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深度丨歐陽昌裕:關于構建新型電力系統的戰略思考
發布者:Catherine | 來源:電聯新媒 | 0評論 | 569查看 | 2025-09-18 11:14:12    

2021年3月15日,習近平總書記首次創造性提出要構建以新能源為主體的新型電力系統。2023年7月11日,習近平總書記明確指出新型電力系統具有清潔低碳、安全充裕、經濟高效、供需協同、靈活智能五方面特征。通俗理解,清潔低碳就是推動形成以綠色為底色、以電為中心的能源供給和消費體系;安全充裕就是推動新型電力系統綜合安全防御體系構建,提升電力先行保障和服務能力;經濟高效就是提升電力系統整體運行效率,推動更經濟、更可持續的能源轉型;供需協同就是激發供需兩端協同響應潛力,實現高質量的供需動態平衡;靈活智能則是促進能量流、信息流、碳流、價值流深度融合,提升電力系統韌性,提高能源利用效率和電碳協同能力。


當前(qian),能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)綠色(se)低(di)碳轉(zhuan)型(xing)加(jia)速推進,呈現(xian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力化、電(dian)(dian)(dian)力能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)化和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力綜(zong)合化趨勢。規劃建(jian)設(she)新(xin)型(xing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)體系(xi)(xi)、構(gou)建(jian)新(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統和(he)建(jian)設(she)新(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)是(shi)(shi)實施能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安全(quan)(quan)新(xin)戰(zhan)略(lve)(lve)的(de)(de)具(ju)體路徑(jing),新(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統是(shi)(shi)新(xin)型(xing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)體系(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)關鍵支(zhi)撐和(he)中心(xin)環(huan)節(jie),新(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)則是(shi)(shi)樞(shu)紐平臺和(he)核心(xin)環(huan)節(jie)。“十五五”是(shi)(shi)構(gou)建(jian)新(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統的(de)(de)關鍵時期,如何更(geng)加(jia)有效地發(fa)揮電(dian)(dian)(dian)力行(xing)業在國(guo)民經(jing)濟中的(de)(de)基(ji)礎和(he)先(xian)導作(zuo)用(yong)(yong),有力地支(zhi)撐國(guo)家重大發(fa)展(zhan)戰(zhan)略(lve)(lve)和(he)目標的(de)(de)實現(xian),更(geng)好地滿足人民群眾日(ri)益增長的(de)(de)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)求,實現(xian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力安全(quan)(quan)供應、綠色(se)低(di)碳轉(zhuan)型(xing)和(he)全(quan)(quan)國(guo)統一電(dian)(dian)(dian)力市場建(jian)設(she),是(shi)(shi)“十五五”能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力面臨的(de)(de)核心(xin)任務和(he)艱巨挑戰(zhan)。


電力工業進入新發展階段


電力(li)工業已(yi)經邁入具有“五高”特征和未來十年用電量(liang)仍可能保持“中(zhong)速”增長的新發展階段(duan)。


“五(wu)高(gao)”主(zhu)要體(ti)(ti)(ti)現在(zai):一是高(gao)比例新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源。新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源發展(zhan)總體(ti)(ti)(ti)上(shang)進(jin)入成(cheng)熟、規范(fan)的高(gao)質量發展(zhan)新階段。新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)比重(zhong)加(jia)速提升(sheng),已(yi)經成(cheng)為發電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(ti)電(dian)(dian)源,截至2024年底,全國新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容(rong)量達14億(yi)千瓦,占總發電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容(rong)量的42.0%,新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)量1.8萬億(yi)千瓦時(shi),占總發電(dian)(dian)量的18.5%。新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本大幅(fu)度下降,本體(ti)(ti)(ti)發電(dian)(dian)平價入網,但(dan)是本體(ti)(ti)(ti)外(wai)成(cheng)本則溢出轉(zhuan)移至電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統、持(chi)續產(chan)生巨大的系統成(cheng)本。新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源投資收益(yi)率加(jia)快下降、高(gao)回報時(shi)代已(yi)經結束。高(gao)比例新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源因隨機(ji)性(xing)、間歇性(xing)和波動(dong)性(xing)帶(dai)來(lai)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統高(gao)不確定性(xing)。


二(er)是高比例新市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)。受新能(neng)(neng)源技術、市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)化和以綠色化、數字化、智能(neng)(neng)化為核心的(de)科技革命(ming)所(suo)驅(qu)動(dong),新型電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)形(xing)態發(fa)(fa)生根本性(xing)變化,加快出現新型市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti):一(yi)是“小(xiao)”“微”市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)即小(xiao)容量、微電(dian)(dian)網(wang)大規模出現,將與現代大機(ji)(ji)(ji)組大電(dian)(dian)網(wang)并(bing)駕齊驅(qu);二(er)是離網(wang)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)隨(sui)機(ji)(ji)(ji)并(bing)入(ru)或離開電(dian)(dian)網(wang),隨(sui)機(ji)(ji)(ji)參與或離開電(dian)(dian)力市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang);三是移(yi)動(dong)性(xing)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti),大量隨(sui)機(ji)(ji)(ji)涌入(ru)電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong);四(si)是聚(ju)合市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(如(ru)虛擬電(dian)(dian)廠(chang)、產(chan)消一(yi)體(ti)(ti)化等),大量隨(sui)機(ji)(ji)(ji)涌入(ru)電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong);五是多(duo)能(neng)(neng)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)(如(ru)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽(qi)車(che)等)大量隨(sui)機(ji)(ji)(ji)涌入(ru)電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)。電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)各類市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)從(cong)全面入(ru)網(wang)進一(yi)步(bu)發(fa)(fa)展為全面進入(ru)電(dian)(dian)力市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang),使得電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)呈現出“不(bu)確定(ding)(ding)電(dian)(dian)源+不(bu)確定(ding)(ding)用戶+低慣量系(xi)統(tong)”的(de)復合特(te)征(zheng),系(xi)統(tong)運(yun)行(xing)的(de)不(bu)確定(ding)(ding)性(xing)顯著增加,對電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量平衡和安(an)全穩(wen)定(ding)(ding)控制提出更高要(yao)求。同時(shi),市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)主(zhu)(zhu)體(ti)(ti)多(duo)元(yuan)化必(bi)然產(chan)生利(li)益(yi)多(duo)元(yuan)化,在(zai)不(bu)確定(ding)(ding)性(xing)電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)背景下(xia)必(bi)然要(yao)求構建與之(zhi)相匹配的(de)現代電(dian)(dian)力治理體(ti)(ti)系(xi)。


