无码日韩精品一区二区免费暖暖,久久精品国产精品亚洲,开心播播网,女人床技48动态图,国产精品无码免费专区午夜

一、上半年電力行業運行特征

上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)，全(quan)(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電量平穩增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)明顯下降。其中，第二產業用(yong)(yong)電量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)下降是拉動全(quan)(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)下降的主(zhu)要原因(yin)，第三產業和居民生活用(yong)(yong)電量保持(chi)(chi)較(jiao)快增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。25個省份用(yong)(yong)電增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)有所放緩，3個省份用(yong)(yong)電量負增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。發電量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)略低(di)于用(yong)(yong)電量增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)，非(fei)化石能源(yuan)發電量保持(chi)(chi)快速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)發電裝(zhuang)機容量減少。綜(zong)合(he)來看，上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)全(quan)(quan)國電力供(gong)需保持(chi)(chi)平衡。

上半年(nian)，全社(she)會用電量3.4萬(wan)億千瓦時，同比(bi)增長5.0%，增速同比(bi)回落4.4個百(bai)分點。其中(zhong)一(yi)、二季度用電量同比(bi)分別增長5.5%和4.5%，反映出我國經(jing)濟一(yi)季度開局(ju)平穩(wen)，二季度經(jing)濟下行壓力有所增加。

第二產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)顯著下(xia)降(jiang)，第三產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)和居(ju)民用(yong)(yong)(yong)電增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)貢(gong)獻(xian)率大幅上(shang)(shang)升。上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)，第二產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為(wei)3.1%，同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)4.5個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)，第二產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)下(xia)降(jiang)是導致全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)下(xia)降(jiang)的(de)主要原(yuan)因；第三產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、居(ju)民生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)同(tong)比(bi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)9.4%、9.6%，比(bi)第二產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)高出6.3、6.5個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)，第二產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)對用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)貢(gong)獻(xian)率為(wei)42.6%，同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)13.9個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)，第三產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)和居(ju)民生(sheng)活(huo)對用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的(de)貢(gong)獻(xian)率分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)29.5%、27.0%，同(tong)比(bi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)上(shang)(shang)升6.1、7.9個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。用(yong)(yong)(yong)電結構持續優(you)化，反映出產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)結構調整持續深入，民生(sheng)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電需求不斷(duan)釋(shi)放。高耗能行業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電量(liang)平穩增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)為(wei)3.4%，同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)1.7個百(bai)分(fen)(fen)(fen)點(dian)。

大多數省(sheng)(sheng)份用電增(zeng)速(su)放緩(huan)，部(bu)分(fen)(fen)省(sheng)(sheng)份用電量(liang)負(fu)增(zeng)長(chang)。上半年(nian)，31個省(sheng)(sheng)份中25個省(sheng)(sheng)份用電量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)放緩(huan)，僅(jin)西藏（16.6%）、海南（9.9%）、新疆（9.2%）、河北(bei)（7.0%）、山東（3.8%）5個省(sheng)(sheng)份用電增(zeng)速(su)上升(sheng)，同(tong)比分(fen)(fen)別上升(sheng)5.8、1.8、2.4、2.1、0.9個百分(fen)(fen)點。其中上海、甘肅(su)、青海用電量(liang)負(fu)增(zeng)長(chang)，用電量(liang)分(fen)(fen)別減(jian)少(shao)0.1%、0.7%、2.8%。

發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)略低于用電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)，非化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量快速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。上(shang)半年，全國發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)3.3%，同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降5.0個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點，低于用電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)1.7個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點。其中，火電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)僅0.2%，同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降7.8個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點；非化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)12.6%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)同(tong)比(bi)上(shang)升2.4個(ge)(ge)(ge)百分(fen)點，水電(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)及(ji)(ji)太陽能(neng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)同(tong)比(bi)分(fen)別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)11.8%、23.1%%11.5及(ji)(ji)29.1%。

