无码日韩精品一区二区免费暖暖,久久精品国产精品亚洲,开心播播网,女人床技48动态图,国产精品无码免费专区午夜

通過招標機制確定電價已成為國際可再生能源定價的趨勢，并帶動了風、光等已實現規模化、商業化應用的可再生能源成本和電價的大幅度下降。本文總結了近兩年國內外風電、太陽能發電招標定價機制的實施進展情況，對比分析了電價水平;利用調研數據，從資源條件、投資運維水平、稅收金融政策等方面分析了影響可再生能源發電成本的關鍵因素以及未來可能的降成本空間，并提出降低我國可再生能源發電成本的政策措施建議。

前言

近(jin)年來，全(quan)球風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)等(deng)可(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)技(ji)術不斷進步、產業快速發(fa)展、應用規(gui)模持(chi)續(xu)擴大(da)，使可(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本顯(xian)著下降。可(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)支持(chi)政策也從高保障性的(de)固定上(shang)網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)機制，向推進其參與市場競爭(zheng)的(de)拍賣(mai)招(zhao)標、溢價(jia)補貼(tie)、綠色電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力證(zheng)書等(deng)多樣化機制轉變(bian)。2014年以來，招(zhao)標機制確(que)定可(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)上(shang)網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)為越來越多的(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家和地區采(cai)用，其實施帶動了風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本和電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)的(de)大(da)幅度下降，部分國(guo)(guo)(guo)家的(de)可(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)招(zhao)標電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)與常規(gui)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)相比(bi)已(yi)經具備了經濟性和市場競爭(zheng)力。我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)在2015～2017年通過(guo)光伏領跑基地進行光伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)和開(kai)發(fa)企業招(zhao)標，2017年又實施首批13個(ge)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)的(de)平價(jia)上(shang)網(wang)(即零(ling)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)補貼(tie))示(shi)范，但(dan)與國(guo)(guo)(guo)際水(shui)平相比(bi)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)內成(cheng)(cheng)本和電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)水(shui)平相對偏(pian)高。本文總結對比(bi)了近(jin)兩(liang)年國(guo)(guo)(guo)內外可(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)招(zhao)標電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)水(shui)平，從資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)條件、投資運(yun)行費用、稅收金融政策等(deng)方面分析了影(ying)響可(ke)再(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)成(cheng)(cheng)本的(de)主要因素(su)，提出降低成(cheng)(cheng)本和電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)的(de)措施建(jian)議。

一、國內外可再生能源發電招標進展和電價水平情況

2017年，全球(qiu)40多(duo)個國家實施了可(ke)再生能源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)招標機制。分(fen)技術看，光伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)招標應用的國家最多(duo)，其次(ci)是陸上風(feng)電(dian)(dian)、海上風(feng)電(dian)(dian)、光熱發(fa)電(dian)(dian)等。

(一)光伏發電

光伏(fu)發電招標(biao)電價(jia)(jia)近年(nian)來屢創新(xin)(xin)低，在(zai)一些(xie)太陽能資(zi)源豐富的(de)國家如智利、印(yin)度(du)等(deng)，光伏(fu)發電已成為所有新(xin)(xin)建電源中電價(jia)(jia)最低的(de)電源。2016年(nian)底，阿聯酋阿布扎比117萬千瓦的(de)光伏(fu)發電項目招標(biao)電價(jia)(jia)2.42美分/千瓦時，考慮(lv)夏季獎勵(li)電價(jia)(jia)后實際電價(jia)(jia)為2.92美分/千瓦時，為當年(nian)全(quan)球最低。

2017年(nian)10月，沙特阿拉(la)伯30萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目最(zui)低競標電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)達(da)到1.786美(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)。2017年(nian)，印度(du)招標電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)最(zui)低為3.8美(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，普遍在(zai)4～5美(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)。美(mei)洲(zhou)地區(qu)，阿根廷(ting)中(zhong)標電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)在(zai)5.5美(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)左右;智(zhi)利(li)中(zhong)標電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)達(da)到2.91美(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi);墨西哥由于(yu)有(you)(you)可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源綠色(se)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力證(zheng)書政(zheng)策，2017年(nian)11月，中(zhong)標電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)低至1.77美(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，即(ji)使加上可(ke)再生(sheng)能(neng)源綠色(se)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力證(zheng)書收益(約3美(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi))，光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目實際收益也僅(jin)折(zhe)合(he)人民幣0.3元/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)左右;美(mei)國光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)購電(dian)(dian)(dian)協(xie)議(PPA)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)也大多(duo)在(zai)5美(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)左右。歐洲(zhou)太陽能(neng)資源條件一般，但通(tong)過招標方式電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)也有(you)(you)顯著下降。德國光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)平(ping)均中(zhong)標電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)從2015年(nian)4月第一輪(lun)的(de)9.10歐分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，逐(zhu)步下降至2017年(nian)10月第九輪(lun)的(de)4.91歐分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，這一水平(ping)已經低于(yu)德國電(dian)(dian)(dian)網平(ping)均購電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)格。

