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近日(ri)，中(zhong)信證(zheng)券發布最新(xin)研報表(biao)示，新(xin)疆地區新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)市場化改革實施方案出臺，存(cun)量(liang)項(xiang)目(mu)機(ji)制電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)保障性較(jiao)好(hao)，而(er)增量(liang)項(xiang)目(mu)機(ji)制電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)下限較(jiao)低，預計后續實際(ji)向0.150元/千瓦時下限靠攏(long)概率(lv)較(jiao)高(gao)；新(xin)疆地區風光(guang)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)稟賦優勢突出，在(zai)機(ji)制電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)明確(que)后，當地新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)項(xiang)目(mu)的盈利能(neng)力(li)將主要(yao)取決于限電(dian)(dian)(dian)率(lv)情況；考慮現階段消納(na)存(cun)在(zai)壓力(li)且出力(li)曲線(xian)分(fen)布極其不均，預計新(xin)疆增量(liang)光(guang)伏項(xiang)目(mu)所面臨壓力(li)將明顯高(gao)于風電(dian)(dian)(dian)。

全文如下：

公用環保｜新疆風(feng)光價改(gai)落地，增量光伏面臨電價壓力(li)

新(xin)疆地(di)區(qu)新(xin)能源(yuan)電價(jia)市場化(hua)改革實(shi)施方案出(chu)臺，存量項(xiang)目(mu)機制(zhi)(zhi)電價(jia)保障性較(jiao)好，而增量項(xiang)目(mu)機制(zhi)(zhi)電價(jia)下(xia)限(xian)較(jiao)低，我們預計(ji)后(hou)續實(shi)際向0.150元(yuan)/千瓦時下(xia)限(xian)靠攏概率(lv)較(jiao)高；新(xin)疆地(di)區(qu)風(feng)光資源(yuan)稟賦優勢突出(chu)，在(zai)機制(zhi)(zhi)電價(jia)明(ming)確后(hou)，當地(di)新(xin)能源(yuan)項(xiang)目(mu)的盈利能力(li)將主要(yao)取決于限(xian)電率(lv)情況；考慮現階(jie)段消納存在(zai)壓力(li)且出(chu)力(li)曲(qu)線分布極其(qi)不均，我們預計(ji)新(xin)疆增量光伏項(xiang)目(mu)所面臨壓力(li)將明(ming)顯高于風(feng)電。

▍事件：

近日，新疆發(fa)改委印發(fa)《自治(zhi)區貫徹落(luo)實(shi)深化新能源(yuan)上網電(dian)價市場化改革實(shi)施方案（試行）》，落(luo)實(shi)136號文，出臺省內新能源(yuan)全面市場化具體(ti)細則。

▍存(cun)量(liang)及增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)機制(zhi)電(dian)價差異較大，增(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)項目或更多向指導區間下限靠攏。

2025年6月1日(ri)前投(tou)(tou)產的存量含補(bu)項(xiang)目機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)0.25元(yuan)/千(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)(shi)，機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量比例(li)為(wei)(wei)其(qi)上網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量的30%；存量平(ping)價(jia)(jia)項(xiang)目機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)0.262元(yuan)/千(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)(shi)，機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量比例(li)為(wei)(wei)其(qi)上網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量的50%。2025年6月1日(ri)及以后投(tou)(tou)產的增(zeng)(zeng)量項(xiang)目，機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)需通過競價(jia)(jia)形(xing)成，機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量比例(li)暫(zan)為(wei)(wei)其(qi)上網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量的50%，增(zeng)(zeng)量項(xiang)目采用邊際出清方(fang)式、風光分類型競價(jia)(jia)形(xing)成機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)，競價(jia)(jia)區(qu)間暫(zan)定0.150~0.262元(yuan)/千(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)(shi)。目前新(xin)疆地區(qu)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)基準(zhun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)(wei)0.262元(yuan)/千(qian)瓦時(shi)(shi)(shi)，存量含補(bu)和平(ping)價(jia)(jia)項(xiang)目機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)略低于或者等于基準(zhun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)，考慮新(xin)疆現階段新(xin)能源消納壓力(li)(li)較(jiao)大，后續增(zeng)(zeng)量項(xiang)目機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)在競價(jia)(jia)形(xing)成過程中，其(qi)向區(qu)間下限靠攏(long)概率較(jiao)高，其(qi)中光伏因出力(li)(li)高度集中的原(yuan)因而向下限靠攏(long)更(geng)加突出。

