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上(shang)半年，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)生(sheng)產運行平(ping)穩(wen)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)供(gong)需(xu)(xu)總(zong)體(ti)平(ping)衡。全(quan)(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量平(ping)穩(wen)增長(chang)，第三(san)產業(ye)和城鄉(xiang)居(ju)民生(sheng)活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量較(jiao)快增長(chang)、貢獻突出；電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)延(yan)續綠色低碳發展態(tai)勢，非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)比重(zhong)繼續提高，非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量快速增長(chang)；受(shou)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價進一步(bu)降低、燃料成本持續高位、可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源補貼嚴重(zhong)滯后等因(yin)素影響(xiang)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)企(qi)業(ye)經營總(zong)體(ti)仍比較(jiao)困難。預計下半年，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)消費將延(yan)續上(shang)半年的平(ping)穩(wen)增長(chang)態(tai)勢，全(quan)(quan)年全(quan)(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量同比增長(chang)5.5%左(zuo)右(you)；年底全(quan)(quan)國(guo)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量20億千瓦左(zuo)右(you)；全(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)供(gong)需(xu)(xu)總(zong)體(ti)平(ping)衡，迎峰度夏期間部分地區電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)供(gong)需(xu)(xu)偏緊、高峰時段存在電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)缺口(kou)。

一、2019年上半年全國電力供需情況

（一）全社會用電量平穩增長，第三產業和城鄉居民生活用電量較快增長

上半年，全(quan)國全(quan)社會(hui)用電量3.40萬億千(qian)瓦時、同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)5.0%，一、二季度分(fen)別增(zeng)長(chang)5.5%、4.5%。電力消費(fei)主(zhu)要(yao)特點有:

一是(shi)第一產業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)量中速增長。上半年，第一產業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)量345億千瓦時、同(tong)比增長5.0%，增速比上年同(tong)期降(jiang)低5.3個百分點；占全社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)量比重為1.0%、與(yu)上年同(tong)期持平。

二(er)(er)是第二(er)(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)及其制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)穩定增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)。上(shang)(shang)半年，第二(er)(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)2.31萬(wan)億(yi)千瓦(wa)時、同比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.1%，增(zeng)(zeng)速比上(shang)(shang)年同期(qi)降(jiang)低4.5個百分(fen)點，一、二(er)(er)季度分(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.0%、3.1%。第二(er)(er)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)對全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)貢(gong)獻率為42.6%，比上(shang)(shang)年同期(qi)降(jiang)低13.9個百分(fen)點；占全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)比重為68.0%，比上(shang)(shang)年同期(qi)降(jiang)低1.3個百分(fen)點。制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)1.72萬(wan)億(yi)千瓦(wa)時、同比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.4%，一、二(er)(er)季度同比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)均(jun)為3.4%。從制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)幾大類行業(ye)來(lai)看(kan)，高技術及裝備制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)[1]用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.5%；消費品制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)[2]用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)2.1%；四大高載能(neng)行業(ye)[3]用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)3.4%，其中(zhong)，建材行業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)6.1%，黑色(se)行業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)5.9%，化(hua)工行業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)1.3%，有色(se)行業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)1.2%。

三(san)(san)是(shi)第三(san)(san)產業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)繼(ji)續(xu)保持較(jiao)快增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)。上(shang)半年，第三(san)(san)產業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)5552億(yi)千(qian)瓦(wa)時、同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)9.4%，一(yi)、二季度分別(bie)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)10.1%、8.6%；對全社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)的貢獻(xian)率為(wei)29.5%，比上(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期提(ti)高(gao)6.1個百分點(dian)；占全社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)比重為(wei)16.3%、比上(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期提(ti)高(gao)0.7個百分點(dian)。其中，信息傳輸(shu)、軟件和(he)信息技(ji)術服(fu)(fu)務(wu)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)繼(ji)續(xu)保持快速增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)勢(shi)頭(tou)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)13.6%；租(zu)賃和(he)商務(wu)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)業(ye)(ye)、房(fang)地產業(ye)(ye)、批(pi)發(fa)和(he)零售(shou)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比分別(bie)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)12.9%、11.9%、10.7%；交通運輸(shu)/倉儲和(he)郵政(zheng)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)8.6%。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能替(ti)代持續(xu)推(tui)廣催生第三(san)(san)產業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)新(xin)亮點(dian)，充換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)服(fu)(fu)務(wu)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)129.0%，港口岸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)316.9%，城市公(gong)共交通運輸(shu)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)18.6%。