我國自(zi)2015年(nian)開(kai)(kai)始對(dui)光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)(fu)領跑(pao)基(ji)地(di)實施(shi)招(zhao)標(biao)確定(ding)項目(mu)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)企業，自(zi)2016年(nian)對(dui)普(pu)通光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)(fu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)和光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)(fu)領跑(pao)基(ji)金全面(mian)實施(shi)項目(mu)招(zhao)標(biao)確定(ding)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)企業和上網電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)。當年(nian)第(di)二批光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)(fu)領跑(pao)基(ji)地(di)項目(mu)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)有顯著下(xia)降，普(pu)遍低于同地(di)區(qu)光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)(fu)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)標(biao)桿(gan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)15%～35%，大部(bu)分(fen)在0.50～0.75元/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(折(zhe)合(he)7.5～11.5美分(fen)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi))，最(zui)低價(jia)(jia)達到(dao)0.45元/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)。光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)(fu)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)標(biao)桿(gan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)近幾年(nian)也(ye)呈(cheng)現逐年(nian)下(xia)降趨勢，年(nian)降幅在0.1元/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)左右，2017年(nian)為0.65～0.85元/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(折(zhe)合(he)10～13美分(fen)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi))。無論是招(zhao)標(biao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)還是標(biao)桿(gan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)，我國光(guang)(guang)(guang)伏(fu)(fu)(fu)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)水(shui)平均(jun)高于大部(bu)分(fen)國家(jia)的招(zhao)標(biao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)。

(二)光熱發電

2017年(nian)，國際光(guang)(guang)熱發(fa)電的(de)(de)招標電價也進入了快(kuai)速下行(xing)軌(gui)道。6月(yue)(yue)和(he)(he)9月(yue)(yue)，沙特阿拉伯電力工程公(gong)司(ACWAPower)、上海電氣和(he)(he)美(mei)國亮源組(zu)成的(de)(de)聯合(he)體中標迪拜(bai)20萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)和(he)(he)70萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)塔式光(guang)(guang)熱發(fa)電項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)，電價分別為9.45美(mei)分/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時和(he)(he)7.3美(mei)分/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時;美(mei)國SolarＲeserve公(gong)司8月(yue)(yue)以(yi)6美(mei)分/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時的(de)(de)價格中標南(nan)澳15萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)光(guang)(guang)熱發(fa)電項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)，10月(yue)(yue)又以(yi)低于5美(mei)分/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時的(de)(de)電價中標智利光(guang)(guang)熱發(fa)電項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)。我國在2016年(nian)啟(qi)動(dong)了首批20個光(guang)(guang)熱發(fa)電示范(fan)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)，總裝機134.5萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，通過競爭配置確定的(de)(de)統一的(de)(de)示范(fan)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)電價為1.15元/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時。

(三)陸上風電

巴西自2009年(nian)(nian)實(shi)施(shi)(shi)競標(biao)(biao)(biao)機制(zhi)，2014年(nian)(nian)陸(lu)上(shang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)招標(biao)(biao)(biao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)就達(da)到(dao)5.6美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)，其后繼續下降。2017年(nian)(nian)，智利風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)招標(biao)(biao)(biao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)達(da)到(dao)4.52美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)且(qie)低(di)于同期招標(biao)(biao)(biao)的(de)(de)(de)氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。秘(mi)魯風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)招標(biao)(biao)(biao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)為(wei)3.7美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)，低(di)于同期招標(biao)(biao)(biao)的(de)(de)(de)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(4.6美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi))。此外，美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)國風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)PPA價(jia)格也低(di)至2美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)，大部(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)項目在3美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)左右;加(jia)拿大和(he)墨西哥的(de)(de)(de)最低(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別為(wei)6.6美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)和(he)3.62美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)。2017年(nian)(nian)10月，印度100萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目的(de)(de)(de)招標(biao)(biao)(biao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)為(wei)4.1美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)。我國對風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)實(shi)施(shi)(shi)標(biao)(biao)(biao)桿電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)政策，2017年(nian)(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)水(shui)平(ping)為(wei)0.47～0.60元/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)(折合7～9美(mei)(mei)(mei)(mei)分(fen)(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi))，雖然在2017年(nian)(nian)6月開始實(shi)施(shi)(shi)首批(pi)13個風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目的(de)(de)(de)平(ping)價(jia)上(shang)網(即零(ling)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)補貼)示(shi)范，但與(yu)國際(ji)水(shui)平(ping)相(xiang)比，總體上(shang)國內成本和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)水(shui)平(ping)偏高(gao)。