新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)裝機(ji)(ji)規模(mo)大幅減(jian)少，新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)裝機(ji)(ji)仍(reng)以非化石能源(yuan)為(wei)主。上半年(nian)，全國新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)發(fa)電裝機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)4074萬千(qian)瓦，同比減(jian)少1194萬千(qian)瓦，主要由于新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)太陽能發(fa)電裝機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)減(jian)少1417萬千(qian)瓦，其中58.4%的新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)發(fa)電裝機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)為(wei)非化石能源(yuan)發(fa)電裝機(ji)(ji)，占比較(jiao)去年(nian)有所下降，但仍(reng)為(wei)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)發(fa)電裝機(ji)(ji)容量(liang)的主要部分(fen)。

二、下半年電力需求增長走勢分析

經濟增長影響分析

2018年(nian)以來(lai)，美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)政府(fu)(fu)奉行“美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)優先”，針對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)的貿易保護(hu)措施(shi)不(bu)斷升級，2018年(nian)6月(yue)，美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)政府(fu)(fu)公(gong)布(bu)(bu)第(di)一輪(lun)加(jia)征(zheng)關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)措施(shi)，針對(dui)(dui)自中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)進口的500億美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)商(shang)品加(jia)征(zheng)25%的關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)，分(fen)(fen)別于7月(yue)6日(ri)和8月(yue)23日(ri)對(dui)(dui)其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)340億和160億商(shang)品實施(shi)加(jia)征(zheng)關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)。2018年(nian)9月(yue)，美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)政府(fu)(fu)公(gong)布(bu)(bu)第(di)二(er)輪(lun)加(jia)征(zheng)關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)措施(shi)，涉(she)及中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)對(dui)(dui)美(mei)(mei)(mei)出(chu)口絕大多(duo)數行業(ye)，價值2000億美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)，并于9月(yue)24日(ri)起加(jia)征(zheng)關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)稅(shui)(shui)率(lv)為10%。2019年(nian)5月(yue)10日(ri)，美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)將2000億美(mei)(mei)(mei)元(yuan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)商(shang)品加(jia)征(zheng)關(guan)稅(shui)(shui)稅(shui)(shui)率(lv)由10%上調(diao)至25%。在美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)對(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)貿易保護(hu)措施(shi)的影響下(xia)，我國(guo)對(dui)(dui)美(mei)(mei)(mei)出(chu)口下(xia)滑明顯，而且涉(she)美(mei)(mei)(mei)出(chu)口企業(ye)用電(dian)量增長相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)放緩。上半年(nian)，我國(guo)對(dui)(dui)美(mei)(mei)(mei)國(guo)出(chu)口同比減少2.6%，增速(su)(su)同比下(xia)降8.2個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)。從國(guo)網經營(ying)區域來(lai)看，二(er)季度(du)尤其是5月(yue)份中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)美(mei)(mei)(mei)經貿摩(mo)擦加(jia)劇，業(ye)擴凈增容量大幅下(xia)滑。上半年(nian)，涉(she)美(mei)(mei)(mei)出(chu)口企業(ye)售(shou)電(dian)量增速(su)(su)同比下(xia)降10.3個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)，較全行業(ye)售(shou)電(dian)量增速(su)(su)低4.1個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)(fen)點(dian)，直接影響售(shou)電(dian)量約55億千瓦時。

長期來看(kan)，中(zhong)美(mei)(mei)產業關系從互(hu)補走向競(jing)爭，貿易摩擦的(de)根源不(bu)是表面(mian)(mian)上的(de)縮(suo)減逆(ni)差和貿易平(ping)衡，本質是霸權國(guo)家對(dui)新興大國(guo)的(de)戰略遏制。下半年(nian)(nian)，中(zhong)美(mei)(mei)貿易摩擦將進一步升(sheng)級(ji)。8月15日(ri)，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)政(zheng)府宣(xuan)布約3000億(yi)美(mei)(mei)元商(shang)品加(jia)(jia)征10%關稅(shui)，分兩批自2019年(nian)(nian)9月1日(ri)、12月15日(ri)起(qi)實施。在中(zhong)國(guo)實施反(fan)制措施后，美(mei)(mei)國(guo)揚(yang)言，有可能將提高3000億(yi)美(mei)(mei)元稅(shui)率至25%。隨著中(zhong)美(mei)(mei)經貿摩擦不(bu)斷(duan)升(sheng)級(ji)，對(dui)我國(guo)用電量的(de)負面(mian)(mian)影(ying)響進一步加(jia)(jia)深。下一步如果美(mei)(mei)國(guo)對(dui)3000億(yi)美(mei)(mei)元商(shang)品提高關稅(shui)至25%，將拉低2019年(nian)(nian)我國(guo)GDP增速約0.7個(ge)百分點，影(ying)響用電量增長約1.4個(ge)百分點。