▍電價機制明確后，新疆區(qu)域后續項(xiang)目盈利的核心因素取決于(yu)限電率(lv)。

新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)地(di)區(qu)風光(guang)(guang)資源(yuan)稟賦優勢突出，近年(nian)(nian)來新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)裝機增長迅(xun)速(su)，截止2024年(nian)(nian)底，新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)地(di)區(qu)風光(guang)(guang)裝機規(gui)模已(yi)(yi)(yi)分別增至(zhi)4708/4872萬千瓦，風光(guang)(guang)上網電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)分別為708/380億(yi)千瓦時，風光(guang)(guang)在2024年(nian)(nian)新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)中占比已(yi)(yi)(yi)經(jing)增至(zhi)25.7%。受裝機高速(su)增長影響，新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)地(di)區(qu)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)消納壓力(li)(li)已(yi)(yi)(yi)有明(ming)顯抬(tai)頭，2025年(nian)(nian)4月，新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)地(di)區(qu)的(de)(de)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)(guang)伏利用(yong)(yong)率已(yi)(yi)(yi)經(jing)分別降低至(zhi)88.9%/88.0%，雙雙跌(die)破(po)90%。考慮非(fei)機制電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)部分以及(ji)增量(liang)項(xiang)目的(de)(de)機制電(dian)(dian)(dian)價均取決于市場(chang)供需，且風光(guang)(guang)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)作(zuo)為高經(jing)營杠桿行(xing)業對于利用(yong)(yong)小時極為敏感，在電(dian)(dian)(dian)價機制明(ming)確后，限電(dian)(dian)(dian)情(qing)況如何將成為區(qu)域(yu)內項(xiang)目盈(ying)利核(he)心的(de)(de)影響因(yin)素。因(yin)目前(qian)新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)區(qu)域(yu)內消納已(yi)(yi)(yi)有壓力(li)(li)且光(guang)(guang)伏出力(li)(li)曲(qu)線(xian)分布極其不均衡，我們預計(ji)新(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)增量(liang)光(guang)(guang)伏項(xiang)目所面臨壓力(li)(li)將明(ming)顯高于風電(dian)(dian)(dian)。

▍風險因素：

整(zheng)體用電(dian)需(xu)求受限；新(xin)能源消納壓力上升(sheng)(sheng)；新(xin)能源市場交易(yi)電(dian)價大幅(fu)下降、新(xin)能源投(tou)資成本(ben)上升(sheng)(sheng)等。

▍投資策略。

隨(sui)著新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)市場(chang)化改(gai)(gai)革推進(jin)以及各省市風(feng)光消納壓力普(pu)遍(bian)抬頭，電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)改(gai)(gai)革過(guo)程(cheng)中將伴隨(sui)著風(feng)光平(ping)均(jun)銷售電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)下(xia)降和新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)行業(ye)(ye)陣痛；與(yu)此同(tong)時(shi)，推動市場(chang)化改(gai)(gai)革的(de)(de)推進(jin)也(ye)對(dui)行業(ye)(ye)恢復(fu)投資理性(xing)，更早回歸市場(chang)平(ping)衡帶(dai)來(lai)積極作用。估值已經明顯破(po)凈、對(dui)于(yu)消納風(feng)險已經有較(jiao)充(chong)分反應的(de)(de)H股(gu)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)運營商(shang)有望(wang)隨(sui)著行業(ye)(ye)逐步出清而迎來(lai)配置機遇。與(yu)此同(tong)時(shi)，在新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)市場(chang)化過(guo)程(cheng)中，具備調節(jie)能(neng)力的(de)(de)火電(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)等(deng)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)也(ye)有望(wang)從中受(shou)益。