(四)海上風電

國際海(hai)上(shang)風電成(cheng)本和電價(jia)(jia)下(xia)降(jiang)迅速。2017年(nian)(nian)，英(ying)(ying)國批準的(de)將于2022～2023年(nian)(nian)并網發電的(de)海(hai)上(shang)風電電價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)0.0575英(ying)(ying)鎊/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時，且2017年(nian)(nian)英(ying)(ying)國新并網海(hai)上(shang)風電電價(jia)(jia)已經低(di)于核電。2016年(nian)(nian)11月，瑞典能源企業Vattenfall Vindkraft A/S中標丹麥海(hai)上(shang)風電項目，電價(jia)(jia)0.372丹麥克朗(lang)/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(折合5.39美(mei)分/千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時)，成(cheng)為(wei)(wei)截至當時全球海(hai)上(shang)風電最低(di)電價(jia)(jia)。

2017年4月，德(de)國對4個總裝機為(wei)149萬千瓦的海(hai)上風(feng)電項目進(jin)行(xing)招標(biao)，丹麥(mai)東(dong)能(neng)源公司(si)(DONGEnergy)和德(de)國EnBW公司(si)以最低(di)投標(biao)價(jia)中標(biao)，其(qi)中東(dong)能(neng)源的投標(biao)價(jia)為(wei)0，即項目無電價(jia)補(bu)貼，收(shou)益僅來自于電力市場售電。我國目前潮間(jian)帶風(feng)電和近海(hai)風(feng)電的標(biao)桿電價(jia)水平分別為(wei)0.75元(yuan)/千瓦時(shi)和0.85元(yuan)/千瓦時(shi)(折合11.5～13美分/千瓦時(shi))。

二、國內外可再生能源發電成本和電價差異的主要因素分析

比(bi)較上述電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)水平(ping)，可以(yi)(yi)看(kan)出(chu)，我國(guo)可再(zai)生能(neng)源電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)與(yu)國(guo)際(ji)相(xiang)比(bi)整體上處于偏高水平(ping)。表1列出(chu)了根(gen)據調研數(shu)據測算的(de)國(guo)內外部分(fen)光(guang)伏發電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)海上風電(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)的(de)平(ping)準化成本(ben)及構(gou)成。通(tong)過對比(bi)分(fen)析，影響可再(zai)生能(neng)源發電(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)成本(ben)和(he)造成國(guo)內外電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)差(cha)異的(de)因(yin)素(su)主要在以(yi)(yi)下幾(ji)個方面。

(一)資源條件

天然資源(yuan)條(tiao)件(jian)是(shi)(shi)影(ying)響風光等可再生能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)成本和(he)電(dian)(dian)價的(de)(de)最基本因素，也是(shi)(shi)無法改變的(de)(de)基本條(tiao)件(jian)。根據表1，阿根廷(ting)光伏發電(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)年(nian)(nian)太陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)總(zong)輻射量約2350千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)/平方(fang)米，是(shi)(shi)我國(guo)I類太陽(yang)(yang)能(neng)資源(yuan)區(qu)的(de)(de)1.25倍(bei)，資源(yuan)條(tiao)件(jian)帶來的(de)(de)成本差距達20%～30%。德國(guo)近(jin)海(hai)風電(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)的(de)(de)單位千(qian)瓦(wa)投資、年(nian)(nian)單位千(qian)瓦(wa)運(yun)維(wei)費分別(bie)是(shi)(shi)我國(guo)東部沿海(hai)地區(qu)近(jin)海(hai)風電(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)的(de)(de)2.3倍(bei)、2.6倍(bei)，但前者(zhe)風電(dian)(dian)年(nian)(nian)等效利用小時(shi)數(shu)是(shi)(shi)后者(zhe)的(de)(de)1.9倍(bei)，最終(zhong)使(shi)兩(liang)個并網時(shi)間相(xiang)差三年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)項(xiang)目(mu)的(de)(de)度電(dian)(dian)成本相(xiang)差不大(da)。