整體(ti)來看，下(xia)半(ban)年(nian)，受中美貿易摩擦(ca)影響，我國(guo)經濟發展(zhan)面臨一(yi)定(ding)的壓力和不確定(ding)性(xing)，經濟增(zeng)長動力將主要(yao)來自內需的拉動。7月30日，中共中央政治(zhi)局會議提出保持政策(ce)定(ding)力，推動高(gao)質量(liang)發展(zhan)，不將房地產作(zuo)為短(duan)期刺激(ji)經濟的手段。并提出一(yi)系(xi)(xi)列措(cuo)施(shi)(shi)，包括(kuo)：深挖國(guo)內需求潛(qian)力，有效啟動農(nong)村市場；穩(wen)定(ding)制造業(ye)(ye)投資，實施(shi)(shi)城(cheng)鎮(zhen)老舊(jiu)小區(qu)改(gai)造、城(cheng)市停車場等(deng)補短(duan)板工程(cheng)；采(cai)取具體(ti)措(cuo)施(shi)(shi)支持民營企(qi)業(ye)(ye)發展(zhan)等(deng)。預計(ji)下(xia)半(ban)年(nian)，“補短(duan)板”、“新基(ji)建”等(deng)一(yi)系(xi)(xi)列政策(ce)的實施(shi)(shi)將拉動投資增(zeng)速回升(sheng)；減(jian)稅降費(fei)等(deng)政策(ce)加碼(ma)，消費(fei)增(zeng)速有望企(qi)穩(wen)，國(guo)民經濟有望運行在合理區(qu)間，總體(ti)保持平穩(wen)。

氣候氣溫影響分析

2019年(nian)7-8月份(fen)(fen)(fen)，受(shou)強(qiang)降(jiang)雨、強(qiang)臺風影響，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)氣溫(wen)(wen)低(di)(di)(di)于去年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)，空調(diao)負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)負(fu)(fu)(fu)增長，拉(la)低(di)(di)(di)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)(su)。從7月份(fen)(fen)(fen)來看，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)氣溫(wen)(wen)22.1℃，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)0.8℃；平(ping)(ping)均(jun)高(gao)溫(wen)(wen)日(ri)數5.7天(tian)(tian)，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)減少0.4天(tian)(tian)。據國(guo)家電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)有(you)限(xian)公司電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力供需研究實(shi)驗室測算(suan)，7月份(fen)(fen)(fen)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)降(jiang)溫(wen)(wen)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)比(bi)(bi)減少9.5%，降(jiang)幅同(tong)比(bi)(bi)擴大，占全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的比(bi)(bi)重有(you)所降(jiang)低(di)(di)(di)；氣溫(wen)(wen)因(yin)素拉(la)低(di)(di)(di)全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增長1.6個(ge)百分(fen)點。分(fen)地區看，西南(nan)(nan)、華(hua)(hua)中、華(hua)(hua)東7月份(fen)(fen)(fen)受(shou)持(chi)(chi)續降(jiang)雨影響氣溫(wen)(wen)偏低(di)(di)(di)，全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)月高(gao)溫(wen)(wen)日(ri)數較(jiao)常年(nian)偏少；而去年(nian)同(tong)期(qi)，上述地區大部出現大范(fan)圍(wei)持(chi)(chi)續高(gao)溫(wen)(wen)天(tian)(tian)氣，高(gao)溫(wen)(wen)強(qiang)度強(qiang)、范(fan)圍(wei)廣、持(chi)(chi)續時間(jian)長。因(yin)降(jiang)溫(wen)(wen)負(fu)(fu)(fu)荷未能充分(fen)釋放，西南(nan)(nan)、華(hua)(hua)中、華(hua)(hua)東用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增速(su)(su)低(di)(di)(di)迷。其中重慶、四川、江西、湖(hu)南(nan)(nan)降(jiang)溫(wen)(wen)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)降(jiang)幅超(chao)過30%，重慶、四川、湖(hu)北、湖(hu)南(nan)(nan)、江西、安徽降(jiang)溫(wen)(wen)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)占全(quan)(quan)(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的比(bi)(bi)重降(jiang)低(di)(di)(di)超(chao)過5個(ge)百分(fen)點。

