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9月28日，由(you)國家太陽(yang)能(neng)光熱(re)(re)產業技(ji)(ji)術創新戰(zhan)略聯盟、中(zhong)(zhong)國工程(cheng)熱(re)(re)物理學會、中(zhong)(zhong)國可(ke)再生能(neng)源學會、中(zhong)(zhong)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)機工程(cheng)學會、全(quan)國太陽(yang)能(neng)光熱(re)(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)標(biao)準化技(ji)(ji)術委員會共同主辦，浙(zhe)江(jiang)省湖(hu)州市吳興區人(ren)民政(zheng)府、浙(zhe)江(jiang)高(gao)晟光熱(re)(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)技(ji)(ji)術研(yan)究(jiu)院(yuan)有(you)限(xian)公(gong)司、中(zhong)(zhong)關村新源太陽(yang)能(neng)熱(re)(re)利用技(ji)(ji)術服務中(zhong)(zhong)心、中(zhong)(zhong)國大(da)唐集團新能(neng)源科(ke)學技(ji)(ji)術研(yan)究(jiu)院(yuan)有(you)限(xian)公(gong)司和(he)中(zhong)(zhong)國科(ke)學院(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)工研(yan)究(jiu)所共同承辦的(de)“2021中(zhong)(zhong)國太陽(yang)能(neng)熱(re)(re)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)大(da)會”在浙(zhe)江(jiang)省湖(hu)州市皇冠假日酒店落(luo)幕。大(da)會上，國家電(dian)(dian)(dian)網有(you)限(xian)公(gong)司西北(bei)分部(bu)技(ji)(ji)術中(zhong)(zhong)心主任(ren)孫驍強作了“以(yi)新能(neng)源為主體的(de)新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統中(zhong)(zhong)光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站完全(quan)替代火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)規(gui)劃研(yan)究(jiu)”的(de)報(bao)告，經本人(ren)同意，特將部(bu)分內容摘錄如下，以(yi)供參考。

以新能(neng)源為主體(ti)的新型電力系統中光熱電站完全替代火電規劃研究

孫驍強(qiang)1，李慶海1，李富春2，楊攀峰2，楊楠(nan)1，汪瑩1，張小奇1，霍超1，傅旭2

1國家電網有限公司(si)西北分部

2中國電(dian)力工程(cheng)顧問集團(tuan)西北電(dian)力設計院有限公(gong)司(si)

1引言

隨著國(guo)家(jia)雙碳戰(zhan)略目標的(de)實施，我國(guo)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)開發(fa)規(gui)模繼(ji)續擴大，火電(dian)(dian)建設(she)空(kong)間將進一步壓(ya)縮，而系統(tong)負荷仍在(zai)穩步增長，風電(dian)(dian)及(ji)光伏的(de)波(bo)動性(xing)使系統(tong)難以實現全(quan)時(shi)段電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量平衡。可再生能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)的(de)季節性(xing)不平衡是電(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)中(zhong)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)占比(bi)升(sheng)高(gao)到一定階段必然面臨的(de)問題(ti)。

以新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)為主的(de)新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)，需要尋求能(neng)(neng)夠(gou)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)穩定電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)，西北地區光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站本(ben)身具有一定替(ti)(ti)代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)能(neng)(neng)力，但受太(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)直(zhi)輻射(she)影(ying)響，在(zai)極(ji)(ji)端(duan)天(tian)(tian)氣(qi)無法獲(huo)得足夠(gou)的(de)熱(re)能(neng)(neng)，連續極(ji)(ji)端(duan)天(tian)(tian)氣(qi)不平(ping)衡問題更加突出(chu)，無法全(quan)容量參加電(dian)(dian)(dian)力平(ping)衡，替(ti)(ti)代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)能(neng)(neng)力大(da)打折(zhe)扣，通過增加應(ying)急燃氣(qi)鍋(guo)爐備(bei)用發電(dian)(dian)(dian)可(ke)在(zai)極(ji)(ji)端(duan)天(tian)(tian)氣(qi)補充熱(re)能(neng)(neng)，甚至可(ke)以應(ying)對系統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)量供應(ying)的(de)季節(jie)性(xing)不平(ping)衡，做(zuo)到全(quan)容量全(quan)時(shi)段全(quan)功能(neng)(neng)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)，保(bao)障電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)量供應(ying)，同(tong)時(shi)保(bao)證(zheng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量中絕大(da)部分仍(reng)是可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)，實現以少量低(di)碳能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)帶動大(da)規模可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)開發，在(zai)新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)中具有重(zhong)要示范意義(yi)。

