)分(fen)布(bu)，中東部地區用(yong)電(dian)(dian)負荷較大，但(dan)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發展(zhan)受資源(yuan)(yuan)條件、土地、環保等因素制(zhi)約，即使充分(fen)考慮(lv)中東部積極(ji)發展(zhan)分(fen)布(bu)式(shi)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)和(he)(he)海上風電(dian)(dian)，仍(reng)然難以通(tong)過本地新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)滿足自身用(yong)電(dian)(dian)需求，還需要繼續擴大“西(xi)電(dian)(dian)東送(song)(song)”規模，實現新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)跨(kua)省區優化配置。但(dan)是(shi)，新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)大規模遠距離輸(shu)送(song)(song)面臨(lin)通(tong)道(dao)走廊(lang)資源(yuan)(yuan)緊(jin)張、通(tong)道(dao)利用(yong)小時數(shu)低、送(song)(song)端(duan)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)支(zhi)撐能(neng)力不(bu)(bu)足、交流網(wang)架(jia)不(bu)(bu)適應(ying)等諸多問題。

科(ke)學調度(du)。當前調度(du)系(xi)統建立在信(xin)息可(ke)預(yu)測、可(ke)控制(zhi)的基(ji)礎上，隨著(zhu)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)和太陽能發電(dian)(dian)快速發展，調度(du)系(xi)統需要處理的電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)規模(mo)、元件數量(liang)、分布范圍、各種時間尺(chi)度(du)的不確(que)定信(xin)息將呈指數級增長，新型(xing)儲(chu)能、車網互(hu)動(dong)(V2G)、源(yuan)(yuan)網荷儲(chu)一(yi)體化等新模(mo)式將使得(de)電(dian)(dian)力供需從單向(xiang)流動(dong)轉為雙向(xiang)互(hu)動(dong)，現(xian)有調度(du)體系(xi)難以滿足未來發展需要。

“十四五”推動新能源發展的舉措

加(jia)強電(dian)源側調(diao)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)力(li)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)。提高電(dian)源側調(diao)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)力(li)是(shi)優化電(dian)源側出(chu)力(li)特性、緩解風電(dian)和太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)發電(dian)消納問題(ti)、實現(xian)穩定供電(dian)的必要手(shou)段。《“十(shi)四(si)(si)五”現(xian)代能(neng)(neng)源體(ti)系(xi)(xi)規劃》(以下(xia)簡稱《規劃》)并(bing)沒有把系(xi)(xi)統調(diao)節(jie)(jie)責(ze)任全(quan)部推給(gei)常(chang)規電(dian)源，而是(shi)首先強調(diao)了風光發電(dian)自身的責(ze)任義務，要提高功率預測水平(ping)，完(wan)善(shan)并(bing)網標準體(ti)系(xi)(xi)，建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)系(xi)(xi)統友好型新能(neng)(neng)源場站(zhan)。同時，也對其他電(dian)源調(diao)節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)力(li)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)作出(chu)了要求，要全(quan)面實施煤電(dian)機(ji)組靈(ling)活性改(gai)(gai)造，到(dao)2025年(nian)累計改(gai)(gai)造規模超過(guo)2億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦;加(jia)快抽水蓄能(neng)(neng)電(dian)站(zhan)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)，到(dao)2025年(nian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量達到(dao)6200萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦以上;因地(di)制宜(yi)建(jian)設(she)(she)(she)天然氣調(diao)峰(feng)電(dian)站(zhan)，“十(shi)四(si)(si)五”新增氣電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)5000萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦左(zuo)右;因地(di)制宜(yi)發展儲熱(re)型太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)熱(re)發電(dian);推動(dong)多(duo)種電(dian)源聯合優化運(yun)行等。

提(ti)升負(fu)荷(he)側(ce)靈(ling)活互動(dong)能力(li)。通(tong)過加強負(fu)荷(he)側(ce)靈(ling)活互動(dong)能力(li)，可以提(ti)高負(fu)荷(he)與(yu)電源的(de)匹配(pei)程度，有(you)利于更大規(gui)模(mo)的(de)風光發電消納(na)利用。目(mu)前(qian)需求(qiu)側(ce)響應主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)針(zhen)對大用戶(hu)，響應類型以“削(xue)峰”為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)，集(ji)中在迎峰度夏、迎峰度冬等特(te)定時(shi)(shi)段，轉移負(fu)荷(he)“填谷”規(gui)模(mo)十分有(you)限。響應方式以提(ti)前(qian)通(tong)知(zhi)、計劃(hua)安排為(wei)主(zhu)(zhu)，用戶(hu)在實(shi)時(shi)(shi)價格信號的(de)激(ji)勵(li)下主(zhu)(zhu)動(dong)參(can)(can)與(yu)響應的(de)規(gui)模(mo)較(jiao)小(xiao)，“源荷(he)雙(shuang)向互動(dong)”的(de)供需模(mo)式尚未形(xing)成。《規(gui)劃(hua)》提(ti)出(chu)，要(yao)高比(bi)例(li)釋放居民、一般工商(shang)業用電負(fu)荷(he)的(de)彈(dan)性(xing)，開展各類資源聚合的(de)虛擬電廠示范。上述舉(ju)措將進一步引導需求(qiu)側(ce)資源參(can)(can)與(yu)電力(li)市場(chang)交易，有(you)利于提(ti)高系統靈(ling)活性(xing)和(he)新能源消納(na)水平。