預(yu)計2019冬季，初(chu)步氣(qi)候(hou)預(yu)測氣(qi)溫與常年相當(dang)，預(yu)計采暖電(dian)量平穩增(zeng)長，拉(la)高(gao)全社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)增(zeng)速。

電能替代影響分析

2019年(nian)中(zhong)央經濟(ji)工作會議提出，要打(da)好污(wu)染(ran)(ran)防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)攻(gong)堅(jian)戰，要堅(jian)守(shou)陣地(di)、鞏固成果，聚焦做(zuo)好打(da)贏藍天保衛(wei)戰等工作。2019年(nian)政(zheng)府(fu)工作報告(gao)提出，要持(chi)續推(tui)進污(wu)染(ran)(ran)防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)，鞏固擴大(da)(da)藍天保衛(wei)戰成果，持(chi)續開展京津(jin)冀及周邊、長三角、汾渭平原大(da)(da)氣污(wu)染(ran)(ran)治(zhi)理(li)攻(gong)堅(jian)，加(jia)強工業、燃煤、機動車(che)三大(da)(da)污(wu)染(ran)(ran)源治(zhi)理(li)。做(zuo)好北方(fang)地(di)區清(qing)潔取暖(nuan)工作，確保群眾溫暖(nuan)過冬。實(shi)施電(dian)能(neng)替代是打(da)好污(wu)染(ran)(ran)防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)攻(gong)堅(jian)戰的重要舉措，對于推(tui)動能(neng)源消費革命、促進能(neng)源清(qing)潔化(hua)發展、推(tui)進污(wu)染(ran)(ran)防(fang)(fang)治(zhi)意義(yi)重大(da)(da)。

近(jin)年(nian)來，國(guo)家(jia)和地方政(zheng)府先后出(chu)臺了《關于推(tui)進(jin)(jin)(jin)電能(neng)(neng)替代的(de)(de)指(zhi)導意見(jian)》、《北(bei)方地區(qu)冬季清(qing)潔(jie)取暖規劃(hua)（2017-2021年(nian)）》等(deng)一系列政(zheng)策積極(ji)推(tui)進(jin)(jin)(jin)電能(neng)(neng)替代的(de)(de)有效(xiao)實施，規劃(hua)對(dui)電采暖目標、推(tui)進(jin)(jin)(jin)策略、保障措(cuo)施等(deng)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行了全面部署，提出(chu)到(dao)2021年(nian)帶動新(xin)增電量消費1100億千(qian)瓦時(shi)。2019年(nian)6月，國(guo)家(jia)能(neng)(neng)源局發布了《關于解決“煤改(gai)氣”“煤改(gai)電”等(deng)清(qing)潔(jie)供暖推(tui)進(jin)(jin)(jin)過程中有關問題的(de)(de)通(tong)知》，指(zhi)出(chu)：將以(yi)(yi)運行成本最低為原則，建立(li)完(wan)善的(de)(de)長效(xiao)支(zhi)持(chi)機制，在具備條件(jian)的(de)(de)地區(qu)按照“以(yi)(yi)供定改(gai)”的(de)(de)原則推(tui)廣(guang)天然(ran)氣和電供暖。