三是高比例電(dian)力電(dian)子(zi)設備。隨著大(da)規模新能源發電(dian)、高壓(ya)直流輸(shu)電(dian)、大(da)功(gong)率直流負荷等的快速(su)發展,電(dian)力系統(tong)“源—網—荷”各部分電(dian)力電(dian)子(zi)化程度逐(zhu)年提高,電(dian)力系統(tong)慣(guan)量(liang)加速(su)降低,給安全穩定運行帶來極大(da)困難。


四是(shi)高概率極(ji)端氣候氣象。極(ji)端氣候氣象天氣頻發成為常(chang)態,無論對(dui)電(dian)力供應,還是(shi)對(dui)用電(dian)負荷,都帶來(lai)越來(lai)越高的不確定性。


五是高活躍創(chuang)新(xin)。各領域(yu)大(da)量(liang)(liang)科(ke)技(ji)創(chuang)新(xin)方(fang)(fang)向不斷(duan)涌現(xian),新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)主(zhu)動支(zhi)撐技(ji)術、CCUS、長(chang)時儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的利用與制儲運技(ji)術成為(wei)創(chuang)新(xin)熱點(dian)。綜合能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、虛(xu)擬(ni)電廠、負荷聚合商(shang)、智慧(hui)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、碳(tan)循環(huan)經濟(ji)等大(da)量(liang)(liang)新(xin)業態、新(xin)模式方(fang)(fang)興(xing)未艾(ai)。這種高活躍的創(chuang)新(xin)態勢,對電力系統的整體(ti)性謀劃與一體(ti)化(hua)設計提出了更高要求。


我國(guo)未來十(shi)(shi)(shi)年(nian)全(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)仍可能維持“中(zhong)速(su)(su)”增長(chang)。初步預計,2030年(nian)、2035年(nian)全(quan)國(guo)全(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)將達(da)到12.8萬(wan)(wan)億~14.0萬(wan)(wan)億千瓦(wa)時(shi)、15.5萬(wan)(wan)億~17.6萬(wan)(wan)億千瓦(wa)時(shi)。對應(ying)“十(shi)(shi)(shi)五五”和“十(shi)(shi)(shi)六五”時(shi)期,用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)年(nian)均(jun)增速(su)(su)預計分(fen)(fen)(fen)別為(wei)4.5%~6.3%、3.8%~4.7%。基準情景下(xia),2030年(nian)、2035年(nian)用(yong)(yong)電量(liang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別為(wei)13.5萬(wan)(wan)億、16.7萬(wan)(wan)億千瓦(wa)時(shi),對應(ying)“十(shi)(shi)(shi)五五”“十(shi)(shi)(shi)六五”年(nian)均(jun)增速(su)(su)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別為(wei)5.6%、4.3%,電力彈性系數分(fen)(fen)(fen)別為(wei)1.2、1.0。


電力(li)(li)工業(ye)在新(xin)發(fa)展階(jie)段(duan)將(jiang)面臨六(liu)大(da)嚴峻挑戰。一是越來越大(da)的不確(que)定(ding)性(xing)。新(xin)能源出力(li)(li)隨機(ji)波動、負荷需求多(duo)變(bian)難(nan)測、極(ji)端天氣常(chang)態(tai)出現等多(duo)重(zhong)不確(que)定(ding)性(xing)疊加,傳統(tong)“預(yu)測-落實(shi)”規劃范(fan)式難(nan)以適應(ying)。如何將(jiang)不確(que)定(ding)性(xing)電力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)轉變(bian)為可預(yu)測性(xing)電力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong),已成為新(xin)型電力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)建設中亟(ji)待解決的重(zhong)要(yao)問題。


二是越(yue)來越(yue)困難的(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)平(ping)(ping)(ping)衡。新能(neng)源高(gao)比例接入后,電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)需平(ping)(ping)(ping)衡從“電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)平(ping)(ping)(ping)衡”或(huo)“電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)平(ping)(ping)(ping)衡”為主轉向“電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)+容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)”雙重(zhong)平(ping)(ping)(ping)衡,夏季(ji)(ji)、冬(dong)季(ji)(ji)“雙高(gao)峰”特征顯著,日峰谷差率長期(qi)維持高(gao)位,調(diao)(diao)峰調(diao)(diao)頻(pin)(pin)壓力(li)(li)持續增大。在此(ci)背景下,如何(he)構建科學的(de)有效容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)體系(xi)、完善的(de)戰略(lve)備用體系(xi)及充足(zu)的(de)靈(ling)活調(diao)(diao)節能(neng)力(li)(li)體系(xi),就成為亟待破(po)解的(de)關鍵(jian)問題(ti)。同時(shi),受全球氣(qi)候變化影響,極(ji)端天氣(qi)事件呈現頻(pin)(pin)發態勢(shi),進一步加(jia)劇了電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)平(ping)(ping)(ping)衡的(de)復(fu)雜性與嚴峻性。