(二)初始投資

初(chu)(chu)始(shi)(shi)(shi)投(tou)資(zi)主要取決于(yu)設備和(he)原(yuan)材料價格、土地(di)成本以及人(ren)工費用等。2017年(nian)下半年(nian)國(guo)內(nei)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)和(he)風電(dian)的初(chu)(chu)始(shi)(shi)(shi)投(tou)資(zi)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)在6500元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)和(he)7200元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左右，高于(yu)國(guo)外招標項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)約(yue)10%。以阿聯酋(qiu)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)為例，其招標電(dian)價創下了低(di)(di)于(yu)3美分/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)的2016年(nian)世界紀錄，其中一個(ge)關鍵因(yin)素就是單位(wei)(wei)總投(tou)資(zi)折合人(ren)民(min)(min)幣低(di)(di)于(yu)5000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。阿聯酋(qiu)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)預(yu)期并網發(fa)電(dian)時(shi)間為2019年(nian)上半年(nian)，而2017年(nian)歐洲光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)單位(wei)(wei)投(tou)資(zi)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)已經折合人(ren)民(min)(min)幣5000～5500元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，在未來(lai)一年(nian)多(duo)的時(shi)間內(nei)投(tou)資(zi)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)還有(you)可能下降(jiang)(jiang)，再(zai)加上阿聯酋(qiu)項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)規模(mo)大(單體項(xiang)目(mu)(mu)裝機(ji)117萬千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa))，因(yin)此低(di)(di)于(yu)5000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)的初(chu)(chu)始(shi)(shi)(shi)投(tou)資(zi)水(shui)(shui)平(ping)是可行的。降(jiang)(jiang)低(di)(di)初(chu)(chu)始(shi)(shi)(shi)投(tou)資(zi)可以有(you)效降(jiang)(jiang)低(di)(di)發(fa)電(dian)成本和(he)電(dian)價，僅按(an)照(zhao)國(guo)內(nei)現有(you)的政(zheng)策條件，若光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)單位(wei)(wei)初(chu)(chu)始(shi)(shi)(shi)投(tou)資(zi)從(cong)目(mu)(mu)前的6500元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)降(jiang)(jiang)低(di)(di)到5000元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，我國(guo)I類地(di)區的光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)電(dian)價可以由目(mu)(mu)前的0.55元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)降(jiang)(jiang)至(zhi)0.43元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)。

(三)政策

政策對可再(zai)生能源發電項(xiang)目成本和價(jia)格(ge)的影響最大，具體包(bao)括購電協議(yi)、貸款、稅收、土地(di)、并網等政策。

一是購電(dian)(dian)協議期限。通常(chang)購電(dian)(dian)協議期限越長(chang)，平(ping)準化成(cheng)本越低，目前國(guo)外項目的購電(dian)(dian)協議期限為(wei)15年至25年不(bu)等，我國(guo)可再(zai)生能源標桿電(dian)(dian)價(jia)的執行(xing)期限一般為(wei)20年，購電(dian)(dian)協議或電(dian)(dian)價(jia)政(zheng)策執行(xing)期限帶來的國(guo)內外成(cheng)本差距(ju)相(xiang)對較小(xiao)。

二是貸款(kuan)(kuan)利(li)率(lv)。貸款(kuan)(kuan)利(li)率(lv)對項目(mu)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)影響較大(da)，墨西哥、阿聯(lian)酋、阿根廷以及歐洲一些國家的可(ke)再生能(neng)源項目(mu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)貸款(kuan)(kuan)利(li)率(lv)普遍在2.5%以內，相應(ying)的光伏發電財(cai)務(wu)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)折合人(ren)民幣(bi)0.03～0.05元/千(qian)瓦時。而我國目(mu)前15年(nian)(nian)(nian)長(chang)期(qi)貸款(kuan)(kuan)年(nian)(nian)(nian)利(li)率(lv)為4.9%，由(you)此帶來的財(cai)務(wu)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)達10分(fen)/千(qian)瓦時以上。若(ruo)我國15年(nian)(nian)(nian)長(chang)期(qi)貸款(kuan)(kuan)的年(nian)(nian)(nian)利(li)率(lv)在4.9%的基礎(chu)上下調1.5個百分(fen)點，則可(ke)再生能(neng)源企業(ye)的財(cai)務(wu)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)可(ke)下降(jiang)1/4左(zuo)(zuo)右;若(ruo)進一步下降(jiang)至國際上2.5%左(zuo)(zuo)右的水平，則相應(ying)的財(cai)務(wu)成(cheng)本(ben)(ben)可(ke)以控制(zhi)在0.05元/千(qian)瓦時左(zuo)(zuo)右。

