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中電聯發布的《2023年一季度全國電力供需形勢分析預測報告》（以下簡稱“《報告》”）指出，在新能源發電快速發展的帶動下，預計2023年全年新增發電裝機規模將達到甚至超過2.5億千瓦。

日(ri)前，記者從中(zhong)電(dian)聯獲悉，由于多方(fang)面因(yin)素(su)疊加，給電(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)(xu)形(xing)勢(shi)帶來(lai)不確(que)定(ding)性。預計2023年全國電(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)(xu)總(zong)體緊(jin)(jin)平(ping)衡(heng)，部分區域用電(dian)高峰時段電(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)(xu)偏(pian)(pian)緊(jin)(jin)。其中(zhong)，二季度(du)南方(fang)區域電(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)(xu)形(xing)勢(shi)偏(pian)(pian)緊(jin)(jin)。迎峰度(du)夏期間，華東、華中(zhong)、南方(fang)區域電(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)(xu)形(xing)勢(shi)偏(pian)(pian)緊(jin)(jin)，華北(bei)、東北(bei)、西北(bei)區域電(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)(xu)基本(ben)平(ping)衡(heng)。

《報告》顯示，一季度，全(quan)國全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)2.12萬(wan)億千瓦(wa)時，同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長3.6%，比(bi)上年四季度增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)提高1.1個百分(fen)點。3月(yue)(yue)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)比(bi)前兩個月(yue)(yue)回升較多(duo)；全(quan)國共有26個省(sheng)份(fen)(fen)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)正增(zeng)(zeng)長，西(xi)部地區用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)領先。其中，寧夏（14.6%）、青海（12.2%）、甘肅（10.9%）、西(xi)藏（10.3%）4個省(sheng)份(fen)(fen)同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)超過10%；此外，內蒙古(gu)和(he)廣西(xi)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)超過8%。

一(yi)(yi)季度，全國(guo)新增(zeng)(zeng)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)5900萬千瓦(wa)，同比(bi)多投產(chan)2726萬千瓦(wa)；其中(zhong)，新增(zeng)(zeng)非化(hua)(hua)石能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)5166萬千瓦(wa)，占新增(zeng)(zeng)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)總容(rong)量(liang)的(de)比(bi)重為(wei)87.6%。截至3月底(di)(di)，全國(guo)全口徑發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)26.2億千瓦(wa)，同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長9.1%。其中(zhong)，非化(hua)(hua)石能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)13.3億千瓦(wa)，同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長15.9%，同比(bi)提(ti)高3.0個百(bai)分(fen)點。從(cong)分(fen)類型投資、發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)及結構變化(hua)(hua)等(deng)情(qing)況看，電(dian)(dian)力行業綠色低碳轉型成效顯著，2023年3月底(di)(di)非化(hua)(hua)石能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)占總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)比(bi)重達到(dao)50.5%，首次超過一(yi)(yi)半。

同時(shi)，煤電(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量占全口(kou)徑總發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量的(de)比重保持(chi)在(zai)六成，仍是當前我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供應的(de)最主(zhu)要電(dian)(dian)源，在(zai)來(lai)水(shui)明顯(xian)偏枯時(shi)可(ke)以較好地彌(mi)補水(shui)電(dian)(dian)出力(li)的(de)下(xia)降，充分發(fa)揮兜底保供作用。一(yi)季度，全國(guo)規(gui)模以上(shang)電(dian)(dian)廠發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量2.07萬(wan)億千瓦時(shi)，同比增長2.4%。規(gui)模以上(shang)電(dian)(dian)廠火電(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量同比分別增長1.7%和4.4%。

此(ci)外，風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太(tai)陽能發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設備利(li)用小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比分(fen)別提高61、17、3小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。分(fen)類型看，一季(ji)度，全(quan)國6000千瓦及以上電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設備利(li)用小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)868小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比降低(di)31小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)544小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比降低(di)92小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)1097小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比降低(di)18小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。其中，煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)1158小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比降低(di)11小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)；氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)550小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比降低(di)25小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)1864小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比提高17小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。并網風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)615小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比提高61小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。并網太(tai)陽能發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)303小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比提高3小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。

《報告(gao)》指出，一季(ji)度，全國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統安全穩(wen)定運行，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需總體平(ping)衡：受來水持續偏枯、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤供(gong)(gong)應緊(jin)張、取暖(nuan)負(fu)荷增長等因素疊加影(ying)響，貴(gui)州、云(yun)南等少數省份電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需形勢緊(jin)張，通過加強(qiang)省間(jian)余(yu)缺互(hu)濟、實施負(fu)荷側管(guan)理(li)等措施，有力(li)保(bao)障了電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)應平(ping)穩(wen)有序。

電力(li)消(xiao)費方面，受上(shang)年(nian)同期低基數等(deng)因(yin)素影響，預計(ji)今年(nian)二季度電力(li)消(xiao)費增速將明顯回升，拉動上(shang)半年(nian)全(quan)(quan)社會用電量同比(bi)增長6%左右。正常氣候情(qing)況下，預計(ji)2023年(nian)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)全(quan)(quan)社會用電量9.15萬億千(qian)瓦時，比(bi)2022年(nian)增長6%左右。

