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2019年全國銷售電量市場化率或將突破40%
發布者:lzx | 來源:中國電力新聞網 | 0評論 | 4837查看 | 2019-04-04 09:54:47    

“推進電(dian)(dian)力市(shi)場(chang)化交(jiao)易是一個系(xi)統工程,目前(qian)還處于市(shi)場(chang)形(xing)成的初級階段,不能僅以市(shi)場(chang)交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的絕對值(zhi)和(he)(he)增速反(fan)映新一輪電(dian)(dian)改(gai)的成效,而應綜合考慮市(shi)場(chang)機制建設和(he)(he)經濟運行成本等問題,穩步(bu)提高市(shi)場(chang)交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)在全社會用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)和(he)(he)銷售(shou)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)中的占比。”中國電(dian)(dian)力企業聯合會(以下簡稱(cheng)“中電(dian)(dian)聯”)行業發(fa)展與環境資源(yuan)部副主任薛(xue)靜日前(qian)在接受記者(zhe)專訪時(shi)表示。


機制完善仍是電力市場建設重點


近期,中(zhong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯(lian)發(fa)(fa)布(bu)《2018年(nian)4季度全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)場交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)信息分析》顯(xian)示,2018年(nian)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)場交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(含發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)權交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)、不含抽水蓄能(neng)低谷抽水交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)等特殊交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang))合計為(wei)20654億千瓦時,同(tong)比(bi)增長26.5%,市(shi)場交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占全(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)30.2%,較上(shang)(shang)年(nian)提高(gao)4.3個百分點,市(shi)場交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網企業銷售電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)37.1%,較上(shang)(shang)年(nian)提高(gao)3.6個百分點。“市(shi)場交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占比(bi)的(de)提高(gao)反(fan)映了電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行業在供給側結構(gou)性改革中(zhong)做出的(de)貢獻”,薛(xue)靜指(zhi)出。


“深(shen)化(hua)電(dian)(dian)力市(shi)場(chang)(chang)建設的目標是要把(ba)電(dian)(dian)力生產(chan)、供應、銷售(shou)、消費全產(chan)業的經濟(ji)要素、技術創新(xin)、能(neng)源轉型集(ji)合(he)起來(lai),以市(shi)場(chang)(chang)優化(hua)配(pei)置手段,實現(xian)能(neng)源電(dian)(dian)力綠色、高效、經濟(ji)的高質(zhi)量發(fa)展,為(wei)全社會提供優質(zhi)、低價供電(dian)(dian)服務。通過市(shi)場(chang)(chang)交(jiao)易(yi)(yi),培(pei)育電(dian)(dian)力市(shi)場(chang)(chang)主體;提高交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)頻度、增加交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)品種(zhong)和交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)規模(mo),為(wei)了活躍市(shi)場(chang)(chang)、發(fa)現(xian)價格(ge),不(bu)斷完善(shan)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)規則,所以不(bu)能(neng)簡單地把(ba)擴大(da)規模(mo)作(zuo)為(wei)成就,關鍵(jian)是把(ba)電(dian)(dian)力市(shi)場(chang)(chang)配(pei)套的各(ge)種(zhong)機制建立起來(lai),促進電(dian)(dian)力市(shi)場(chang)(chang)健(jian)康穩定發(fa)展”,薛靜認為(wei)。目前,由(you)于機制建設有待完善(shan),市(shi)場(chang)(chang)交(jiao)易(yi)(yi)電(dian)(dian)量的增長還遠(yuan)未進入穩定階段,偶(ou)然(ran)因素都可能(neng)引發(fa)相關數據的大(da)幅波動(dong)。


以煤電(dian)為(wei)例。煤電(dian)是(shi)我國的(de)(de)主力電(dian)源,還承(cheng)擔著重要的(de)(de)調(diao)峰作用,一些地(di)區為(wei)了適應接收新能源的(de)(de)不(bu)穩定(ding)性(xing),需要投入大量(liang)成本建設調(diao)節(jie)電(dian)源或進行煤電(dian)機(ji)組靈活性(xing)改造。在(zai)電(dian)煤價(jia)格較高和輔助服務市(shi)場價(jia)格補償(chang)有(you)限的(de)(de)情(qing)況下,以本地(di)煤電(dian)機(ji)組低負荷調(diao)節(jie)為(wei)代價(jia)增加跨省(sheng)跨區輸送電(dian)量(liang)的(de)(de)經(jing)濟(ji)補償(chang)幅度,需要從跨區跨省(sheng)交(jiao)易的(de)(de)系統經(jing)濟(ji)性(xing)去考(kao)量(liang)確定(ding)。


“因此(ci),我不(bu)贊同煤(mei)電的(de)(de)(de)市場(chang)(chang)化率快速提高到(dao)峰值,還(huan)應(ying)強調穩(wen)步(bu)過渡,各地(di)因地(di)制(zhi)宜”。薛靜(jing)建議,一方(fang)面(mian),煤(mei)電可(ke)以與煤(mei)炭交易(yi)(yi)周期(qi)聯動(dong)(dong),通過年度中長期(qi)交易(yi)(yi)鎖(suo)定價格,保持市場(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)相(xiang)對穩(wen)定;另一方(fang)面(mian),按照季度、月、周的(de)(de)(de)中長期(qi)交易(yi)(yi)進行補充,在此(ci)基礎上結(jie)合現貨(huo)交易(yi)(yi),不(bu)斷趨(qu)近于市場(chang)(chang)變(bian)(bian)動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)需求,實現市場(chang)(chang)穩(wen)定與變(bian)(bian)動(dong)(dong)的(de)(de)(de)平衡。有(you)些地(di)區峰谷差變(bian)(bian)動(dong)(dong)很大(da),波(bo)動(dong)(dong)性的(de)(de)(de)新(xin)能源比重較高,現貨(huo)交易(yi)(yi)可(ke)以試點或者(zhe)適度開展起來(lai),有(you)些省(sheng)高耗能用(yong)電比重很高,負荷平穩(wen),可(ke)以緩一步(bu)搞(gao)現貨(huo),先把電力市場(chang)(chang)供需雙方(fang)的(de)(de)(de)市場(chang)(chang)體系逐步(bu)完善起來(lai)。