四是城鄉居民生活(huo)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量繼續保持(chi)較快增長。上半年(nian)，城鄉居民生活(huo)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量4993億千瓦時、同(tong)比增長9.6%，一、二(er)季度分別(bie)增長11.0%、7.7%；對全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量增長的貢獻率為(wei)27.0%，比上年(nian)同(tong)期提高(gao)7.9個百分點；占全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量比重為(wei)14.7%、比上年(nian)同(tong)期提高(gao)0.6個百分點。

五是絕大(da)部(bu)(bu)分省(sheng)份用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)均為(wei)正增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。上半(ban)年，東、中(zhong)、西部(bu)(bu)和(he)(he)東北(bei)地(di)區全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)分別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.3%、6.4%、7.3%和(he)(he)3.5%，中(zhong)部(bu)(bu)和(he)(he)西部(bu)(bu)地(di)區增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速領先于東部(bu)(bu)和(he)(he)東北(bei)地(di)區；各地(di)區用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)占全國(guo)(guo)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)的比(bi)(bi)重分別為(wei)47.0%、19.1%、27.9%和(he)(he)6.0%，用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)對全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的貢獻(xian)率分別為(wei)31.7%、24.0%、40.1%和(he)(he)4.2%。青海(hai)、甘肅、上海(hai)3個(ge)(ge)省(sheng)(市)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降，降幅分別為(wei)2.8%、0.7%、0.1%；28個(ge)(ge)省(sheng)份用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)正增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，14個(ge)(ge)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速超過(guo)全國(guo)(guo)平(ping)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)水平(ping)的省(sheng)份中(zhong)，除海(hai)南、河北(bei)外，其余均屬于中(zhong)、西部(bu)(bu)省(sheng)份。

（二）電力延續綠色低碳發展趨勢，非化石能源發電量快速增長

截(jie)至(zhi)6月底，全國(guo)全口徑發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容量19.4億(yi)千瓦、同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增長6.1%，其中非化石能源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機容量占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)41.2%、同比(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)高1.4個(ge)百分點(dian)；全國(guo)規(gui)模(mo)以上電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量為3.37萬(wan)億(yi)千瓦時(shi)(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增長3.3%；全國(guo)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)設備(bei)利(li)用小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)1834小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)(bi)下降24小(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供應主要特點(dian)有：

一(yi)是全國新(xin)增(zeng)裝機規模同(tong)比減少。上(shang)半年，全國新(xin)增(zeng)發電(dian)裝機容(rong)量4074萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、同(tong)比少投產(chan)1194萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，主要(yao)是新(xin)增(zeng)太(tai)陽能(neng)裝機容(rong)量1164萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、同(tong)比少投產(chan)1417萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。新(xin)增(zeng)非(fei)化石能(neng)源發電(dian)裝機容(rong)量2506萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，占(zhan)新(xin)增(zeng)發電(dian)裝機總容(rong)量的61.5%。新(xin)增(zeng)煤電(dian)裝機984萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、同(tong)比少投產(chan)54萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。