三是越來越嚴峻的(de)(de)電(dian)力(li)(li)安(an)(an)全(quan)。在國家能源安(an)(an)全(quan)新(xin)戰略(lve)下構建新(xin)型能源體系(xi)(xi)(xi),其(qi)能源安(an)(an)全(quan)的(de)(de)重(zhong)心(xin)從傳(chuan)統(tong)的(de)(de)油氣(qi)安(an)(an)全(quan)為(wei)主向電(dian)力(li)(li)安(an)(an)全(quan)轉移,呈現出(chu)傳(chuan)統(tong)的(de)(de)油氣(qi)安(an)(an)全(quan)和電(dian)力(li)(li)安(an)(an)全(quan)并重(zhong)的(de)(de)整體態勢,更長遠可能演變為(wei)以電(dian)力(li)(li)安(an)(an)全(quan)為(wei)主的(de)(de)新(xin)格局。電(dian)力(li)(li)安(an)(an)全(quan)呈現出(chu)利益多元化(hua)、系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)慣量小、供(gong)需平衡難和氣(qi)象(xiang)屬性增強(qiang)等新(xin)特點。電(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)運行特性發(fa)生重(zhong)大變化(hua),如何保障電(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)安(an)(an)全(quan)穩定的(de)(de)問題日益突出(chu)。


四(si)是越來越多元的(de)(de)利益(yi)主體(ti)。在電力轉型過程中,源網(wang)(wang)荷(he)儲各環節互(hu)動增多,多能(neng)互(hu)補、共享儲能(neng)、負荷(he)聚(ju)合商、虛擬電廠、微電網(wang)(wang)等新(xin)市(shi)場(chang)主體(ti)大量涌(yong)現。各類(lei)主體(ti)利益(yi)訴求差異顯著,如何加快(kuai)構建與新(xin)型電力系統(tong)相適配的(de)(de)現代電力治(zhi)理體(ti)系,成(cheng)為破(po)解問題的(de)(de)關鍵命題。


五是越(yue)來越(yue)巨額的(de)系統成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)。新能源占比(bi)提(ti)升(sheng)需要電力系統增加(jia)靈活(huo)(huo)調節資源和(he)增加(jia)電網(wang)投(tou)資,相應增加(jia)了常規電源、靈活(huo)(huo)性資源、電網(wang)等主體(ti)的(de)投(tou)資和(he)運行成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben),系統成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)快速上升(sheng),如何(he)加(jia)快制定合(he)理(li)的(de)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)疏導(dao)機(ji)制顯得尤為(wei)重要。


六是(shi)越來(lai)越艱巨(ju)的碳達峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)。電力(li)系統既要(yao)承接(jie)非(fei)電行(xing)業(ye)通過“電力(li)替代”實現碳達峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)所帶來(lai)的轉(zhuan)型壓力(li),又要(yao)完成自身的碳達峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)目標。電力(li)需求(qiu)增長(chang)快(kuai)慢是(shi)影響電力(li)行(xing)業(ye)碳達峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)時間的核心因素。在(zai)全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)電量(liang)“中速”增長(chang)和確保安全(quan)(quan)(quan)供電的背景(jing)下,非(fei)化石能(neng)源新增發電量(liang)能(neng)否滿足新增用(yong)電需求(qiu),將直接(jie)關系到電力(li)行(xing)業(ye)何時碳達峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)。在(zai)全(quan)(quan)(quan)社會如(ru)(ru)期實現碳達峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)的剛性(xing)約束下,如(ru)(ru)何選擇對經(jing)濟(ji)社會發展更為有利(li)的達峰(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)路徑,就成為電力(li)行(xing)業(ye)低碳轉(zhuan)型中必須破解的關鍵(jian)課題。


構建新型電力系統


要著力攻克三大核心問題


化解(jie)六大嚴峻(jun)挑戰,為電力(li)系統(tong)重塑和模式變革帶來了巨(ju)大的發(fa)展機遇和廣闊的市(shi)場(chang)空間。當前(qian)亟需(xu)系統(tong)謀劃、精準發(fa)力(li),著力(li)破(po)解(jie)三(san)大核(he)心問(wen)題(ti)。


第(di)一大(da)核心(xin)問題(ti),就是確保安(an)全(quan)供電(dian)(dian)。構(gou)建新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統要始終堅持(chi)以(yi)人民為中心(xin)的(de)(de)發展思想,統籌發展和(he)安(an)全(quan),切實履行(xing)黨中央賦予電(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)業的(de)(de)戰(zhan)略使命,以(yi)電(dian)(dian)力(li)保供為前提(ti),決不允許發生大(da)面積“拉閘限電(dian)(dian)”。如何應(ying)對越(yue)來(lai)越(yue)嚴峻的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)安(an)全(quan)和(he)電(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)平衡挑戰(zhan)是構(gou)建新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統的(de)(de)基礎(chu)和(he)前提(ti)。要解決這一核心(xin)問題(ti),需要重點(dian)解決三大(da)難題(ti)。