電(dian)力(li)供應方面，在新(xin)能源發(fa)電(dian)快速發(fa)展的帶動(dong)下，預計2023年(nian)(nian)全(quan)年(nian)(nian)新(xin)增發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)規模將達到(dao)(dao)甚(shen)至(zhi)超過2.5億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)。其中，非化石能源發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)投產1.8億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，新(xin)投產的總發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)規模以及非化石能源發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)規模將再創歷史新(xin)高(gao)。2023年(nian)(nian)底全(quan)國(guo)發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量預計將超過28億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，其中非化石能源發(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)合計達到(dao)(dao)14.8億千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，占總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量比重上升至(zhi)52.5%左右(you)。

由于多(duo)方面(mian)(mian)(mian)因素疊(die)加(jia)，給電力(li)供需形勢帶來不確(que)定性(xing)。電力(li)供應(ying)(ying)方面(mian)(mian)(mian)，降水(shui)、風光資源、燃料供應(ying)(ying)等方面(mian)(mian)(mian)存在不確(que)定性(xing)。氣象部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)門預(yu)計今(jin)年(nian)夏季（6月至8月）西(xi)南(nan)地(di)區東部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)及華中(zhong)中(zhong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)降水(shui)偏(pian)少、氣溫偏(pian)高(gao)，湖(hu)北(bei)大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、湖(hu)南(nan)北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、重慶東部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、四川東北(bei)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)等地(di)降水(shui)偏(pian)少2～5成，可能出現區域性(xing)氣象干(gan)旱，將(jiang)會對(dui)當(dang)地(di)電力(li)供應(ying)(ying)以及電力(li)外(wai)送產生影響。此外(wai)，煤電企(qi)業持續虧損(sun)導致技(ji)改檢修投入不足帶來設備(bei)風險隱患上升，均增加(jia)了電力(li)生產供應(ying)(ying)的(de)不確(que)定性(xing)。

正常(chang)氣候情況(kuang)下，預計全國(guo)最(zui)高用電負荷13.7億千瓦左右(you)，比(bi)(bi)2022年增(zeng)加8000萬(wan)千瓦左右(you)；若出(chu)現長(chang)時段大范(fan)圍極端氣候，則全國(guo)最(zui)高用電負荷可能比(bi)(bi)2022年增(zeng)加1億千瓦左右(you)。預計2023年全國(guo)電力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)總體(ti)緊平(ping)(ping)衡，部分區域用電高峰(feng)時段電力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)偏緊。其(qi)中，二季度南(nan)方區域電力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)形(xing)勢偏緊。迎峰(feng)度夏期(qi)間(jian)，華(hua)東、華(hua)中、南(nan)方區域電力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)形(xing)勢偏緊，華(hua)北、東北、西(xi)北區域電力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)基本(ben)平(ping)(ping)衡。

為(wei)確保迎(ying)峰度夏期間(jian)電(dian)力安(an)全穩(wen)定供應，結合(he)電(dian)力供需形勢(shi)和(he)行業發展趨勢(shi)，《報告》建議，一是(shi)要保持煤(mei)炭(tan)穩(wen)定供應平衡市場(chang)供需；二要加強電(dian)煤(mei)中長(chang)期合(he)同簽(qian)約(yue)履(lv)約(yue)，進(jin)一步發揮中長(chang)期合(he)同壓(ya)艙(cang)石(shi)作用；三是(shi)加大(da)對(dui)電(dian)煤(mei)市場(chang)價(jia)格的監管。

與(yu)此同時，應加快(kuai)(kuai)推進新增電(dian)源(yuan)項目建設，挖(wa)掘(jue)現(xian)有發(fa)電(dian)機組潛力(li)(li)、加快(kuai)(kuai)度夏(xia)前網架(jia)補強以(yi)及新建電(dian)廠(chang)的并網工程、加強電(dian)力(li)(li)負荷管理，挖(wa)掘(jue)需(xu)求(qiu)側資(zi)源(yuan)，以(yi)提升電(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統調節支撐能力(li)(li)。

在充分(fen)(fen)(fen)發(fa)(fa)揮市場機制在電(dian)力(li)安全保供中的(de)重要(yao)作用(yong)方面，注重完善跨省(sheng)跨區電(dian)力(li)交易(yi)機制，充分(fen)(fen)(fen)發(fa)(fa)揮大電(dian)網平臺作用(yong)。并(bing)加(jia)(jia)快建立煤電(dian)機組容(rong)量補償和(he)成本(ben)回收(shou)機制，推動輔助服務費用(yong)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)側(ce)和(he)用(yong)戶(hu)側(ce)合(he)理分(fen)(fen)(fen)攤，保障(zhang)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)企業成本(ben)合(he)理回收(shou)，激勵新增電(dian)源投資，提高發(fa)(fa)電(dian)容(rong)量長(chang)期充裕性，確保電(dian)力(li)安全平穩供給。此外，加(jia)(jia)強電(dian)力(li)中長(chang)期交易(yi)監(jian)(jian)管、加(jia)(jia)強對各地(di)落實電(dian)價政策監(jian)(jian)管，進一步規(gui)范(fan)電(dian)力(li)交易(yi)組織。