二(er)是非化石能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)快速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。上半年，全(quan)國(guo)規(gui)模以(yi)上電(dian)廠(chang)(chang)水(shui)電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)5138億千(qian)瓦時(shi)、同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)11.8%，核電(dian)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)1600億千(qian)瓦時(shi)、同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)23.1%，全(quan)口(kou)徑并(bing)網(wang)風電(dian)、并(bing)網(wang)太陽能(neng)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別為2145、1063億千(qian)瓦時(shi)，同(tong)比(bi)分(fen)(fen)別增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)11.5%、29.1%。受用電(dian)需(xu)求增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)放緩、水(shui)電(dian)等(deng)非化石能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)快速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)等(deng)因素影響(xiang)，全(quan)國(guo)規(gui)模以(yi)上火(huo)電(dian)廠(chang)(chang)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)2.45萬(wan)億千(qian)瓦時(shi)、同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)0.2%。

三(san)是水電(dian)(dian)和太陽能發電(dian)(dian)設備(bei)利用小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)提高。上半年，全國水電(dian)(dian)設備(bei)利用小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)1674小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)提高169小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)；火電(dian)(dian)2066小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)60小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，其中，煤電(dian)(dian)2127小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)57小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，氣電(dian)(dian)1212小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)121小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)；核(he)電(dian)(dian)3429小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)118小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)；并網風(feng)電(dian)(dian)1133小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)10小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，為2013年以來的(de)第二高水平，僅(jin)低于(yu)2018年同(tong)(tong)期；并網太陽能發電(dian)(dian)650小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)提高13小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)。棄(qi)風(feng)棄(qi)光問題繼續改善，國家電(dian)(dian)網公司、南方電(dian)(dian)網公司經營區域內新(xin)能源利用率均超過(guo)95%。

四是110千伏(fu)及(ji)(ji)以(yi)下(xia)電網(wang)投(tou)資比(bi)(bi)重同比(bi)(bi)提高(gao)。上半年，全國基建新增(zeng)220千伏(fu)及(ji)(ji)以(yi)上變電設備(bei)容(rong)量(liang)13238萬千伏(fu)安、同比(bi)(bi)少投(tou)產(chan)1743萬千伏(fu)安；新增(zeng)220千伏(fu)及(ji)(ji)以(yi)上輸電線(xian)路長度16292千米、同比(bi)(bi)少投(tou)產(chan)6105千米。110千伏(fu)及(ji)(ji)以(yi)下(xia)電網(wang)投(tou)資占(zhan)電網(wang)總投(tou)資的比(bi)(bi)重為64.3%，比(bi)(bi)上年同期提高(gao)8.2個百(bai)分點，配(pei)網(wang)建設及(ji)(ji)農網(wang)改造(zao)升級是當前電網(wang)投(tou)資建設重點。

五(wu)是跨(kua)區(qu)跨(kua)省(sheng)(sheng)送(song)(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)量較(jiao)快增(zeng)長(chang)，清潔能(neng)源得到大(da)范圍優化配置。上(shang)半年，全國跨(kua)區(qu)、跨(kua)省(sheng)(sheng)送(song)(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)量分別完成2243、6426億千瓦(wa)(wa)時，同比分別增(zeng)長(chang)11.2%、12.0%。西北區(qu)域(yu)(yu)是外(wai)送(song)(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)量最多(duo)的(de)區(qu)域(yu)(yu)，上(shang)半年外(wai)送(song)(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)量911億千瓦(wa)(wa)時，占全國跨(kua)區(qu)送(song)(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)量的(de)40.6%，外(wai)送(song)(song)(song)電(dian)(dian)量比上(shang)年增(zeng)長(chang)15.9%。

六是(shi)電(dian)(dian)力燃料(liao)供應(ying)總(zong)體(ti)平(ping)衡(heng)，電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)價格高(gao)位波動。上半年，全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)規(gui)模以(yi)上煤(mei)(mei)礦原煤(mei)(mei)產(chan)(chan)量增(zeng)長3.7%，全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)進口(kou)量增(zeng)長5.7%，全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)廠發電(dian)(dian)及(ji)供熱消耗煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)增(zeng)長3.4%，全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)廠存煤(mei)(mei)總(zong)體(ti)處于高(gao)位，電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)供應(ying)總(zong)體(ti)平(ping)衡(heng)。受煤(mei)(mei)礦安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)事(shi)故、安(an)全(quan)(quan)(quan)生產(chan)(chan)督查、公路超限(xian)超載運(yun)輸治理(li)等(deng)因素影(ying)響，局(ju)部(bu)地區(qu)部(bu)分時段電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)供應(ying)偏緊。電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)價格總(zong)體(ti)高(gao)位波動，2月份以(yi)來，CECI沿海指數各期綜(zong)合價均超過(guo)《關(guan)于印發平(ping)抑煤(mei)(mei)炭(tan)市場價格異常(chang)波動的備忘錄的通知》（發改運(yun)行〔2016〕2808號）規(gui)定的綠色區(qu)間上限(xian)，國(guo)內煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)企業燃料(liao)成本居高(gao)不下。