一(yi)是要確保(bao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)1的(de)合(he)理(li)充(chong)(chong)裕(yu)度(du)。近年(nian)來,發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)不及負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)速度(du),系統有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)充(chong)(chong)裕(yu)度(du)趨緊。需(xu)求方(fang)面(mian),全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)遠超預期(qi),且受溫控負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)影響,電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)夏、冬季負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)尖峰趨勢凸顯(xian)。供(gong)應方(fang)面(mian),基(ji)礎保(bao)障(zhang)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)建(jian)設不足(zu);新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)已成(cheng)為(wei)新增(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)機主體(ti),新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)頂峰保(bao)供(gong)作用(yong)非常有(you)(you)(you)限(xian)、有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)率非常低(di)。“十四五”以來,全(quan)國最大負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)年(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)超過9300萬千瓦(wa),而有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)年(nian)均增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)僅為(wei)5300萬千瓦(wa)。經研判(pan),系統有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)與最大負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷(he)的(de)比值(zhi)在全(quan)國層面(mian)需(xu)要達(da)到1.18~1.2才(cai)能(neng)有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)保(bao)障(zhang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力平衡。確保(bao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統有(you)(you)(you)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)合(he)理(li)充(chong)(chong)裕(yu)度(du),必須立足(zu)我(wo)國能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)稟賦,優化各類(lei)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)功能(neng)定位,推動技術進(jin)步(bu),實現(xian)協(xie)同(tong)發(fa)展(zhan)。新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)穩步(bu)從發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機為(wei)主體(ti)轉(zhuan)變成(cheng)為(wei)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)為(wei)主體(ti),燃(ran)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)從主體(ti)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)向調(diao)節性、支撐性、戰略(lve)性備(bei)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)變,天然(ran)氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)由(you)(you)調(diao)峰為(wei)主向在部分(fen)地區發(fa)揮電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)雙重保(bao)障(zhang)作用(yong)轉(zhuan)型(xing)(xing),核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)由(you)(you)提供(gong)基(ji)荷(he)向兼顧(gu)發(fa)揮調(diao)峰作用(yong)轉(zhuan)型(xing)(xing),水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)由(you)(you)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)供(gong)應為(wei)主向電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)供(gong)應與靈活調(diao)節并重轉(zhuan)型(xing)(xing)。


二是要確保(bao)靈活調(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)能(neng)力(li)的(de)(de)合(he)理充裕度(du)。隨著源(yuan)荷(he)兩(liang)側(ce)波(bo)動(dong)(dong)持續疊(die)加,電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統調(diao)(diao)(diao)峰需(xu)求發生深刻變(bian)化,呈現(xian)需(xu)求規(gui)模(mo)持續擴大(da)(da)、需(xu)求類型(xing)逐(zhu)漸(jian)多(duo)(duo)(duo)元、區域需(xu)求差異(yi)明顯等特(te)征(zheng)。在(zai)此形勢(shi)下,電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統調(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)能(neng)力(li)面臨傳統調(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)逐(zhu)漸(jian)緊缺(que)、增量(liang)新(xin)型(xing)調(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)成本高(gao)、長周(zhou)期調(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)手段(duan)缺(que)乏等挑戰。“十五五”期間(jian),需(xu)要多(duo)(duo)(duo)措并(bing)舉確保(bao)靈活調(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)能(neng)力(li)的(de)(de)合(he)理充裕度(du)。推(tui)(tui)動(dong)(dong)煤電(dian)靈活性(xing)改造(zao)以及深調(diao)(diao)(diao)改造(zao)、煤電(dian)增配新(xin)型(xing)儲能(neng)等技改,來適應(ying)源(yuan)荷(he)兩(liang)端波(bo)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)更大(da)(da)程度(du)疊(die)加場景。電(dian)源(yuan)側(ce)加大(da)(da)存量(liang)挖潛與增量(liang)優配,電(dian)網側(ce)夯(hang)實物理網架及互濟條件,負荷(he)側(ce)持續推(tui)(tui)動(dong)(dong)資(zi)源(yuan)參(can)與系(xi)統調(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie),以及推(tui)(tui)動(dong)(dong)分布式儲能(neng)資(zi)源(yuan)更大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)應(ying)用。統籌考慮優化組合(he)多(duo)(duo)(duo)類型(xing)調(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)資(zi)源(yuan),避(bi)免單(dan)一資(zi)源(yuan)飽和效(xiao)應(ying)。有效(xiao)推(tui)(tui)動(dong)(dong)多(duo)(duo)(duo)時間(jian)尺(chi)度(du)調(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)建設,實現(xian)調(diao)(diao)(diao)節(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)供給充裕、結構合(he)理、響應(ying)高(gao)效(xiao)的(de)(de)目(mu)標。


三是(shi)要始終(zhong)(zhong)堅持電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)(tong)統(tong)(tong)一調度(du)。在(zai)電(dian)力(li)轉型過(guo)程中,源網荷儲各環(huan)節互動增(zeng)多(duo),多(duo)能互補(bu)、共享儲能、負荷聚合商、虛擬電(dian)廠、微電(dian)網等新市場主體大量涌現,利益關(guan)系錯(cuo)綜復雜,要始終(zhong)(zhong)堅持統(tong)(tong)一規劃、統(tong)(tong)一調度(du)、統(tong)(tong)一管理,充(chong)分發揮統(tong)(tong)一調度(du)對電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)(tong)運行(xing)的統(tong)(tong)籌(chou)協調作用,助力(li)清潔能源高效(xiao)利用,保(bao)障(zhang)電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)(tong)安全穩定(ding)運行(xing)。


第二大核心問題(ti),就是加快綠色低碳轉型。電力(li)綠色低碳轉型是支(zhi)撐全(quan)社會實現“雙(shuang)碳”目(mu)標的關鍵,高質(zhi)量大力(li)發展新能源是重要手段。目(mu)前(qian)需要著力(li)解決三大難題(ti)。