三(san)是稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)。以光(guang)伏發(fa)電為例(li)，國際上招標項目(mu)的稅(shui)(shui)(shui)收水(shui)平(ping)折合(he)人民幣(bi)0.02～0.05元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時，阿布扎比招標項目(mu)更(geng)是完全免(mian)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)，而目(mu)前我(wo)(wo)國企業需繳納(na)17%的增(zeng)值稅(shui)(shui)(shui)、10%的增(zeng)值稅(shui)(shui)(shui)附(fu)加以及(ji)25%的企業所得(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)(可再生能源發(fa)電可享受“三(san)免(mian)三(san)減(jian)半”所得(de)稅(shui)(shui)(shui)優(you)惠)，發(fa)電成本(ben)中(zhong)各項稅(shui)(shui)(shui)負合(he)計0.08～0.09元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時。目(mu)前我(wo)(wo)國對光(guang)伏發(fa)電實施增(zeng)值稅(shui)(shui)(shui)50%即(ji)(ji)征即(ji)(ji)退政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)，但(dan)這(zhe)一優(you)惠政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)將于2018年底到期，即(ji)(ji)使考(kao)慮政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)可延續(xu)，各類稅(shui)(shui)(shui)負也至少(shao)為0.06元/千(qian)(qian)瓦時，仍相(xiang)對偏高(gao)。

四是土(tu)地(di)(di)費用(yong)。目前(qian)國(guo)(guo)(guo)際(ji)上(shang)除阿布扎比招(zhao)標項(xiang)目免(mian)收土(tu)地(di)(di)使(shi)用(yong)費外，很多國(guo)(guo)(guo)家的土(tu)地(di)(di)費用(yong)折合成本(ben)大多在人民(min)幣0.01元(yuan)(yuan)/千瓦時(shi)(shi)左右，而(er)我國(guo)(guo)(guo)的年土(tu)地(di)(di)使(shi)用(yong)費(按400元(yuan)(yuan)/畝年考慮)加上(shang)初始征地(di)(di)和植被補償費用(yong)后可(ke)達0.02～0.03元(yuan)(yuan)/千瓦時(shi)(shi)，個(ge)別地(di)(di)區高(gao)至0.05元(yuan)(yuan)/千瓦時(shi)(shi)。土(tu)地(di)(di)使(shi)用(yong)費用(yong)對可(ke)再生能源發電成本(ben)影響較大。若光伏發電年土(tu)地(di)(di)使(shi)用(yong)費由400元(yuan)(yuan)/畝年降至200元(yuan)(yuan)/畝年，我國(guo)(guo)(guo)I類地(di)(di)區光伏發電度電成本(ben)可(ke)下降至少0.01元(yuan)(yuan)/千瓦時(shi)(shi)。

五是并網(wang)政策。國際(ji)上可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發電項目支付的(de)(de)并網(wang)費用在總(zong)投(tou)資中的(de)(de)占比約為1%～3%，而我國需要支付的(de)(de)并網(wang)費用占總(zong)投(tou)資的(de)(de)5%左右。若嚴格(ge)執行(xing)《可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)法(fa)》和相關法(fa)規，清(qing)楚地劃分可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)開發企業和電網(wang)企業的(de)(de)投(tou)資責任，則我國可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發電的(de)(de)度電成本和電價可(ke)降低0.01～0.02元/千瓦時(shi)。