（三）全國電力供需總體平衡，局部地區出現錯避峰

上半年(nian)，全國電力(li)(li)供(gong)需總體(ti)平(ping)衡。其中，東北(bei)、西(xi)北(bei)電網區域電力(li)(li)供(gong)應能(neng)力(li)(li)富余；華(hua)北(bei)、華(hua)中、華(hua)東、南方(fang)電網區域電力(li)(li)供(gong)需總體(ti)平(ping)衡，江(jiang)西(xi)、湖北(bei)、海南等省份部分時段出現錯避峰。

二、全國電力供需形勢預測

（一）下半年用電量延續平穩增長態勢，全年增長5.5%左右

綜(zong)合考慮國(guo)內(nei)外宏觀經濟(ji)形(xing)勢、電能替代、上(shang)年(nian)(nian)基(ji)數(shu)、環保安全(quan)(quan)(quan)檢查等因素，下半年(nian)(nian)電力消(xiao)費(fei)仍(reng)將(jiang)延續上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)的平(ping)穩增(zeng)長態勢，預計2019年(nian)(nian)全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)社會用電量同(tong)比增(zeng)長5.5%左右(you)。若(ruo)夏季全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)大(da)部地區(qu)氣溫低(di)于2018年(nian)(nian)同(tong)期，全(quan)(quan)(quan)年(nian)(nian)用電量實際增(zeng)速可能會偏(pian)低(di)于預測值。

（二）總裝機容量年底達20億千瓦，非化石能源裝機比重提高至42%

預計2019年全(quan)(quan)國(guo)新增發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)1.1億(yi)千瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)(you)；截(jie)至2019年底，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)20億(yi)千瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)(you)，同比(bi)增長6%；非化石能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)合(he)計8.4億(yi)千瓦(wa)、占總裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)比(bi)重上(shang)升至42%左(zuo)右(you)(you)，其中，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)3.6億(yi)千瓦(wa)、并(bing)網風電(dian)(dian)(dian)2.1億(yi)千瓦(wa)、并(bing)網太(tai)陽能(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)2.0億(yi)千瓦(wa)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)4900萬千瓦(wa)、生物(wu)質發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)2200萬千瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)(you)。

預(yu)計2019年底，全國(guo)發電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容量可(ke)提前達到2020年20億千(qian)瓦(wa)的規劃目標(biao)，太陽能發電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容量遠超(chao)2020年1.1億千(qian)瓦(wa)的規劃目標(biao)，非化石能源發電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機比重也(ye)將(jiang)超(chao)過2020年39%的規劃目標(biao)。

（三）全國電力供需總體平衡，迎峰度夏期間部分地區偏緊

預計下半年全國電力(li)供需總體平(ping)衡，部分(fen)(fen)地區(qu)電力(li)供需偏緊，迎(ying)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)度(du)夏(xia)高(gao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)時段存在電力(li)缺口。分(fen)(fen)區(qu)域看，華(hua)北、華(hua)中區(qu)域高(gao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)時段電力(li)供需緊張，部分(fen)(fen)省份在高(gao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)時段需要采取錯避峰(feng)(feng)(feng)措(cuo)施；華(hua)東、南方區(qu)域電力(li)供需總體平(ping)衡；東北、西北區(qu)域電力(li)供應富(fu)余。預計全年火電設備利用小(xiao)時略(lve)低于2018年的4378小(xiao)時。