分布式發電市場交易有望成為突破口


據了(le)解(jie),2018年我(wo)國清(qing)潔能(neng)源(yuan)消納形勢持續向好,風電(dian)、光伏、水能(neng)利用率分(fen)別達92.8%、97.0%和95.0%以上(shang)。各(ge)省(sheng)在設(she)置新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)保障(zhang)性(xing)收購(gou)小時(shi)數的基礎上(shang),鼓(gu)勵新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)參(can)與電(dian)力市場交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi),北京(jing)交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)中心也(ye)積極(ji)創新(xin)(xin)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)跨(kua)區交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi),特別是替代發(fa)電(dian)交(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)取得了(le)進展,為減少棄風棄電(dian)成效顯著,但是新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)出力的預測(ce)、調節、經濟(ji)性(xing)、技術等(deng)方(fang)面(mian)還存在著瓶頸(jing),各(ge)方(fang)尚需進一步努(nu)力。


薛靜(jing)指(zhi)出,分布式發電(dian)市場(chang)交易或(huo)將成為完(wan)善電(dian)力市場(chang)化(hua)建設的(de)(de)一個突破口,同時也是實現國家電(dian)網公司(si)具體(ti)實踐泛在電(dian)力物聯網的(de)(de)有效平臺(tai)。


泛在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)物(wu)聯網的(de)(de)根(gen)本是(shi)營造(zao)以電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)為核心的(de)(de)共享平臺(tai)生態系統,為各(ge)類電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)相關市場主(zhu)體提(ti)供(gong)服(fu)務(wu)。分(fen)布(bu)式(shi)微網就是(shi)在(zai)在(zai)大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網末端實(shi)現(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應(ying)與(yu)消(xiao)費的(de)(de)“即(ji)插即(ji)用(yong)”,“即(ji)插即(ji)用(yong)”的(de)(de)技術、服(fu)務(wu)、交易需要一個健(jian)康的(de)(de)相互促(cu)進(jin)(jin)與(yu)制約的(de)(de)生態,基層供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)單位如何改變過去的(de)(de)工(gong)作理(li)念,形成(cheng)維(wei)護生態的(de)(de)服(fu)務(wu)理(li)念與(yu)服(fu)務(wu)能力(li),自(zi)下而(er)上地促(cu)進(jin)(jin)泛在(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)物(wu)聯網的(de)(de)建(jian)成(cheng),而(er)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網公司自(zi)上而(er)下的(de)(de)任務(wu)是(shi)標(biao)準(zhun)建(jian)設、文(wen)化建(jian)設、技術研發、人(ren)才培養、管理(li)機制創新。


“今年市場(chang)交易(yi)電量應該在(zai)保持(chi)去年比(bi)重的基礎上(shang)(shang)進一(yi)步擴大,保守估計(ji)市場(chang)交易(yi)電量占全社會用(yong)電量比(bi)重將在(zai)30%以(yi)上(shang)(shang)繼續增長,占電網(wang)企業銷售電量比(bi)重將突破(po)40%”,薛靜預(yu)測,“2019年全社會用(yong)電量的增速預(yu)計(ji)低于(yu)上(shang)(shang)年,因此計(ji)劃電量的盤子較上(shang)(shang)年會小,煤電空間會更小,剩余發(fa)電資源將更多(duo)進入(ru)市場(chang),導致(zhi)市場(chang)交易(yi)電量特別是(shi)煤電市場(chang)化率會提(ti)高。”


分電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源類型看(kan),煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)新增(zeng)裝機近幾(ji)年(nian)預(yu)計(ji)(ji)會(hui)保持平穩;2019年(nian)新增(zeng)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機預(yu)計(ji)(ji)較上年(nian)有所增(zeng)加;上年(nian)光伏(fu)新增(zeng)裝機創歷史新高,需要在今年(nian)消化(hua)為(wei)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)力,因(yin)此2019年(nian)光伏(fu)和風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)市(shi)場交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)預(yu)計(ji)(ji)持續增(zeng)長;目(mu)前沿海地區(qu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)來水(shui)較好,南方地區(qu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)流域儲能(neng)值同比增(zeng)加不(bu)少(shao),水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)市(shi)場交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的增(zeng)長會(hui)擠壓煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)空間。


此外,薛靜表示(shi),2019年(nian)煤炭(tan)、鋼鐵(tie)、有色(se)金屬和建材(cai)四大行業(ye)企(qi)業(ye)全面(mian)進入(ru)電(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)場,與發電(dian)(dian)企(qi)業(ye)開(kai)展電(dian)(dian)力(li)直接交易(yi),也將促進市(shi)場交易(yi)電(dian)(dian)量的增長。

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