2新型電力系統電力保障形勢

傳統(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)(tong)以(yi)火電(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)等常(chang)規電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)為主，調(diao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)需(xu)求主要是負荷(he)波動引起，隨(sui)著(zhu)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)滲透率的(de)不斷(duan)提高，調(diao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)需(xu)求也在(zai)發生變(bian)化，高比例新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)(tong)調(diao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)需(xu)求主要是為了滿(man)足新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)接納(na)需(xu)求。與(yu)此同(tong)時(shi)，在(zai)國家雙碳戰略的(de)推進過程中(zhong)，火電(dian)(dian)發展(zhan)空(kong)間大大壓縮，導(dao)致為滿(man)足系(xi)統(tong)(tong)最大電(dian)(dian)力需(xu)求的(de)常(chang)規電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力供(gong)應(ying)也日趨緊(jin)張。可以(yi)預見，以(yi)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)為主體的(de)電(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統(tong)(tong)同(tong)時(shi)面臨向上調(diao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)和向下調(diao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)兩(liang)個方面的(de)需(xu)求，尤其(qi)是向上調(diao)峰(feng)(feng)(feng)關系(xi)到電(dian)(dian)力保障問題顯得尤為重要。

受(shou)資(zi)源約(yue)束的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源（限(xian)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)）向上調峰能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)發揮除(chu)了跟機組(zu)自(zi)身調峰能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)有關(guan)外，還與資(zi)源決(jue)定的(de)(de)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)密(mi)切(qie)相關(guan)，不同電(dian)(dian)(dian)源的(de)(de)向上調峰能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)存在(zai)較(jiao)大(da)差(cha)異(yi)。如水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)最大(da)出(chu)力(li)(li)(li)理論可以達(da)到預想出(chu)力(li)(li)(li)，但實際往往受(shou)來水(shui)約(yue)束不能(neng)(neng)達(da)到上述最大(da)值，比如青(qing)海(hai)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)冬季(ji)(ji)受(shou)來水(shui)影(ying)響最大(da)出(chu)力(li)(li)(li)僅為其(qi)(qi)裝機的(de)(de)50%-70%；儲能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)在(zai)系統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)不足(zu)時(shi)也難以發揮作用；光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)類似，在(zai)太陽能(neng)(neng)資(zi)源不好時(shi)，最大(da)出(chu)力(li)(li)(li)也會受(shou)限(xian)。因此，隨著新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系統(tong)中限(xian)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)逐步增加，其(qi)(qi)參(can)加電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)平(ping)衡(heng)能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)不足(zu)，再加上季(ji)(ji)節性(xing)資(zi)源不平(ping)衡(heng)，以新能(neng)(neng)源為主體的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系統(tong)將面臨電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)保障缺乏穩定電(dian)(dian)(dian)源支撐的(de)(de)嚴峻形勢。

由(you)于電(dian)力(li)無法(fa)大規模存儲的(de)特(te)性，高比例新能(neng)源接入之后，電(dian)源側不確定性增(zeng)(zeng)加，在可靠的(de)常規機(ji)組無法(fa)滿足(zu)全部負荷(he)供(gong)電(dian)的(de)需求時(shi)，電(dian)力(li)保(bao)障難(nan)度增(zeng)(zeng)大，特(te)別是極端氣候條件(jian)下的(de)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)應難(nan)度更大。在國(guo)家雙(shuang)碳目(mu)標背景下，光熱電(dian)站具備替代火(huo)電(dian)的(de)潛力(li)，通過增(zeng)(zeng)加應急鍋爐備用發電(dian)應對極端天氣，可以(yi)全容(rong)量(liang)替代火(huo)電(dian)裝機(ji)，作為(wei)季節性調(diao)峰電(dian)源滿足(zu)長時(shi)間尺度電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)平衡(heng)需要。

本文首先基于光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站(zhan)出力特性和系統高峰時段需求，分析光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站(zhan)替代(dai)火電(dian)能力，然后研究提(ti)(ti)升其保(bao)證(zheng)出力的措施，提(ti)(ti)出測(ce)算(suan)(suan)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站(zhan)應急備(bei)用發電(dian)量計算(suan)(suan)方(fang)法，最后通(tong)過算(suan)(suan)例進(jin)行驗(yan)證(zheng)。