三、有關建議

當前已進入(ru)迎(ying)峰度夏關鍵期，下半年重(zhong)大(da)活動保電(dian)(dian)任務較為繁(fan)重(zhong)，要切實(shi)按照高質量發展要求，做好用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)預(yu)(yu)測預(yu)(yu)警(jing)和(he)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)服務，保證電(dian)(dian)力燃(ran)料供(gong)給(gei)，保障電(dian)(dian)力生產供(gong)應，緩解電(dian)(dian)力企業經營困難，滿足實(shi)體經濟和(he)行業發展要求、以及(ji)人民美好生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)需(xu)(xu)求。結合電(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)(xu)分析與預(yu)(yu)測，提(ti)出建議如下：

（一）密切跟蹤宏觀經濟形勢變化，助力實體經濟發展

建議(yi)加強用電監測分析預警，落實好(hao)一般工商(shang)業降電價政策，做好(hao)電力(li)服(fu)務與電能(neng)替代等工作，助力(li)實體經濟發(fa)展。

一是建立政府相關部(bu)門與行(xing)業(ye)(ye)協(xie)(xie)會溝通協(xie)(xie)調機制(zhi)，完善(shan)涉美出口(kou)企業(ye)(ye)清單(dan)，密(mi)切跟蹤對美進出口(kou)企業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電及業(ye)(ye)擴數據變(bian)化(hua)，加(jia)強分行(xing)業(ye)(ye)、分地區用(yong)電分析預測，服務(wu)宏觀經濟決策和(he)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)發(fa)展。

二是在落實(shi)2019年一般工商(shang)業(ye)平均電(dian)(dian)價再降10%要求基(ji)礎上，持續(xu)清理規范(fan)轉供電(dian)(dian)環節不合(he)理加價，確保將降電(dian)(dian)價紅(hong)利惠及終端用(yong)戶，實(shi)現用(yong)電(dian)(dian)企業(ye)降本(ben)增效。

三是持續優化(hua)供電組(zu)織體系和業(ye)務流程，提高需求響應速度(du)和服務質量，縮短企業(ye)“獲得電力(li)”時間，優化(hua)營(ying)商環境，服務實體經濟發(fa)展。

四是加大燃煤自備電(dian)廠清(qing)潔(jie)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)(dai)、工(gong)業鍋（窯）爐替(ti)(ti)代(dai)(dai)，聚焦工(gong)業生產(chan)、交通運輸、鄉村電(dian)氣化(hua)等重(zhong)點領域，加大替(ti)(ti)代(dai)(dai)推(tui)廣力度；逐步提高電(dian)能占終端能源比重(zhong)，推(tui)動能源結構綠(lv)色低(di)碳轉(zhuan)型。

（二）扎實做好電力供需平衡工作，確保電力安全穩定供應

建(jian)議根據電力供需趨緊形(xing)勢，加快系統(tong)調峰能力建(jian)設,加強需求側管(guan)理,進一步完善市場機(ji)制調動火電機(ji)組靈活性改(gai)造積(ji)極性。

一是(shi)盡快將具備投(tou)產(chan)條件的應(ying)急(ji)儲備電(dian)源(yuan)納入投(tou)產(chan)計劃(hua)，確保具備條件的電(dian)廠在(zai)迎峰度(du)夏(xia)期間發揮作用(yong)。

二(er)是推動(dong)煤(mei)炭優(you)質產能(neng)釋放，合理安排(pai)運力，對煤(mei)炭供應(ying)(ying)不足和運力受制約區域(yu)，在鐵路運力配置上予以傾(qing)斜；加快(kuai)進(jin)口煤(mei)通(tong)關速度(du)，保(bao)障發電燃料穩定供應(ying)(ying)。

三(san)是盡快研究(jiu)出臺容量電價，建(jian)立容量市場和輔(fu)助服(fu)務市場，進一步理順(shun)煤電價格形成機(ji)制(zhi)，調動火電靈活性改造運(yun)行積極性，提高電網頂峰發電能力。