電(dian)網企業(ye)積(ji)極(ji)響應(ying)國(guo)家號召(zhao)，在優(you)化(hua)工作(zuo)機(ji)制、爭取(qu)和出臺支持政策(ce)等方面(mian)做了大量(liang)工作(zuo)，全力推(tui)進電(dian)能(neng)替代工作(zuo)，并先后(hou)制定了《北方地(di)區冬季清(qing)潔取(qu)暖電(dian)供暖規劃實(shi)施方案(an)（2017-2021年(nian)）》和《京津冀及周邊地(di)區、汾渭平(ping)原“煤改電(dian)”三年(nian)攻(gong)堅方案(an)（2018-2020年(nian)）》。

方案(an)明確了“煤(mei)改(gai)電”目標(biao)任務，并詳細制定了配套電網建設規模和計(ji)劃，提出：2018～2020年，重(zhong)點區域公司經營區內共(gong)計(ji)528.5萬戶居民、2.4萬個(ge)村、0.7萬個(ge)企事業單位實施電供暖(nuan)改(gai)造(zao)，新增供暖(nuan)面積4.6億平(ping)方米。

其中，“2+26”城(cheng)(cheng)市454.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)戶居(ju)民、1.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)個村、0.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)個企事業(ye)單位實施(shi)電(dian)供(gong)(gong)暖(nuan)改(gai)造，新(xin)增(zeng)供(gong)(gong)暖(nuan)面積4.1億(yi)平方米(mi)；汾渭平原(yuan)城(cheng)(cheng)市73.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)戶居(ju)民、0.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)個村、0.05萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)個企事業(ye)單位實施(shi)電(dian)供(gong)(gong)暖(nuan)改(gai)造，新(xin)增(zeng)供(gong)(gong)暖(nuan)面積0.5億(yi)平方米(mi)。至2020年，重點區(qu)域(yu)“煤(mei)改(gai)電(dian)”清(qing)潔替代電(dian)量達(da)到456億(yi)千(qian)瓦時(shi)，可累(lei)計(ji)減少散燒煤(mei)消耗(hao)2530萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，減排二氧化碳4510萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，累(lei)計(ji)減排二氧化硫、氮氧化物(wu)和粉塵污染物(wu)1430萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸，PM2.5約40萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸。

2019年(nian)(nian)1月，為深入貫(guan)徹落實(shi)《中(zhong)共中(zhong)央、國(guo)務(wu)院(yuan)關(guan)于實(shi)施鄉(xiang)村(cun)振興(xing)戰(zhan)略的意見》和(he)國(guo)家《鄉(xiang)村(cun)振興(xing)戰(zhan)略規劃(hua)（2018年(nian)(nian)-2022年(nian)(nian)）》，大(da)力推(tui)動鄉(xiang)村(cun)電氣化(hua)，促進鄉(xiang)村(cun)能源生產和(he)消費升級(ji)，國(guo)家電網有(you)限(xian)公司(si)印發(fa)了(le)《關(guan)于服務(wu)鄉(xiang)村(cun)振興(xing)戰(zhan)略、大(da)力推(tui)動鄉(xiang)村(cun)電氣化(hua)的意見》。