3光熱電站完全替代火電規劃研究

3.1光(guang)熱電站替(ti)代(dai)火電能(neng)力分析

電(dian)力(li)系統中(zhong)一般以(yi)滿(man)足高峰負荷(he)時段電(dian)力(li)平衡(heng)確定系統火電(dian)裝(zhuang)機需求(qiu)，光熱電(dian)站(zhan)要參加電(dian)力(li)平衡(heng)（替(ti)代(dai)火電(dian)裝(zhuang)機）也需要保障高峰負荷(he)時段電(dian)力(li)需求(qiu)。

由于光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)與(yu)太陽直(zhi)輻射密切相關，某些(xie)天光照資(zi)源較(jiao)(jiao)好時(shi)，再加(jia)(jia)上(shang)儲熱(re)裝(zhuang)置蓄(xu)熱(re)，光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)較(jiao)(jiao)多，高峰負荷時(shi)段(duan)可保證系統電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)需求，全容量(liang)參加(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)平衡。而在(zai)陰天或多云天氣，光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)很小(xiao)，極端天氣光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站可能(neng)出力(li)為零，光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站裝(zhuang)機不(bu)能(neng)得(de)到充分利用(yong)，高峰負荷時(shi)段(duan)不(bu)能(neng)有效(xiao)參加(jia)(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)平衡。

系統(tong)可靠性(xing)保證率不(bu)同，光熱(re)(re)電站(zhan)參加平衡容(rong)量也不(bu)一樣(yang)。為(wei)了提高光熱(re)(re)電站(zhan)參加平衡容(rong)量，可以(yi)結合(he)系統(tong)需(xu)要，通過增加應急鍋爐備用(yong)發電，使得光熱(re)(re)電站(zhan)能夠完全替代火電裝機，滿(man)足系統(tong)電力保障需(xu)要。

3.2光熱電(dian)站應(ying)對(dui)季(ji)節性缺電(dian)能(neng)力分析

新能源(yuan)(yuan)出(chu)力具有季(ji)節不均(jun)衡性(xing)，隨著(zhu)新能源(yuan)(yuan)裝機占比不斷提高，新型電(dian)力系統的季(ji)節性(xing)電(dian)力電(dian)量(liang)不平(ping)衡凸顯，某些月份資源(yuan)(yuan)較差的情(qing)況下(xia)，系統電(dian)力電(dian)量(liang)缺(que)額緊缺(que)。目前(qian)來看(kan)在火電(dian)建(jian)設空間逐步壓(ya)縮的背景下(xia)，尚未有可解決季(ji)節性(xing)不平(ping)衡的有效(xiao)手段(duan)。光熱電(dian)站自(zi)身雖然受資源(yuan)(yuan)影(ying)響(xiang)也(ye)存(cun)在季(ji)節性(xing)不均(jun)衡情(qing)況，但(dan)可以(yi)通(tong)過(guo)增加應急鍋爐備用(yong)發(fa)電(dian)以(yi)完(wan)全替代(dai)火電(dian)裝機，完(wan)美解決季(ji)節性(xing)不均(jun)衡問題(ti)。

4算例

以青海為(wei)例，2030年(nian)青海省全(quan)社會用電(dian)量達(da)到1100億kWh，最高發電(dian)負(fu)荷(he)15500MW。青海新能源總裝機(ji)約(yue)57640MW，其中光(guang)伏(fu)34000MW，風電(dian)16530MW，光(guang)熱5210MW。

4.1光熱電站出力特性分析

青海海西地區(qu)(qu)光(guang)熱(re)資(zi)源豐富，烏圖(tu)(tu)、冷湖、德令(ling)哈(ha)地區(qu)(qu)光(guang)熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)季節性明顯。以(yi)100MW光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站（鏡場面積148萬(wan)m2，太陽倍(bei)數2.9，儲熱(re)時(shi)長15h）為例，海西地區(qu)(qu)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站典型(xing)年內各月(yue)發(fa)電(dian)量分布圖(tu)(tu)可以(yi)看(kan)出，2-4月(yue)、9-10月(yue)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)量較(jiao)多(duo)，6-8月(yue)和12月(yue)發(fa)電(dian)量較(jiao)少。通(tong)過海西地區(qu)(qu)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站典型(xing)年各月(yue)日等效(xiao)發(fa)電(dian)小時(shi)數小于(yu)4小時(shi)天(tian)數統計，可以(yi)看(kan)出，全年日光(guang)熱(re)等效(xiao)發(fa)電(dian)小時(shi)數低于(yu)4小時(shi)的天(tian)數分別為52天(tian)、57天(tian)、75天(tian)，在5-8月(yue)發(fa)生較(jiao)多(duo)。