四是加強需(xu)求側管理，擴大峰(feng)(feng)(feng)谷(gu)電(dian)價執行范圍，確(que)定(ding)科學合理的峰(feng)(feng)(feng)谷(gu)分時(shi)電(dian)價比，按最大供需(xu)缺(que)口(kou)制定(ding)落實有序用電(dian)措施，引導用戶錯峰(feng)(feng)(feng)用電(dian)，實現(xian)削峰(feng)(feng)(feng)填谷(gu)、移峰(feng)(feng)(feng)平谷(gu)，全力滿足用電(dian)需(xu)求。

五是(shi)加(jia)快現有(you)特高壓輸(shu)送通道的(de)配(pei)套電(dian)源建設，合(he)理布局保障性發電(dian)機(ji)組，緩解東(dong)中部(bu)地區的(de)電(dian)力硬缺口(kou)。

六是加快抽水蓄能(neng)(neng)、燃氣、儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)等調峰(feng)電站建設，提升(sheng)電力系統(tong)削峰(feng)填谷和平衡(heng)調節能(neng)(neng)力。

（三）高度重視電力企業經營困難，維護行業可持續發展能力

重視電(dian)網、煤電(dian)及新能(neng)源企(qi)業(ye)經營困難(nan)，高度關注(zhu)近(jin)期(qi)火電(dian)廠破產清算問題，建議做好(hao)價(jia)格形成(cheng)機(ji)制、電(dian)煤中長期(qi)合同價(jia)格及履約監(jian)管、新能(neng)源補貼(tie)發(fa)放等工作。

一是(shi)合理核定(ding)第二個監管(guan)周(zhou)期輸配(pei)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)水平，建立健(jian)全保障電(dian)(dian)網持續發(fa)展的輸配(pei)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)機制，統(tong)籌(chou)解決電(dian)(dian)網投資(zi)建設、電(dian)(dian)價(jia)交叉補(bu)貼、東西部幫扶等問(wen)題(ti)，支撐電(dian)(dian)網健(jian)康可持續發(fa)展。

二是加(jia)強電(dian)煤(mei)中(zhong)長期(qi)合(he)同監(jian)管確(que)保履約，完(wan)善(shan)價格(ge)條(tiao)款，明確(que)年度長協(xie)定價機制，嚴(yan)禁以月(yue)度長協(xie)、外購長協(xie)等捆綁年度長協(xie)變相漲價；保持進口煤(mei)政策(ce)連續性，引導(dao)市場合(he)理(li)預(yu)期(qi)，控制電(dian)煤(mei)價格(ge)在合(he)理(li)區間，緩解煤(mei)電(dian)企業經(jing)營困境(jing)。

三是盡快推進電煤(mei)中長(chang)協合(he)同含稅基準價調整(zheng)及價格(ge)區間，協調煤(mei)炭生產企業相應調整(zheng)電煤(mei)價格(ge)，推動降稅紅利有效傳(chuan)導(dao)至(zhi)終端用(yong)戶。

四是適(shi)度增(zeng)加對火(huo)電企(qi)(qi)業的信貸支持力度，確保(bao)落(luo)實存量接續，避免火(huo)電企(qi)(qi)業虧損面(mian)持續擴大，形(xing)成破產清算潮。

五是按約定加快(kuai)可再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)補貼目(mu)錄公布和補貼資(zi)金發放(fang)，盡快(kuai)解(jie)決巨額拖(tuo)欠問題，緩解(jie)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)經營(ying)和資(zi)金壓力；開(kai)發針對風電、光(guang)伏(fu)等(deng)清潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)項目(mu)的融資(zi)品種，將應(ying)收補貼款(kuan)納入流貸支持范圍，解(jie)決全(quan)行業(ye)(ye)補貼資(zi)金缺口(kou)；實施促(cu)進(jin)可再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)等(deng)清潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發展的綠色信貸政策。