“當前經濟運行穩中有變、變中有憂,外部環境復雜嚴峻,經濟面臨下行壓力,用電量增長不確定性增大。”中國電力企業聯合會專職副理事長兼秘書長于崇德1月29日在接受中國經濟時報記者采訪時表示,綜合考慮國際國內形勢、產業運行和地方發展等以及2018年高基數影響,預計2019年全社會用電量增速將平穩回落。
于崇德預(yu)計,在平水年(nian)、沒有大范圍(wei)極端氣溫影(ying)響(xiang)的(de)情況下(xia),預(yu)計全(quan)年(nian)全(quan)社會用(yong)電量增長5.5%左右。
于崇德認(ren)為,2019年全(quan)國電(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)總體平衡,局部地區部分時(shi)段電(dian)(dian)力供(gong)需(xu)偏緊。新(xin)能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機將(jiang)持(chi)續(xu)增加;第三(san)產(chan)業(ye)和居民生(sheng)活(huo)用電(dian)(dian)比重持(chi)續(xu)提高,拉大系統峰谷(gu)差,時(shi)段性系統調峰能(neng)力不足;電(dian)(dian)煤價格高位運行,發(fa)電(dian)(dian)用煤維持(chi)地區性季節性供(gong)需(xu)偏緊格局。
“在多重因(yin)素疊加、交互影響下,預計全年全國電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)總體(ti)平衡,局(ju)部地區高峰時段電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)偏緊(jin)。”于(yu)崇德分析(xi)表(biao)示,華北、華中(zhong)區域局(ju)部性時段性電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)偏緊(jin);華東區域電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)總體(ti)平衡;南方區域電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)總體(ti)平衡,枯水期廣(guang)西、貴州偏緊(jin),汛期云南清潔能(neng)源(yuan)消納壓力(li)(li)(li)較(jiao)大;東北、西北區域預計電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)應(ying)能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)富余。
結(jie)合電力(li)供(gong)需分析與預測(ce),于崇(chong)德提出如下建議。
堅持(chi)落(luo)實(shi)發展(zhan)(zhan)戰略(lve)規(gui)劃,深入推進電力生產和消費革(ge)命(ming)。重點做好(hao)(hao)規(gui)劃引領、電網架(jia)構(gou)、新能源發展(zhan)(zhan)、核電建設(she)等工作(zuo)。根據“十三五(wu)”規(gui)劃中(zhong)期(qi)評(ping)估結果(guo),及時調整電力發展(zhan)(zhan)節奏和規(gui)劃目標(biao),并抓好(hao)(hao)落(luo)實(shi);盡快啟動“十四五(wu)”規(gui)劃研究工作(zuo)。深化(hua)中(zhong)長期(qi)電網網架(jia)規(gui)劃研究,盡快形成目標(biao)清晰、布局科學、結構(gou)合(he)理、運行高(gao)效、便于(yu)實(shi)施的(de)中(zhong)長期(qi)網架(jia)規(gui)劃。
堅持(chi)深化供(gong)給側結構性改革,提(ti)高清潔高效電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)給能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)。重點加大清潔能(neng)(neng)源消納、電(dian)網(wang)(wang)調節和(he)供(gong)給保障能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)等工作。全力(li)(li)(li)以赴、多措并(bing)舉(ju)實現(xian)清潔能(neng)(neng)源消納目標(biao)。挖(wa)掘潛力(li)(li)(li),著力(li)(li)(li)提(ti)升電(dian)網(wang)(wang)調節能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li),促進供(gong)需(xu)平(ping)衡。完善調峰輔助服務(wu)補償機制(zhi),提(ti)高機組改造積極性,全面推(tui)動煤電(dian)靈活性改造和(he)運行。提(ti)高電(dian)網(wang)(wang)保障電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)應和(he)資源優化配置(zhi)能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)。加快特高壓(ya)配套(tao)電(dian)源核準建(jian)設,提(ti)高現(xian)有特高壓(ya)通道的(de)利(li)用率;著力(li)(li)(li)解(jie)決城鄉(xiang)區(qu)域電(dian)網(wang)(wang)發展不(bu)平(ping)衡問題,繼續推(tui)進配電(dian)網(wang)(wang)、中(zhong)西部地區(qu)農村(cun)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)的(de)建(jian)設,提(ti)升電(dian)網(wang)(wang)供(gong)給保障能(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)。
堅持推進(jin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)市場化(hua)改(gai)(gai)革(ge),提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)消費服(fu)務水平。深(shen)入推進(jin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)體(ti)制改(gai)(gai)革(ge),重點(dian)抓好增量(liang)配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)改(gai)(gai)革(ge)試點(dian)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)傳導(dao)機(ji)制、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)政策(ce)落實、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能替代等。著力(li)(li)(li)推動(dong)增量(liang)配電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)業務改(gai)(gai)革(ge)試點(dian)項目(mu)落地。推動(dong)建立市場化(hua)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)傳導(dao)機(ji)制。全面(mian)落實供電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)營(ying)業區內轉供電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)主體(ti)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)政策(ce)。進(jin)一步(bu)加大電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能替代力(li)(li)(li)度(du),不斷提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)占終端能源消費比重,全力(li)(li)(li)推進(jin)再電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)進(jin)程。
堅持(chi)防范(fan)市場風險,化解電(dian)(dian)力企業經營(ying)困(kun)境。中電(dian)(dian)聯行業發展與環境資源(yuan)(yuan)部副主任薛靜(jing)對記者(zhe)表(biao)示,當前(qian),全國(guo)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)企業虧(kui)損面約為53%,電(dian)(dian)網企業2018年利潤下(xia)降24.3%,應(ying)(ying)重(zhong)點保(bao)障電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)供應(ying)(ying)、落實可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生能源(yuan)(yuan)補貼(tie)資金(jin)等(deng)。她強(qiang)調,保(bao)障電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)價格在(zai)合理區間(jian),加強(qiang)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)運三方中長期(qi)合同(tong)有效監管,確保(bao)合同(tong)履約到(dao)位;進一步(bu)規范(fan)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)定價機制,以電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)價格指數為依據,引導市場合理預(yu)期(qi),控制電(dian)(dian)煤(mei)價格在(zai)合理區間(jian),緩(huan)(huan)解煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)企業經營(ying)困(kun)境。落實可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生能源(yuan)(yuan)補貼(tie)資金(jin),加快(kuai)可(ke)(ke)(ke)再生能源(yuan)(yuan)補貼(tie)目(mu)錄公布和(he)補貼(tie)資金(jin)發放,盡(jin)快(kuai)解決巨(ju)額拖欠問題,緩(huan)(huan)解企業經營(ying)和(he)資金(jin)壓力。