4.2光熱替代火(huo)電能(neng)力分析

從青海(hai)電(dian)網典型(xing)日負荷曲(qu)(qu)線示意圖可(ke)以看出(chu)，青海(hai)負荷曲(qu)(qu)線較平，疊(die)加直流外送(song)曲(qu)(qu)線后，冬季(ji)晚高(gao)峰負荷時段(duan)(duan)一般為(wei)18—21時左右，因此，電(dian)源參(can)加電(dian)力平衡需保(bao)證晚高(gao)峰時段(duan)(duan)4～6h電(dian)力需求。

青海電網典型日負荷曲線示意圖

光熱(re)電(dian)站配置(zhi)儲(chu)熱(re)罐(guan)，考慮(lv)連續陰天情況，預留部(bu)分熱(re)量(liang)跨日(ri)調節(jie)，光熱(re)電(dian)站日(ri)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)優化后，將日(ri)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)從大到小排序，按(an)系統要求(qiu)保證率，確定光熱(re)電(dian)站可調節(jie)日(ri)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)。

作者對海西烏圖地區光熱電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)替代火電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)比(bi)例進行了測算，結果顯(xian)示，按(an)(an)95%保(bao)(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)率(lv)，不考慮跨(kua)日調節(jie)(jie)，光熱電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)日等(deng)效保(bao)(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)小(xiao)時(shi)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)0，基本(ben)不能參(can)加電(dian)(dian)力平(ping)衡，即無法替代火電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)。考慮跨(kua)日調節(jie)(jie)，光熱電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)日等(deng)效保(bao)(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)小(xiao)時(shi)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)5.1h，可滿足晚(wan)高峰負(fu)荷(he)4h需(xu)求(qiu)，全容量(liang)(liang)參(can)加電(dian)(dian)力平(ping)衡，完全替代相(xiang)同(tong)容量(liang)(liang)火電(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)。若(ruo)按(an)(an)100%保(bao)(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)率(lv)，光熱電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)日等(deng)效保(bao)(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)小(xiao)時(shi)數(shu)為(wei)(wei)3.5h，參(can)加電(dian)(dian)力平(ping)衡比(bi)例（火電(dian)(dian)容量(liang)(liang)替代率(lv)）約(yue)87.5%。

在(zai)不同保證率情況下，考慮(lv)跨日調節后的光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)參加電(dian)(dian)力平(ping)衡容量，晚高(gao)峰(feng)時(shi)段按(an)6h，光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)替(ti)代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)裝機比例有所降低，100%保證率下，光熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)僅(jin)可替(ti)代(dai)約50%左右的火電(dian)(dian)裝機。

4.3光熱(re)電站應對季節性缺電能力分析

青海以(yi)水電和新能(neng)源為主，清潔能(neng)源裝機(ji)占比達到90%以(yi)上，全年電量(liang)基本平(ping)衡，但存在季節性不平(ping)衡，冬(dong)季電力電量(liang)缺額較大(da)。

通過青(qing)(qing)(qing)海(hai)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)月電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)布(bu)示意(yi)圖可(ke)以(yi)看出，青(qing)(qing)(qing)海(hai)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)占比較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大(da)，受來(lai)水(shui)影響(xiang)，夏季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)5-10月發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)相(xiang)對較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)多，冬季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)11-12月和(he)1-2月發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)少，季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)節(jie)(jie)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)不(bu)(bu)平衡(heng)明顯。青(qing)(qing)(qing)海(hai)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)月電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)分(fen)布(bu)示意(yi)圖顯示，青(qing)(qing)(qing)海(hai)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)受資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)影響(xiang)也存在較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大(da)的季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)節(jie)(jie)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)不(bu)(bu)平衡(heng)，春(chun)季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)3-5月發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)多，冬季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)11-12月發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)明顯減少。青(qing)(qing)(qing)海(hai)逐(zhu)月電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)平衡(heng)結果(guo)顯示，由(you)于水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)均受資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)約(yue)束，季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)節(jie)(jie)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)不(bu)(bu)平衡(heng)一(yi)直存在，冬季(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)兩者(zhe)疊加后發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)減少較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)多，青(qing)(qing)(qing)海(hai)全省出現較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)大(da)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)缺口。

