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恰逢A股中(zhong)(zhong)報(bao)季，結合電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)類(lei)上(shang)(shang)市公司相繼披(pi)露的(de)半年報(bao)、上(shang)(shang)半年發電(dian)(dian)量完成情況公告，以及中(zhong)(zhong)電(dian)(dian)聯近日發布(bu)的(de)《2019年上(shang)(shang)半年全(quan)國電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供需形勢分析預測(ce)報(bao)告》（以下簡稱(cheng)《報(bao)告》），市場(chang)可以對(dui)我國電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)發展(zhan)情況及趨勢，乃(nai)至經(jing)濟運行情況進(jin)行一個客觀地了解。

《報告(gao)》顯(xian)示(shi)，上半(ban)年(nian)，全(quan)國全(quan)社會用電量3.40萬億千瓦時、同比(bi)增長(chang)5.0%。記者觀察發現，這一(yi)增長(chang)率較(jiao)2018年(nian)的9.4%，2017年(nian)的6.3%，分別下降了4.4和1.3個百分點(dian)。

雖然中電聯《報告》認為，綜合來看，2019年(nian)上半年(nian)，“全(quan)國(guo)電力生(sheng)產運(yun)行平穩(wen)，電力供需總體平衡，全(quan)社(she)會用電量平穩(wen)增長”。但其也指(zhi)出：“受電價進一步降低、燃料(liao)成(cheng)本持續高位(wei)、可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)補貼嚴重滯后(hou)等因素影響(xiang)，電力企業經營總體仍比較困(kun)難(nan)。”

中(zhong)國微能源網產業(ye)聯盟常務副秘(mi)書長楊琦(qi)在接受(shou)記者采訪時(shi)表示，“電(dian)力企業(ye)經營困難表面(mian)上是因為供(gong)大于求（發電(dian)裝機大于用電(dian)負(fu)荷），實際上則(ze)是與電(dian)力市場的發展(zhan)息息相關。在未來市場實現充分競爭后，發電(dian)企業(ye)只有(you)從(cong)自身生產經營和節能降耗(hao)角(jiao)度(du)入手，不斷降本增效，才(cai)能殺出(chu)一條血路。

發電類上市公司上半年發電量出現分化

記(ji)者梳理了部分(fen)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)類(lei)上(shang)市(shi)公(gong)司披露的(de)中報(bao)業績或上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)完(wan)成(cheng)情況發現(xian)，各公(gong)司上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)出現(xian)了分(fen)化。例如(ru)，2019年(nian)(nian)上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)，A股(gu)華能國(guo)際中國(guo)境內各運行電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠按合并報(bao)表(biao)口徑完(wan)成(cheng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)1953.75億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)比(bi)下降6.15%；完(wan)成(cheng)售電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)1850.32億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)比(bi)下降5.78%。但與(yu)此同(tong)時，根據華能國(guo)際2019年(nian)(nian)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)度報(bao)告，上(shang)半(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)公(gong)司實(shi)現(xian)營業收入834億(yi)元，同(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)0.88%，實(shi)現(xian)歸屬于上(shang)市(shi)公(gong)司股(gu)東的(de)凈利潤(run)38億(yi)元，同(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)79.11%。

據(ju)A股(gu)大唐國際初步(bu)統計，上半年(nian)累計完成發(fa)電量約(yue)1238.57億千瓦時，同比下降(jiang)約(yue)5.22%；累計完成上網(wang)電量約(yue)1168.51億千瓦時，同比下降(jiang)約(yue)5.24%。

A股華電(dian)國(guo)際按照中國(guo)會計(ji)準則財(cai)務報告合并口徑計(ji)算的(de)2019年(nian)上半年(nian)累計(ji)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)為1011.27億千瓦時，比2018年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期增長約(yue)5.54%；上網電(dian)量(liang)完成945.36億千瓦時，比2018年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期增長約(yue)5.66%。企業發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)及上網電(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比增長的(de)主(zhu)要(yao)原因(yin)是本(ben)集團新(xin)投產機組的(de)電(dian)量(liang)貢(gong)獻。截止到6月30日，華電(dian)國(guo)際控股裝機容量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比增長約(yue)8.66%。

A股國電(dian)電(dian)力上半年累計完成發電(dian)量1710.29億千(qian)瓦時(shi)，上網電(dian)量1615.06億千(qian)瓦時(shi)，較去年同期分(fen)別增加(jia)3.15%和2.64%。

H股(gu)中國電力(li)上半年合(he)并總為42261760兆(zhao)瓦(wa)時(shi)，約合(he)422.6176億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)，較去年同期增加(jia)27.70%。

值得注意(yi)的是，各大企(qi)業(ye)發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)出現(xian)(xian)(xian)了分化(hua)現(xian)(xian)(xian)象。上(shang)述公司中有(you)(you)三(san)家(jia)上(shang)半年發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)、售(shou)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)了增長(chang)，兩家(jia)略有(you)(you)下滑(hua)，且其中唯一已披(pi)露半年報的華能國際還實(shi)(shi)現(xian)(xian)(xian)了凈利潤同比(bi)大幅增長(chang)。