意見(jian)提(ti)出，從(cong)推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)鄉(xiang)村(cun)全(quan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)景區建(jian)設(she)、民宿(su)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)改(gai)造(zao)、特(te)色(se)產業(ye)(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能應(ying)用等(deng)方(fang)面推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)鄉(xiang)村(cun)產業(ye)(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)，從(cong)推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)鄉(xiang)村(cun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)采(cai)暖、綠色(se)出行、家庭電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)等(deng)方(fang)面推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)生活電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)。到2022年，在(zai)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)產品種植、加(jia)工、鄉(xiang)村(cun)旅游等(deng)方(fang)面建(jian)成一批(pi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)試點示范工程；推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)打造(zao)2萬個(ge)共1萬畝電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)示范大(da)棚，打造(zao)20萬畝全(quan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)蝦稻共生養殖示范基(ji)地；助(zhu)力海產品電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)加(jia)熱(re)(re)育種示范基(ji)地試點建(jian)設(she)，推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)建(jian)設(she)100座電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)孵化(hua)(hua)室；打造(zao)10萬畝農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)田空氣(qi)(qi)(qi)源(yuan)熱(re)(re)泵糧食電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)烘干(gan)(gan)示范基(ji)地，推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)300家大(da)型木材(cai)加(jia)工企業(ye)(ye)實(shi)施(shi)熱(re)(re)泵烘干(gan)(gan)技術改(gai)造(zao)；推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)建(jian)立80個(ge)全(quan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)化(hua)(hua)農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)科(ke)技創新基(ji)地，打造(zao)1000個(ge)能源(yuan)消(xiao)費電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)示范村(cun)鎮(zhen)和全(quan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)景區。農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)、農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)業(ye)(ye)各(ge)領(ling)域電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化(hua)(hua)水(shui)平大(da)幅提(ti)升，農(nong)(nong)(nong)(nong)村(cun)地區電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能占終端能源(yuan)消(xiao)費比(bi)例達到38.5%，在(zai)現有基(ji)礎上(shang)提(ti)高2個(ge)百(bai)分(fen)點。

根據《京津冀(ji)及周(zhou)邊(bian)地區、汾渭(wei)平原“煤(mei)改電(dian)(dian)(dian)”三年攻(gong)堅方案（2018-2020年）》提(ti)出的(de)目標，2019年將推進重(zhong)點區域184萬(wan)戶居(ju)民、0.8萬(wan)個村、0.07萬(wan)個企事業單(dan)位實施電(dian)(dian)(dian)供暖改造，新增供暖面積1.6億平方米。預(yu)計2019年，國(guo)網區域增加采暖電(dian)(dian)(dian)量約(yue)160億千(qian)瓦時。

下半年電力增長研判

下半年(nian)，經(jing)濟繼續保持(chi)平穩運行，國家宏觀(guan)政策逆周(zhou)期調(diao)節效果逐步顯(xian)現，工業生產企(qi)穩回升(sheng)態勢增(zeng)(zeng)強，全(quan)社會(hui)(hui)用(yong)電量增(zeng)(zeng)速將有所(suo)回升(sheng)。預計2019年(nian)全(quan)國全(quan)社會(hui)(hui)用(yong)電量增(zeng)(zeng)速在5%左(zuo)右，增(zeng)(zeng)速較“十三(san)五”前三(san)年(nian)全(quan)社會(hui)(hui)用(yong)電量平均增(zeng)(zeng)速（6.7%）有所(suo)下降，但仍高于“十二五”后兩年(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)速。

三、有關建議

結合上半年電力(li)行業運(yun)行情(qing)況及(ji)下(xia)半年走勢分(fen)析，有以(yi)下(xia)問題需持續(xu)關(guan)注(zhu)：

完善電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)管理(li)(li)機制，全(quan)(quan)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)以(yi)赴(fu)保(bao)障(zhang)(zhang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)安全(quan)(quan)穩定(ding)供(gong)應。下(xia)半年，新(xin)中國(guo)(guo)成(cheng)立(li)70周年、第(di)二屆(jie)中國(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)際(ji)進(jin)口博覽會(hui)、澳門(men)回歸(gui)祖國(guo)(guo)20周年等多項重大(da)活動舉辦(ban)在(zai)即，迎峰(feng)度夏(xia)期間用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)負(fu)荷連創新(xin)高(gao)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)安全(quan)(quan)保(bao)障(zhang)(zhang)難度不斷加大(da)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)管理(li)(li)是保(bao)障(zhang)(zhang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)供(gong)需(xu)平衡和(he)促進(jin)節能減(jian)排的(de)重要手段。隨(sui)著(zhu)國(guo)(guo)家供(gong)給側(ce)結(jie)構性改(gai)革、能源(yuan)革命、電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)改(gai)革、大(da)氣污染防(fang)治等工作的(de)深(shen)入推進(jin)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)管理(li)(li)所面臨的(de)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)環境、環保(bao)壓力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)、技術條件(jian)等也都發生了顯著(zhu)變化。