青海(hai)季(ji)節(jie)性(xing)缺(que)電(dian)問(wen)題一直存在(zai)，且隨著新能(neng)源裝機滲透率逐步提高，季(ji)節(jie)性(xing)缺(que)電(dian)問(wen)題日(ri)益加劇。目(mu)前(qian)青海(hai)的冬季(ji)缺(que)電(dian)問(wen)題仍主要依(yi)托西北主網提供電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)支(zhi)撐，但隨著西北其他(ta)省(sheng)份火電(dian)建設(she)空間進(jin)一步壓縮，再加上(shang)規劃通道建成和負荷逐步增長，電(dian)力(li)盈(ying)余逐步減小，給青海(hai)能(neng)夠提供的電(dian)力(li)支(zhi)撐有限(xian)，需(xu)要青海(hai)從自身(shen)內部尋求能(neng)夠解決季(ji)節(jie)性(xing)電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)不平衡的措施。目(mu)前(qian)來(lai)看，尚未有經濟可行(xing)的跨季(ji)調節(jie)手段，光熱電(dian)站在(zai)通過應(ying)急備用發電(dian)可完(wan)全替代火電(dian)，以應(ying)對上(shang)述季(ji)節(jie)性(xing)缺(que)電(dian)問(wen)題。

根據前述(shu)方(fang)法(fa)初步測(ce)算，海西地區(qu)全年(nian)應(ying)急(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)22億kWh，其中12月(yue)份(fen)需(xu)要應(ying)急(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)最大，約14億kWh（占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)64%），小(xiao)時數提高約440h，占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)僅約8.8%。冬季12月(yue)日最大應(ying)急(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)1.2億kWh（全天(tian)24h連續(xu)應(ying)急(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)運行），小(xiao)時最大發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)500萬kWh（即滿功(gong)率發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)），可全容量(liang)替代火電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機。

2030年海西地區(qu)光熱電(dian)站(zhan)發(fa)電(dian)量分(fen)布（含應急發(fa)電(dian)）

2030年海西地區光熱電站12月逐時平均發電量（含應急發電）

對不同光熱規模對應(ying)的應(ying)急(ji)備(bei)用(yong)發電比例(li)進行敏(min)感性分(fen)析(xi)，隨(sui)著光熱規模逐步(bu)減(jian)少，光熱應(ying)急(ji)備(bei)用(yong)發電比例(li)呈(cheng)現(xian)逐步(bu)升高趨(qu)勢(shi)，由(you)8.9%增加至(zhi)20.2%。

5結論

在國家雙碳目標(biao)驅(qu)動下，我國新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)裝機(ji)規(gui)模將更加(jia)快速增長，而火(huo)(huo)電(dian)建設空(kong)間進一步(bu)壓(ya)縮，未來以(yi)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)為(wei)主的新(xin)型電(dian)力(li)系統將面(mian)臨一定(ding)的電(dian)力(li)保障問題(ti)，光熱電(dian)站作為(wei)儲(chu)熱型新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)站，通過增加(jia)應急(ji)鍋爐備(bei)用(yong)發(fa)電(dian)，可以(yi)全時(shi)段替代火(huo)(huo)電(dian)裝機(ji)，為(wei)系統提供電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)支撐，同時(shi)可以(yi)實(shi)現以(yi)少量(liang)低碳能(neng)源(yuan)帶動更大規(gui)模可再生能(neng)源(yuan)開(kai)發(fa)，可以(yi)助力(li)我國新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)開(kai)發(fa)目標(biao)和碳達(da)峰(feng)目標(biao)早日(ri)完(wan)(wan)成。研究結果初步(bu)表明，2030年前青海(hai)新(xin)增1000MW～5000MW光熱電(dian)站，通過增加(jia)10%～20%左右(you)應急(ji)備(bei)用(yong)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)可以(yi)完(wan)(wan)全替代相同容量(liang)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)，從(cong)而應對(dui)季(ji)節性缺電(dian)問題(ti)或極端天氣下的電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)不足(zu)問題(ti)，保障電(dian)力(li)可靠供應。