一(yi)(yi)是要高(gao)度(du)重(zhong)視新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)、結(jie)(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)、布(bu)局(ju)的(de)(de)(de)(de)優(you)(you)化,著(zhu)力提(ti)(ti)高(gao)有效容量(liang)率(lv)和(he)(he)構(gou)(gou)(gou)網友(you)好(hao)性(xing)(xing)。在(zai)政策支(zhi)持(chi)(chi)(chi)和(he)(he)市(shi)場(chang)需(xu)求(qiu)雙重(zhong)驅動(dong)(dong)下,“十(shi)五五”期間新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)年均(jun)增(zeng)(zeng)長在(zai)2億千(qian)瓦以(yi)上,并成(cheng)為新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)供應主力,逐(zhu)步(bu)承(cheng)擔起主體電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)安全(quan)責任(ren)(ren)。因(yin)此,新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)更需(xu)要加(jia)(jia)快提(ti)(ti)高(gao)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)質量(liang),分區域(yu)分階(jie)段(duan)確定(ding)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)合(he)理(li)利(li)(li)用率(lv)。一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian),依托棄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)特(te)征有效引(yin)導(dao)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)節奏,推(tui)動(dong)(dong)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)與(yu)(yu)(yu)結(jie)(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)協同優(you)(you)化。結(jie)(jie)(jie)合(he)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消納困難時(shi)段(duan)加(jia)(jia)速向負荷(he)水(shui)平(ping)偏低的(de)(de)(de)(de)春(chun)秋季以(yi)及光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏大(da)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)午(wu)間時(shi)段(duan)集(ji)中的(de)(de)(de)(de)趨勢,引(yin)導(dao)優(you)(you)化新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)并網裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)和(he)(he)結(jie)(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)。現(xian)階(jie)段(duan)“風大(da)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)小(xiao)”省(sheng)區,需(xu)提(ti)(ti)前研究(jiu)(jiu)典型(xing)水(shui)平(ping)年份及過渡年份最(zui)(zui)優(you)(you)風光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)比(bi)(bi),引(yin)導(dao)優(you)(you)化增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)和(he)(he)結(jie)(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou),實(shi)現(xian)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)和(he)(he)利(li)(li)用率(lv)雙提(ti)(ti)升。現(xian)階(jie)段(duan)“風小(xiao)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)大(da)”省(sheng)區,需(xu)準(zhun)確研判后續新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)結(jie)(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)(gou)持(chi)(chi)(chi)續失衡風險,推(tui)動(dong)(dong)分布(bu)式(shi)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏合(he)理(li)配(pei)置儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。另一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian),著(zhu)力優(you)(you)化新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)布(bu)局(ju)。實(shi)行分布(bu)式(shi)開發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)與(yu)(yu)(yu)集(ji)中式(shi)開發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)并重(zhong)。因(yin)地(di)制宜優(you)(you)先鼓(gu)勵發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)“兩自(zi)四化”(即(ji)自(zi)平(ping)衡、自(zi)安全(quan)、小(xiao)微化、綠色(se)化、數智化、共享(xiang)化)自(zi)治(zhi)型(xing)分布(bu)式(shi)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)或智能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)微電(dian)(dian)網。規(gui)劃布(bu)局(ju)沙戈荒(huang)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)基地(di)建設(she),在(zai)“三(san)北”地(di)區優(you)(you)先發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian),積極推(tui)動(dong)(dong)海上風電(dian)(dian)模(mo)(mo)(mo)式(shi)創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)。在(zai)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)富集(ji)區,因(yin)地(di)制宜規(gui)劃布(bu)局(ju)氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、算力等(deng)(deng)戰新(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye),實(shi)現(xian)“西(xi)電(dian)(dian)西(xi)用”和(he)(he)“產(chan)(chan)業(ye)西(xi)移”。第三(san)方(fang)面(mian),著(zhu)力提(ti)(ti)高(gao)有效容量(liang)率(lv)和(he)(he)構(gou)(gou)(gou)網友(you)好(hao)性(xing)(xing),推(tui)動(dong)(dong)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)逐(zhu)步(bu)承(cheng)擔主體電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)安全(quan)責任(ren)(ren)。引(yin)導(dao)風電(dian)(dian)與(yu)(yu)(yu)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏合(he)理(li)配(pei)比(bi)(bi),科學配(pei)置儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。加(jia)(jia)快對已配(pei)置儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)但利(li)(li)用效率(lv)偏低電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)技術改(gai)造(zao),建設(she)具備(bei)高(gao)有效容量(liang)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)系統(tong)友(you)好(hao)型(xing)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)。加(jia)(jia)快提(ti)(ti)高(gao)可預測性(xing)(xing),提(ti)(ti)高(gao)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)有效容量(liang)率(lv);落實(shi)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)調頻(pin)等(deng)(deng)涉網性(xing)(xing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)要求(qiu),提(ti)(ti)升抗擾動(dong)(dong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力標(biao)(biao)準(zhun),加(jia)(jia)快新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)主動(dong)(dong)支(zhi)撐與(yu)(yu)(yu)構(gou)(gou)(gou)網型(xing)技術創(chuang)新(xin)(xin),推(tui)動(dong)(dong)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)具備(bei)與(yu)(yu)(yu)傳統(tong)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)相(xiang)同的(de)(de)(de)(de)穩定(ding)支(zhi)撐能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力;加(jia)(jia)快發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)基于同步(bu)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)(de)(de)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)熱(re)等(deng)(deng)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)技術;加(jia)(jia)快完善分散式(shi)風電(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)分布(bu)式(shi)光(guang)(guang)(guang)(guang)伏接入系統(tong)技術標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)規(gui)范,切實(shi)提(ti)(ti)高(gao)構(gou)(gou)(gou)網性(xing)(xing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。最(zui)(zui)后,持(chi)(chi)(chi)續擴(kuo)大(da)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)非(fei)電(dian)(dian)利(li)(li)用規(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)。持(chi)(chi)(chi)續推(tui)進燃料乙醇、生物柴(chai)油等(deng)(deng)清(qing)潔液(ye)體燃料商業(ye)化應用;開展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)“地(di)熱(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)+”多能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)互補供暖;鼓(gu)勵開展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)地(di)熱(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)與(yu)(yu)(yu)旅(lv)游業(ye)、種植(zhi)養殖業(ye)及工(gong)業(ye)等(deng)(deng)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)綜合(he)利(li)(li)用;加(jia)(jia)強中深層(ceng)地(di)熱(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)制冷研究(jiu)(jiu)。