整體上看，在(zai)影響(xiang)可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發電成(cheng)(cheng)本和造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)國(guo)內外電價(jia)差異的(de)(de)各項(xiang)因素中，初始(shi)投資(zi)(zi)、運行費用、購電協議期限等帶來的(de)(de)差別(bie)不大，客觀上的(de)(de)自然資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)差異對發電成(cheng)(cheng)本造(zao)成(cheng)(cheng)了(le)一定的(de)(de)影響(xiang)，而貸(dai)款、稅收、土(tu)地、并網等方面的(de)(de)支持政(zheng)策(ce)才是降低成(cheng)(cheng)本空間的(de)(de)主要因素。以光伏發電為(wei)(wei)(wei)例(li)，阿布扎(zha)比和我(wo)國(guo)I類(lei)地區典型項(xiang)目按(an)實(shi)際條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)測算的(de)(de)電價(jia)折合人民幣分別(bie)為(wei)(wei)(wei)0.20元(yuan)/千瓦(wa)時(shi)、0.55元(yuan)/千瓦(wa)時(shi)，但若按(an)我(wo)國(guo)I類(lei)地區的(de)(de)太陽能(neng)(neng)資(zi)(zi)源(yuan)條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)、2017年國(guo)內光伏發電投資(zi)(zi)和運維水平、阿布扎(zha)比項(xiang)目的(de)(de)政(zheng)策(ce)條(tiao)件(jian)(jian)進行測算，相應的(de)(de)電價(jia)則僅為(wei)(wei)(wei)0.31元(yuan)/千瓦(wa)時(shi)。

三、降低可再生能源發電成本政策措施建議

為切(qie)實(shi)降低國內(nei)可再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)發電的成(cheng)本和(he)電價(jia)，需要重點從兩個方面入手(shou):一是持續以技術進(jin)(jin)步和(he)產業升級推進(jin)(jin)成(cheng)本下(xia)降;二是實(shi)施(shi)與可再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)發展(zhan)相適應的政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)，盡快消(xiao)除附加在可再(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)發電上的不合理費用，清除不合理政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)。具體政(zheng)策(ce)(ce)措(cuo)施(shi)建議如下(xia)。

(一)持續實施競爭機制，推動技術進步與產業升級

對技術(shu)(shu)成(cheng)熟和(he)實(shi)現規模化發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)技術(shu)(shu)采用競(jing)爭招(zhao)標機(ji)制是國(guo)際趨勢，我(wo)國(guo)采用競(jing)爭招(zhao)標機(ji)制有利于穩定可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)發(fa)展(zhan)節奏(zou)、優化布局、達成(cheng)國(guo)家2020年和(he)2030年非(fei)化石能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)展(zhan)目標。通過招(zhao)標可(ke)以(yi)了解成(cheng)本和(he)價格需求(qiu)，推進技術(shu)(shu)進步、產(chan)業升(sheng)級、降低(di)成(cheng)本，以(yi)更低(di)的(de)成(cheng)本實(shi)現清潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉型。

建議根據2017年首(shou)批風(feng)(feng)電(dian)無(wu)補貼(tie)(tie)試(shi)點(dian)實(shi)施效果(guo)，“十三五”期間(jian)持續實(shi)施風(feng)(feng)電(dian)無(wu)補貼(tie)(tie)試(shi)點(dian)，擴大試(shi)點(dian)范圍和規模，適時(shi)開展光伏發(fa)電(dian)無(wu)補貼(tie)(tie)試(shi)點(dian)。推行以(yi)競(jing)爭機制降低陸上風(feng)(feng)電(dian)、光伏發(fa)電(dian)開發(fa)成本(ben)，通過電(dian)價(jia)或補貼(tie)(tie)水(shui)平(ping)招標(biao)選擇項目業主，消除地方性的不(bu)合(he)理(li)費用，消除政策(ce)實(shi)施障礙。根據無(wu)補貼(tie)(tie)試(shi)點(dian)和競(jing)爭電(dian)價(jia)情況，及時(shi)調(diao)整(zheng)電(dian)價(jia)和補貼(tie)(tie)退(tui)坡幅度，實(shi)現2020年風(feng)(feng)電(dian)與當地燃煤發(fa)電(dian)同平(ping)臺(tai)競(jing)爭、光伏發(fa)電(dian)電(dian)價(jia)水(shui)平(ping)在2015年基礎(chu)上下降50%以(yi)上以(yi)及在用電(dian)側實(shi)現平(ping)價(jia)上網的目標(biao)。