加快(kuai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)結構(gou)模(mo)式變革。當前電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)對(dui)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)以(yi)及(ji)(ji)分布式電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)、微(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽車等多(duo)元主(zhu)體的(de)接納能(neng)(neng)(neng)力較弱，網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)架結構(gou)對(dui)大規模(mo)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)并網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)的(de)支撐(cheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力不足，輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)道傳輸(shu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力有限，現役(yi)跨(kua)省區特高壓(ya)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)道及(ji)(ji)部分點對(dui)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)通(tong)道平(ping)均(jun)可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量占比僅30%左右。《規劃(hua)》明確了電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)結構(gou)形態的(de)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)方(fang)(fang)向，即微(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)與(yu)大電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)兼容互補發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)。在配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)和微(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)，要加快(kuai)配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)改造升級，提(ti)高配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)接納新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)和多(duo)元化負荷(he)的(de)承(cheng)載力和靈活性，積極發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)以(yi)消納新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)為主(zhu)的(de)智能(neng)(neng)(neng)微(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)。在大電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)(mian)，要完善主(zhu)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)架結構(gou)，推(tui)動(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)之間柔性可(ke)控互聯(lian)，提(ti)升電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)適應新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)動(dong)態穩定水平(ping)，科學推(tui)進新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)跨(kua)省區輸(shu)送(song)，提(ti)高全網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)消納新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力。

推進能(neng)(neng)(neng)源技術(shu)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)突破(po)。技術(shu)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)是推動新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源發展的(de)核(he)心驅動力(li)(li)，儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)和氫(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)技術(shu)是破(po)解新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源發展難題(ti)的(de)重(zhong)要突破(po)口。“十(shi)三五”時期鋰離子電池(chi)、液流(liu)電池(chi)、壓縮空氣儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)已取(qu)得顯著進步，但經濟性(xing)和安(an)(an)全(quan)性(xing)仍(reng)然不夠理想。氫(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)可作為新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消納存儲(chu)的(de)重(zhong)要能(neng)(neng)(neng)量載(zai)體(ti)，但目前(qian)應(ying)用規(gui)模(mo)仍(reng)然比較小，產(chan)業鏈還(huan)不健全(quan)。《規(gui)劃(hua)》提出，強化(hua)(hua)氫(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)、儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)前(qian)沿(yan)科技攻關，推動儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)成本持續下(xia)降(jiang)和規(gui)模(mo)化(hua)(hua)應(ying)用，提升安(an)(an)全(quan)運行水平，著力(li)(li)攻克可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源制氫(qing)和氫(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)儲(chu)運、應(ying)用及燃料電池(chi)等(deng)核(he)心技術(shu)。此外，《規(gui)劃(hua)》還(huan)強調發展模(mo)式的(de)創(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)，推動多能(neng)(neng)(neng)互補、源網荷(he)儲(chu)一體(ti)化(hua)(hua)、新(xin)型電力(li)(li)系統(tong)、智(zhi)慧能(neng)(neng)(neng)源系統(tong)技術(shu)示范(fan)等(deng)。

加(jia)快(kuai)(kuai)配套體制(zhi)機制(zhi)變(bian)革。新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的快(kuai)(kuai)速發展需要體制(zhi)機制(zhi)的引導和保(bao)障(zhang)(zhang)。當(dang)前新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發展的配套體制(zhi)機制(zhi)還(huan)存在(zai)不足，激勵(li)系統調節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)建設(she)(she)和共享收益(yi)的市(shi)場(chang)機制(zhi)還(huan)不健全。《規劃》提(ti)出，要創新有利于(yu)非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)消(xiao)納的電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)調度和交易(yi)機制(zhi)，推動(dong)非化石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)有序參與電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)交易(yi)，通過市(shi)場(chang)化方式拓展消(xiao)納空間，引導支持(chi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)設(she)(she)施、需求側資源(yuan)參與電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)，建立可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)納責(ze)任權重(zhong)引導機制(zhi)，研究(jiu)制(zhi)定(ding)可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)納增量(liang)激勵(li)政策，推廣(guang)綠(lv)色電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)證書(shu)交易(yi)，加(jia)強可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)消(xiao)納保(bao)障(zhang)(zhang)等。隨著體制(zhi)機制(zhi)和市(shi)場(chang)體系逐漸完善，將充(chong)分調動(dong)全社會開發利用新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的積(ji)極(ji)性(xing)，促進新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)快(kuai)(kuai)速高(gao)質量(liang)發展。