建(jian)(jian)議一是(shi)加快(kuai)煤炭優(you)質產能釋放(fang)，合理(li)安排運輸(shu)，電(dian)(dian)廠提前增補庫存，進一步增強燃料供(gong)應保障能力(li)；通過火電(dian)(dian)靈活性改造、建(jian)(jian)設(she)調峰電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)等手段加強電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統調峰能力(li)建(jian)(jian)設(she)；合理(li)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)新增電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)、電(dian)(dian)網建(jian)(jian)設(she)，彌補華北(bei)、華東(dong)等地區電(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)缺口(kou)。二(er)是(shi)完善(shan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)(ce)管理(li)機制(zhi)，建(jian)(jian)立電(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)(ce)管理(li)基金，研究(jiu)分析電(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)(ce)管理(li)資源(yuan)(yuan)潛力(li)，研究(jiu)制(zhi)定電(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)(ce)管理(li)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)，指導全國的(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)(ce)管理(li)工作(zuo)有效(xiao)開展；在此基礎上，加強與電(dian)(dian)力(li)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)部門(men)的(de)溝通，堅持“電(dian)(dian)力(li)的(de)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)(ce)即是(shi)用戶的(de)供(gong)給(gei)側(ce)(ce)”原則，將電(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)(ce)管理(li)資源(yuan)(yuan)作(zuo)為“能效(xiao)電(dian)(dian)廠”，納(na)入電(dian)(dian)力(li)規(gui)劃(hua)(hua)。

優化電(dian)(dian)采暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)技(ji)術路徑(jing)，加快推(tui)(tui)進(jin)電(dian)(dian)能替代與北方(fang)地區清潔取(qu)暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)。從清潔取(qu)暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)推(tui)(tui)進(jin)情(qing)況來(lai)看，北方(fang)地區清潔取(qu)暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)實(shi)施(shi)情(qing)況整體良好，超過規劃預期。其中，電(dian)(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)面積增長較(jiao)快，完成情(qing)況良好，可再生能源供(gong)暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)推(tui)(tui)進(jin)較(jiao)慢。由于(yu)(yu)集(ji)中式(shi)電(dian)(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)經濟性較(jiao)低、地方(fang)政府支持政策較(jiao)少(shao)，推(tui)(tui)廣較(jiao)為緩慢，電(dian)(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)以分散式(shi)電(dian)(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)為主(zhu)。2017-2018年，分散式(shi)電(dian)(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)占比(bi)高達89.1%，集(ji)中式(shi)電(dian)(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)僅為10.9%。集(ji)中式(shi)電(dian)(dian)供(gong)暖(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)(nuan)總面積遠落(luo)后于(yu)(yu)2021年8億(yi)平方(fang)米的目標(biao)。

打贏“藍天保衛戰”、加(jia)快(kuai)生(sheng)態文明建(jian)設(she)任務(wu)仍任重(zhong)道遠(yuan)，加(jia)快(kuai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)側清潔替(ti)(ti)代(dai)和用戶側的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能替(ti)(ti)代(dai)是(shi)重(zhong)要(yao)舉措(cuo)。對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能替(ti)(ti)代(dai)而言，要(yao)聚焦工業生(sheng)產、交通運輸(shu)、生(sheng)活(huo)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)等(deng)領域，加(jia)大電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)鍋(guo)爐、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)窯(yao)爐、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車、港口岸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、農(nong)業電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)、家庭電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)等(deng)推廣(guang)力度，提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能占終端能源(yuan)消(xiao)費比(bi)重(zhong)。