(二)規范政策實施，消除可再生能源發電非技術成本

風、光等可再(zai)(zai)生能源(yuan)作為清潔和運營(ying)期零(ling)碳的(de)能源(yuan)，在目(mu)前化石能源(yuan)開采和利用、碳排放(fang)和污(wu)染物排放(fang)等負外部(bu)性未能完全納入成(cheng)(cheng)本的(de)情況(kuang)下，應該得(de)到差別化的(de)電(dian)價政策支持。但另一(yi)方(fang)面，不能因(yin)為可再(zai)(zai)生能源(yuan)發電(dian)得(de)到了國家政策支持，各個(ge)方(fang)面就將其視為“唐僧肉”，必須規范實施政策，消除附加(jia)在可再(zai)(zai)生能源(yuan)發電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本上的(de)不合理因(yin)素，降低非技術成(cheng)(cheng)本。

一是(shi)降低(di)并網(wang)(wang)(wang)成本，嚴(yan)格按照《可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)法》和相(xiang)關(guan)規(gui)定，劃(hua)分(fen)開發企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)和電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)投資責任。二是(shi)降低(di)用(yong)地成本，嚴(yan)格執行國(guo)務院《促進光(guang)(guang)伏產業(ye)(ye)健康發展的(de)(de)若干(gan)意見(jian)》等國(guo)家有關(guan)政(zheng)策規(gui)定，結(jie)合可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)土地使(shi)用(yong)的(de)(de)特(te)殊性(xing)，細化土地使(shi)用(yong)政(zheng)策，明確土地使(shi)用(yong)類別以(yi)及(ji)相(xiang)應的(de)(de)征地補償、年(nian)使(shi)用(yong)費用(yong)標準，并規(gui)范執行、加(jia)(jia)強監管。三是(shi)嚴(yan)格禁止地方性(xing)不合理附(fu)加(jia)(jia)費用(yong)，如不能將可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)項目本體(ti)投資外的(de)(de)附(fu)加(jia)(jia)投資強加(jia)(jia)給開發企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)，在與礦山(shan)等廢棄土地治(zhi)理的(de)(de)可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)項目中，土地預處理及(ji)費用(yong)等需要(yao)在項目開發之前解決，不應由開發企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)承(cheng)擔(dan)。四是(shi)積極采取措施，逐步(bu)減少(shao)棄風(feng)棄光(guang)(guang)比(bi)例(li)和縮小(xiao)(xiao)棄風(feng)棄光(guang)(guang)范圍，切實(shi)(shi)落實(shi)(shi)可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)全(quan)(quan)額(e)保障性(xing)收購制(zhi)度。對最低(di)保障性(xing)小(xiao)(xiao)時數以(yi)內(nei)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)量，電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)必須全(quan)(quan)額(e)全(quan)(quan)價收購;保障性(xing)小(xiao)(xiao)時數以(yi)內(nei)的(de)(de)限電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)量，應要(yao)求電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)(wang)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)“照付不議”支(zhi)付電(dian)(dian)費。五是(shi)盡快解決可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)(sheng)能源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)價補貼拖欠問題。

(三)創新實施適合可再生能源發展的政策機制

一是結合電(dian)(dian)力體制改革，落實和(he)做好分布式(shi)(shi)(shi)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)參與市場化(hua)交易試(shi)點工作;二是創新信貸(dai)政(zheng)策(ce)，克服融(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)障礙，解決(jue)民營開(kai)發企業和(he)分布式(shi)(shi)(shi)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)發項目(mu)實際貸(dai)款利率偏高問題(ti)。降(jiang)低(di)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)成本，通過增信方式(shi)(shi)(shi)降(jiang)低(di)分布式(shi)(shi)(shi)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)項目(mu)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)成本，采取綠色金融(rong)(rong)和(he)項目(mu)股權(quan)債權(quan)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)等方式(shi)(shi)(shi)降(jiang)低(di)大型電(dian)(dian)站融(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)成本。三是實施(shi)稅(shui)收(shou)政(zheng)策(ce)。如在經(jing)濟較(jiao)為發達的東(dong)中部(bu)，探索實施(shi)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)所(suo)得稅(shui)減免或(huo)稅(shui)收(shou)返還，明確光伏發電(dian)(dian)50%即(ji)征即(ji)退增值稅(shui)政(zheng)策(ce)為長效政(zheng)策(ce)。四是盡(jin)快(kuai)(kuai)推(tui)出可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力配額制和(he)綠色證書(shu)強制交易，近期緩(huan)解、中期最終解決(jue)可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)補貼資(zi)(zi)金缺口以及限電(dian)(dian)問題(ti)，保障可(ke)再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)價與成本同步下降(jiang)并盡(jin)快(kuai)(kuai)實現補貼政(zheng)策(ce)退出。