二是(shi)要(yao)(yao)高度(du)重視電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)及形(xing)(xing)(xing)態(tai)(tai)演變。新(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)路徑(jing)影響源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)荷(he)形(xing)(xing)(xing)態(tai)(tai),進(jin)而決定電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)形(xing)(xing)(xing)態(tai)(tai),電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)形(xing)(xing)(xing)態(tai)(tai)和(he)(he)發(fa)(fa)展重心也(ye)反過(guo)來引(yin)導源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)荷(he)形(xing)(xing)(xing)態(tai)(tai)和(he)(he)發(fa)(fa)展模(mo)式。在轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)過(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong),電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)從以(yi)化(hua)石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)為主(zhu)導向(xiang)(xiang)以(yi)可再生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)為主(zhu)導轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)變,源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)荷(he)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)定位和(he)(he)結構形(xing)(xing)(xing)態(tai)(tai)要(yao)(yao)進(jin)行適應性調整(zheng)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)形(xing)(xing)(xing)態(tai)(tai)由單(dan)向(xiang)(xiang)逐級(ji)輸(shu)配(pei)(pei)(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)為主(zhu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)傳統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang),向(xiang)(xiang)包(bao)括交(jiao)直流混聯大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)、直流電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)、微(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)和(he)(he)可調節負荷(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)互聯網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)變。一(yi)方(fang)面(mian),交(jiao)直流混聯大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)規模(mo)進(jin)一(yi)步擴(kuo)(kuo)大(da)。隨(sui)著大(da)型(xing)清(qing)潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)基地向(xiang)(xiang)負荷(he)中(zhong)心輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)規模(mo)不(bu)斷擴(kuo)(kuo)大(da),要(yao)(yao)不(bu)斷提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)對清(qing)潔(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)范圍優化(hua)配(pei)(pei)(pei)(pei)置水平(ping)。要(yao)(yao)創新(xin)建設柔性雙向(xiang)(xiang)多(duo)(duo)起點多(duo)(duo)落點跨區特高壓網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)絡(luo),以(yi)承擔電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)容量、遠距離輸(shu)送任務,省(sheng)內(nei)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)架承擔區域協調平(ping)衡的(de)(de)(de)(de)重要(yao)(yao)職責(ze)。另一(yi)方(fang)面(mian),多(duo)(duo)元要(yao)(yao)素(su)、微(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)協同自(zi)治(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)新(xin)型(xing)(有源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan))配(pei)(pei)(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)配(pei)(pei)(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)區域能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)平(ping)衡與(yu)(yu)(yu)互動作(zuo)用。巨量新(xin)形(xing)(xing)(xing)態(tai)(tai)新(xin)市(shi)場主(zhu)體融(rong)入配(pei)(pei)(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang),功能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)由單(dan)純從主(zhu)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)獲取和(he)(he)分配(pei)(pei)(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng),轉(zhuan)(zhuan)(zhuan)向(xiang)(xiang)與(yu)(yu)(yu)主(zhu)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)進(jin)行能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)量、信息、碳流、價值流的(de)(de)(de)(de)多(duo)(duo)要(yao)(yao)素(su)雙向(xiang)(xiang)互動。再一(yi)方(fang)面(mian),自(zi)治(zhi)型(xing)小微(wei)系(xi)統(tong)發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)“就地平(ping)衡”重要(yao)(yao)作(zuo)用。以(yi)自(zi)治(zhi)型(xing)分布式能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)和(he)(he)自(zi)治(zhi)型(xing)虛擬(ni)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)(如虛擬(ni)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠、聚合商(shang)等)為主(zhu)體的(de)(de)(de)(de)小微(wei)系(xi)統(tong),與(yu)(yu)(yu)有源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)配(pei)(pei)(pei)(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)共同發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)多(duo)(duo)類能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)(wang)絡(luo)用能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)交(jiao)互與(yu)(yu)(yu)自(zi)治(zhi)協調的(de)(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)用。


三(san)是(shi)要(yao)高度重(zhong)視系統(tong)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的規模、結構、布局與消化(hua)。“十(shi)三(san)五(wu)(wu)”以來(lai),電(dian)力系統(tong)總成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)呈上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)趨勢,2016年到2023年間,年均(jun)增(zeng)長7.0%。預計“十(shi)五(wu)(wu)五(wu)(wu)”電(dian)力系統(tong)總成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)將持(chi)續上(shang)(shang)升,年均(jun)增(zeng)長7.8%左右,超過“十(shi)三(san)五(wu)(wu)”以來(lai)增(zeng)速。初步測算,綜合考慮(lv)各類(lei)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)變化(hua)趨勢,“十(shi)五(wu)(wu)五(wu)(wu)”期間,終端度電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)年均(jun)上(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)約1分(fen)錢(qian),且新能(neng)源(yuan)上(shang)(shang)網成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)降低無法抵消系統(tong)調節成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)上(shang)(shang)升。一方面(mian),要(yao)發揮(hui)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)機制核心(xin)作用進行成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)疏(shu)導。建立“電(dian)能(neng)量市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)疏(shu)導電(dian)能(neng)生產成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)、輔助服務市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)疏(shu)導系統(tong)調節成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)、容(rong)量補償(chang)機制疏(shu)導長期發電(dian)容(rong)量成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)、綠(lv)色市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(指(zhi)碳(tan)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)、綠(lv)證市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)、綠(lv)電(dian)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang))疏(shu)導綠(lv)色增(zeng)量成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)”的市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)化(hua)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)疏(shu)導框架,實(shi)現“市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)高效(xiao)配置”。另一方面(mian),建立覆(fu)蓋(gai)“市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)、政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)與社會”的成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)疏(shu)導體系。政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)和社會提供配套,支撐能(neng)源(yuan)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)充分(fen)發揮(hui)疏(shu)導作用,保障市(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)以外(wai)的成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)疏(shu)導順(shun)暢(chang)。