針(zhen)對清潔(jie)取暖(nuan)(nuan)推進(jin)過程(cheng)(cheng)存在的(de)(de)問題(ti)，建(jian)議如下：一是深入研(yan)究集(ji)中式電(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)(nuan)實施(shi)路(lu)徑、適用(yong)(yong)范(fan)圍、經濟性以及(ji)政策需求(qiu)，選擇(ze)合理的(de)(de)技術路(lu)線，因地制(zhi)宜推進(jin)集(ji)中式電(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)(nuan)推廣，助力(li)國家目(mu)標的(de)(de)實現。二是結合國家智慧(hui)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)(tong)建(jian)設，充分(fen)(fen)發揮電(dian)(dian)網企(qi)業(ye)與用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)聯系緊密的(de)(de)天然優(you)勢(shi)(shi)，以綜合能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)服務為抓手(shou)，利用(yong)(yong)綜合能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)(tong)能(neng)(neng)效(xiao)和(he)成(cheng)本優(you)勢(shi)(shi)，積極推動工業(ye)園區、商業(ye)樓宇、居民社區的(de)(de)綜合能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)(tong)建(jian)設，有(you)效(xiao)帶動電(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)(nuan)項(xiang)目(mu)的(de)(de)落地實施(shi)。三是政府(fu)要建(jian)立長效(xiao)支(zhi)持政策，持續(xu)出(chu)臺電(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)(nuan)設備補貼(tie)(tie)、運行(xing)費用(yong)(yong)補貼(tie)(tie)、配電(dian)(dian)網投資補貼(tie)(tie)，并確保其中一部分(fen)(fen)資金能(neng)(neng)夠精準投入到(dao)電(dian)(dian)供暖(nuan)(nuan)工程(cheng)(cheng)中。

利用(yong)大(da)數據(ju)(ju)手段密切(qie)跟蹤挖(wa)掘用(yong)電(dian)數據(ju)(ju)，反映(ying)內(nei)外部因素對經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)運行(xing)情況的影響(xiang)。未來(lai)，中美(mei)貿易摩(mo)擦形勢復(fu)雜多(duo)變，對我國(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)發展也(ye)帶(dai)來(lai)一定不(bu)確(que)定性。及(ji)時(shi)、準確(que)的分析宏觀經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)形勢是(shi)中央及(ji)時(shi)出臺(tai)調控政策基礎(chu)。電(dian)力(li)是(shi)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)發展的“晴(qing)雨表、風向標”，分析電(dian)力(li)數據(ju)(ju)，對支撐經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)決(jue)策具有十分重要的意義(yi)。用(yong)電(dian)數據(ju)(ju)監測分析及(ji)預警能(neng)力(li)需進(jin)一步(bu)加(jia)強。當前(qian)，“云(yun)、大(da)、物、移、智(zhi)”等(deng)技術(shu)的發展為(wei)數據(ju)(ju)分析工作提(ti)供(gong)了更科學的手段，應運用(yong)大(da)數據(ju)(ju)思維(wei)，加(jia)強用(yong)電(dian)數據(ju)(ju)及(ji)背后(hou)影響(xiang)因素的挖(wa)掘，為(wei)政府決(jue)策提(ti)供(gong)支撐。

建議一是加強(qiang)(qiang)全(quan)國(guo)及分(fen)地(di)(di)區、分(fen)部門及重點行(xing)業(ye)用(yong)電數據分(fen)析，服務(wu)政府決(jue)策及行(xing)業(ye)發(fa)(fa)展；二是持續完善涉美(mei)出口(kou)企(qi)業(ye)清單，密(mi)切(qie)跟蹤涉美(mei)企(qi)業(ye)用(yong)電情(qing)況、業(ye)擴報裝變化(hua)，強(qiang)(qiang)化(hua)中(zhong)美(mei)貿易(yi)摩擦的影響分(fen)析；三是進一步挖掘(jue)電力數據價值，細化(hua)專題分(fen)析，如(ru)貧困地(di)(di)區用(yong)電情(qing)況分(fen)析、發(fa)(fa)達(da)與欠發(fa)(fa)達(da)地(di)(di)區用(yong)電差異分(fen)析等。