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“綠電替代+綠氫替代，是‘雙碳’目標下我國能源電力系統發展的趨勢。”在12月5日舉行的新(xin)型(xing)電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)與(yu)新(xin)型(xing)儲能解決方案(an)論壇上，中國(guo)電(dian)(dian)科院名譽院長、中國(guo)科學(xue)院院士周孝(xiao)信說。

周孝信介紹，我國一次能源(yuan)消費由化(hua)石(shi)能源(yuan)、非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利用(yong)、非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能源(yuan)非(fei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利用(yong)三部分(fen)組成。以風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光伏、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)等各類(lei)常規(gui)非(fei)化(hua)石(shi)能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)為(wei)主，以及(ji)光熱、地熱和生物質發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、綠氫及(ji)其衍生非(fei)常規(gui)燃料發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，逐步替(ti)代(dai)化(hua)石(shi)能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和部分(fen)非(fei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利用(yong)，綠電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)替(ti)代(dai)將成為(wei)未(wei)來新(xin)型能源(yuan)體系的主體。同時，綠氫在(zai)工(gong)業(ye)交通等領(ling)域電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)替(ti)代(dai)困難場景下，逐步替(ti)代(dai)化(hua)石(shi)能源(yuan)的非(fei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)利用(yong)，也(ye)就是(shi)綠氫替(ti)代(dai)。

以綠電(dian)(dian)(dian)替代+綠氫替代為代表(biao)的新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統，具(ju)有高比例(li)可再生能源(yuan)、高比例(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)子裝備、多能互補綜合能源(yuan)、數(shu)字化(hua)智能化(hua)智慧能源(yuan)、清(qing)潔高效低碳零碳、高韌性本質(zhi)安(an)全(quan)可靠(kao)等主要技(ji)術特征。

以高比例可再生能(neng)源電(dian)力系統為例，截至2022年底，全(quan)國(guo)并網風(feng)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)達到3.65億kW，太陽能(neng)發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)3.93億kW、風(feng)電(dian)光伏(fu)裝(zhuang)機(ji)總(zong)(zong)容(rong)量占全(quan)國(guo)發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)總(zong)(zong)量29.6%。2035年，我國(guo)風(feng)電(dian)光伏(fu)裝(zhuang)機(ji)量將超過總(zong)(zong)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量50%，非化(hua)石能(neng)源年發(fa)電(dian)量占比超過50%。

“綠色電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)（包括綠氫電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)）廣泛替代化(hua)石能源的實施(shi)，大大降低了(le)能源和電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)的二(er)氧化(hua)碳排放量，能源利用效率顯著提高。”周孝信認為。其中，綠氫長時(shi)(shi)儲能發電(dian)(dian)(dian)能夠減少常規和短時(shi)(shi)新型儲能需求，為電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)的運(yun)行提供靈活性(xing)、韌性(xing)和慣性(xing)資(zi)源，有利于電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)的安全(quan)穩定運(yun)行。

周孝信認為，要(yao)大(da)力(li)(li)發展各類儲能(neng)技術，以應對正常運行(xing)工(gong)況下(xia)調節(jie)靈活性和極端(duan)(duan)條件下(xia)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)韌性要(yao)求(qiu)。實現(xian)源端(duan)(duan)多能(neng)互補綜(zong)合能(neng)源電(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)和受(shou)端(duan)(duan)多能(neng)互補綜(zong)合能(neng)源電(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)，并建設產銷之(zhi)間(jian)大(da)規模能(neng)源電(dian)力(li)(li)輸送(song)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)，既安全可靠輸送(song)綠(lv)色(se)電(dian)力(li)(li)又輸送(song)綠(lv)色(se)氣體(ti)液體(ti)燃料，變“西(xi)電(dian)東送(song)”為“西(xi)能(neng)東輸”。