第三(san)大核心問題,就是加快建(jian)設全(quan)國(guo)統一電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)。面(mian)對越來(lai)越多元化(hua)的(de)新市(shi)場(chang)主體(ti)不斷涌入電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang),要充分發揮以電(dian)(dian)價(jia)機(ji)制為(wei)主的(de)市(shi)場(chang)機(ji)制作用(yong),有效確保電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供需(xu)(xu)平衡和(he)促進電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供需(xu)(xu)協同,需(xu)(xu)要著力(li)(li)解決三(san)大難題。


一(yi)是(shi)要積極(ji)穩妥推進各類經濟屬性(xing)主(zhu)體全(quan)(quan)面入(ru)市(shi)(shi)。堅持“兩(liang)個(ge)毫不(bu)動搖(yao)”,嚴格入(ru)市(shi)(shi)標準規范(fan),確保市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)安全(quan)(quan)穩定運行(xing)。一(yi)方面,推動新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)全(quan)(quan)面參與(yu)(yu)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)交(jiao)易。完善“報(bao)量(liang)報(bao)價(jia)”“報(bao)量(liang)不(bu)報(bao)價(jia)”等(deng)(deng)多(duo)元化市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)參與(yu)(yu)模式,結(jie)合(he)差價(jia)結(jie)算機制實現(xian)與(yu)(yu)現(xian)有(you)政(zheng)策的有(you)序(xu)銜接(jie)。另一(yi)方面,引導儲能(neng)(neng)、虛擬電廠、用戶側資源(yuan)等(deng)(deng)新(xin)型主(zhu)體入(ru)市(shi)(shi)。明確其市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)準入(ru)條件(jian)、交(jiao)易規則(ze)及安全(quan)(quan)責任,例如新(xin)型儲能(neng)(neng)可作為(wei)獨(du)立主(zhu)體或與(yu)(yu)所(suo)屬電源(yuan)聯(lian)合(he)參與(yu)(yu)輔助服務、現(xian)貨交(jiao)易等(deng)(deng)。再一(yi)方面,健(jian)全(quan)(quan)完善市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)退出機制。對不(bu)符合(he)安全(quan)(quan)標準、持續違反市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)規則(ze)的主(zhu)體實行(xing)有(you)序(xu)退出,保障市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)公(gong)平競爭(zheng)秩序(xu),形成“多(duo)買多(duo)賣”的競爭(zheng)性(xing)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)格局。


二是(shi)要建(jian)立科(ke)學(xue)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價機制(zhi)以確保充裕的(de)有效容量(liang)和(he)靈(ling)活調(diao)節能力。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統成本和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價水(shui)平(ping)對新發展格局下(xia)實(shi)現經濟社會高質量(liang)發展至關(guan)重要,電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價機制(zhi)是(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力市場(chang)的(de)基礎和(he)前提。科(ke)學(xue)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價機制(zhi)可以科(ke)學(xue)反(fan)映不(bu)同類型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源在電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統與市場(chang)運行(xing)中不(bu)同時段(duan)的(de)價值,增(zeng)強(qiang)投資預期(qi),引導(dao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網科(ke)學(xue)規劃、合理布局、協調(diao)發展;還可以有效配置調(diao)峰調(diao)頻(pin)等靈(ling)活性資源,引導(dao)用戶(hu)主動參與系(xi)統調(diao)節。


三是要實現市場公(gong)平有序(xu)。以《能源(yuan)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)》為(wei)(wei)統(tong)領,以《電(dian)力法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)》《可(ke)再生能源(yuan)法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)》等為(wei)(wei)骨干(gan),以行政法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)規(gui)和(he)地(di)方立法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)為(wei)(wei)補充,構建全流程、一致性(xing)的(de)新(xin)型電(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)高(gao)質量(liang)(liang)發(fa)展法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)治(zhi)保障體系(xi),全面覆蓋規(gui)劃建設(she)、運行管理、市場交易(yi)、價格機制發(fa)展各(ge)重(zhong)點(dian)環節,加強與其他領域法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律規(gui)定的(de)銜接性(xing),提升新(xin)型電(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)高(gao)質量(liang)(liang)發(fa)展法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)律制度體系(xi)的(de)系(xi)統(tong)性(xing)、整體性(xing)、協同(tong)性(xing),為(wei)(wei)能源(yuan)高(gao)質量(liang)(liang)發(fa)展提供法(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)治(zhi)保障。


大力發展以創新為內核的


新質生產力


攻克構建新型電力系統(tong)的三大核心(xin)問題,從根本(ben)上引(yin)領系統(tong)躍升、突(tu)破(po)發(fa)(fa)展瓶頸,必(bi)須依靠科技(ji)創(chuang)新和治理創(chuang)新。面向未來,應大力發(fa)(fa)展以創(chuang)新為內(nei)核的新質生(sheng)產(chan)力,加(jia)快(kuai)實現(xian)(xian)電力治理能力現(xian)(xian)代化,加(jia)快(kuai)打造(zao)具有(you)全球競爭力的現(xian)(xian)代化電力產(chan)業(ye)體系。