楊琦向記者(zhe)介紹(shao)，目(mu)前(qian)我國電(dian)力市場(chang)仍未獲得(de)充分發展，個(ge)別電(dian)力企業容易(yi)貪大(da)求(qiu)全(quan)，追(zhui)求(qiu)資產規模，放棄了資產的(de)投資收(shou)益，忽略了市場(chang)的(de)影響力，思(si)維意識還停留在(zai)國家補貼、保證發電(dian)量上。

多重因素引發電力市場變化

楊(yang)琦認為，國家主動引導產業(ye)轉型、注重(zhong)環境保護等多重(zhong)因素致使高(gao)耗能企業(ye)減產、經濟面臨(lin)下(xia)行壓力(li)，這也是電力(li)增速下(xia)滑(hua)的重(zhong)要(yao)原因。

上述華能國(guo)際在公告中表示，上半(ban)年，全社會用電量(liang)增速(su)較同(tong)(tong)期出現(xian)明顯回落。但與此同(tong)(tong)時，根據《報(bao)告》，2019年上半(ban)年電力(li)發展還受(shou)到了(le)很多因素(su)的影響(xiang)。

例如，上(shang)(shang)(shang)半年(nian)(nian)，我國第(di)一產業用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)為345億千瓦時、同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)5.0%，增(zeng)速比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期降低(di)(di)5.3個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)，占全社會(hui)用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重為1.0%、與上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期持平；第(di)二產業用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)2.31萬億千瓦時、同比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)3.1%，增(zeng)速比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期降低(di)(di)4.5個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)，對全社會(hui)用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長(chang)的貢獻(xian)率為42.6%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期降低(di)(di)13.9個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)；占全社會(hui)用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)的比(bi)(bi)(bi)重為68.0%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期降低(di)(di)1.3個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian)。

但第二產業(ye)(ye)中制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量上半年達到1.72萬億千瓦時(shi)，同比增(zeng)長(chang)3.4%。從制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)幾大類(lei)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)來看，高技術及裝(zhuang)備制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量同比增(zeng)長(chang)3.5%；消費品制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)長(chang)2.1%；四(si)大能源(yuan)消耗密集型產業(ye)(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量同比增(zeng)長(chang)3.4%。

除此(ci)之外，上(shang)(shang)(shang)半年(nian)第三產業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)、城鄉居(ju)民生活用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)繼續保持較快增(zeng)長，第三產業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)達5552億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長9.4%，對(dui)全(quan)(quan)社會(hui)(hui)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長的貢(gong)獻率(lv)為(wei)(wei)29.5%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期提(ti)高6.1個百(bai)(bai)分點。占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)社會(hui)(hui)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重為(wei)(wei)16.3%、比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期提(ti)高0.7個百(bai)(bai)分點；城鄉居(ju)民生活用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)為(wei)(wei)4993億(yi)千瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長9.6%，對(dui)全(quan)(quan)社會(hui)(hui)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)長的貢(gong)獻率(lv)為(wei)(wei)27.0%，比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期提(ti)高7.9個百(bai)(bai)分點；占(zhan)全(quan)(quan)社會(hui)(hui)用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)重為(wei)(wei)14.7%、比(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)期提(ti)高0.6個百(bai)(bai)分點。

上(shang)半年，我(wo)國非(fei)化石能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)也實(shi)現了快速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長。《報(bao)告(gao)》顯示，全國規(gui)模(mo)以上(shang)電(dian)(dian)廠水電(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)5138億(yi)千瓦時、同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長11.8%，核(he)電(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)1600億(yi)千瓦時、同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長23.1%，全口(kou)徑并網風電(dian)(dian)、并網太陽能(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)分別為2145億(yi)千瓦時、1063億(yi)千瓦時，同(tong)比分別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長11.5%、29.1%。相對于此，全國規(gui)模(mo)以上(shang)火電(dian)(dian)廠發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)2.45萬億(yi)千瓦時、同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長0.2%。

《報告》預測，綜(zong)合(he)考慮國內外宏觀經濟形(xing)勢(shi)、電(dian)能替(ti)代、上年(nian)基數、環保安(an)全檢查等因素，今年(nian)下半年(nian)我國電(dian)力消費仍將延續上半年(nian)的平穩增(zeng)長(chang)態勢(shi)，預計2019年(nian)全國全社會用電(dian)量(liang)同比增(zeng)長(chang)5.5%左右。

至2019年(nian)底，全國發電(dian)裝機(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)將達到20億千瓦(wa)左右，同比增長6%；非(fei)化石(shi)能源發電(dian)裝機(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)合計(ji)8.4億千瓦(wa)、占總裝機(ji)容(rong)(rong)量(liang)比重(zhong)上升至42%左右，超(chao)過2020年(nian)39%的規劃目標。