一(yi)是(shi)推動(dong)有(you)組織的(de)(de)電力(li)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin),加(jia)快實現高水平(ping)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電力(li)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)自(zi)立(li)自(zi)強(qiang)。一(yi)方(fang)面(mian),科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)應(ying)與(yu)新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)電力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)轉(zhuan)型(xing)路(lu)(lu)徑(jing)、各類電源(yuan)資源(yuan)功(gong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)定(ding)(ding)位轉(zhuan)變一(yi)體(ti)(ti)(ti)化(hua)布(bu)局。電力(li)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)的(de)(de)戰略(lve)布(bu)局、攻(gong)關(guan)(guan)方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)、路(lu)(lu)線(xian)圖、突破(po)時間表決定(ding)(ding)著能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)否按預期實現碳中(zhong)和(he)戰略(lve)目(mu)標,影響著新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)電力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)路(lu)(lu)徑(jing)設(she)計、節(jie)(jie)奏權衡、不同的(de)(de)成(cheng)本與(yu)研發風險等。同時,“雙(shuang)(shuang)碳”目(mu)標下(xia)新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)電力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)路(lu)(lu)徑(jing)規劃也是(shi)基于電源(yuan)多元化(hua)功(gong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)定(ding)(ding)位、一(yi)定(ding)(ding)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)進(jin)步預期,對源(yuan)網荷儲(chu)全環節(jie)(jie)各類技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)路(lu)(lu)線(xian)、創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)重(zhong)點(dian)、突破(po)時點(dian)、技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)經濟(ji)性(xing)水平(ping)都有(you)具(ju)(ju)體(ti)(ti)(ti)要(yao)(yao)求。綜(zong)合來看,轉(zhuan)型(xing)路(lu)(lu)徑(jing)、電源(yuan)功(gong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)定(ding)(ding)位、科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)方(fang)向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)之間具(ju)(ju)有(you)互動(dong)關(guan)(guan)系(xi)(xi)(xi),彼(bi)此(ci)要(yao)(yao)在(zai)新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)電力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)復雜、動(dong)態和(he)不確(que)定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)演化(hua)中(zhong)實現協同,需要(yao)(yao)加(jia)強(qiang)整體(ti)(ti)(ti)研究與(yu)滾(gun)動(dong)規劃。另一(yi)方(fang)面(mian),科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)需要(yao)(yao)開展(zhan)重(zhong)大工程集成(cheng)創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)、一(yi)體(ti)(ti)(ti)化(hua)設(she)計。面(mian)向(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)“雙(shuang)(shuang)碳”目(mu)標,新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)電力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)總(zong)體(ti)(ti)(ti)問(wen)題(ti)更具(ju)(ju)長期性(xing)、復雜性(xing)、動(dong)態性(xing),迫切需要(yao)(yao)依靠集成(cheng)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)提(ti)供破(po)局之道。新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)電力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)面(mian)臨(lin)的(de)(de)挑(tiao)戰既有(you)各領域技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)攻(gong)關(guan)(guan)難(nan)題(ti),也有(you)煤(mei)電、可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、核電、電網、氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)與(yu)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)各領域整體(ti)(ti)(ti)集成(cheng)問(wen)題(ti),是(shi)一(yi)個需要(yao)(yao)全環節(jie)(jie)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)分頭(tou)攻(gong)關(guan)(guan)加(jia)集成(cheng)應(ying)用(yong)的(de)(de)綜(zong)合性(xing)、系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)性(xing)工程。此(ci)外,新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)電力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)集成(cheng)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)(ji)創(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)要(yao)(yao)以場景思維和(he)重(zhong)大工程設(she)計為(wei)牽引,推動(dong)全產(chan)業(ye)鏈工業(ye)化(hua)規模的(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)電力(li)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)關(guan)(guan)鍵技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)突破(po)與(yu)應(ying)用(yong),實現理論、技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)、裝(zhuang)備、軟技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)的(de)(de)一(yi)體(ti)(ti)(ti)化(hua)驗證,促進(jin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)供應(ying)基礎設(she)施(shi)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)性(xing)革新(xin)(xin)(xin),引領和(he)帶動(dong)全社會產(chan)業(ye)布(bu)局與(yu)發展(zhan)。


二是(shi)推進(jin)電力(li)(li)(li)治(zhi)理(li)體(ti)(ti)系改革,加快(kuai)實(shi)現電力(li)(li)(li)治(zhi)理(li)能力(li)(li)(li)現代(dai)化(hua)。加快(kuai)構建與新型電力(li)(li)(li)系統(tong)相匹配的治(zhi)理(li)體(ti)(ti)系,推進(jin)電力(li)(li)(li)治(zhi)理(li)能力(li)(li)(li)現代(dai)化(hua),就是(shi)要(yao)以安全(quan)治(zhi)理(li)夯實(shi)發(fa)(fa)展基礎(chu)、以規劃(hua)治(zhi)理(li)優化(hua)演化(hua)路徑、以市(shi)場治(zhi)理(li)釋放行業活力(li)(li)(li)、以碳(tan)治(zhi)理(li)服務全(quan)面綠色轉型、以法治(zhi)治(zhi)理(li)保障良好發(fa)(fa)展環境,實(shi)現規劃(hua)引(yin)領、科技為驅,市(shi)場配置、電價(jia)為基,監管全(quan)域、安全(quan)為先,法治(zhi)保障、平(ping)等(deng)為要(yao),高(gao)質量推進(jin)構建新型電力(li)(li)(li)系統(tong)。


三是(shi)推進(jin)創新(xin)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)人才(cai)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)資金鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)深度融(rong)合,加快建設現代化電(dian)力產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)體(ti)系(xi)。新(xin)型(xing)電(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)將(jiang)從以化石能源為(wei)底(di)色,通過對價值形(xing)態、企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)形(xing)態、循環(huan)形(xing)態和(he)空間形(xing)態的全(quan)方(fang)位(wei)重塑,演變為(wei)以新(xin)質生產(chan)(chan)力為(wei)基礎,以新(xin)能源為(wei)主體(ti)的新(xin)型(xing)電(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian),在(zai)創造和(he)滿足高質量用(yong)能需求的同時,實現產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)(lian)水平全(quan)面躍(yue)遷,成(cheng)為(wei)推動經濟社會發展(zhan)的新(xin)引擎(qing)和(he)新(xin)動能。

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