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日(ri)前(qian)，國家電(dian)網副(fu)總(zong)工程師兼國網能(neng)源(yuan)研究院執行董事（院長）、黨委書記歐陽昌裕在《中國電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)報》刊(kan)發了《深入實施能(neng)源(yuan)安全(quan)新戰略(lve)加快構建(jian)新型(xing)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系統》的文章(zhang)(zhang)，文章(zhang)(zhang)分(fen)析指出，當前(qian)光(guang)伏(fu)發電(dian)在全(quan)國大部分(fen)地(di)區(qu)參與(yu)平衡能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)為0，新增風光(guang)裝(zhuang)機(ji)比重約1:4，按此趨勢發展午間消納問題難以(yi)解決，需要(yao)優化調整新能(neng)源(yuan)結構和布(bu)局；同時(shi)要(yao)加強對(dui)能(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)規劃(hua)與(yu)產業規劃(hua)協調性研究，重點加強以(yi)地(di)區(qu)間產業轉移協同推(tui)進(jin)新能(neng)源(yuan)生產布(bu)局優化。

文章表示：優化(hua)(hua)調整新能源(yuan)結構(gou)和布(bu)局十(shi)分重要，當前新增風光(guang)裝機比重約1:4，按此(ci)趨勢發展(zhan)午間(jian)消(xiao)納(na)問題難以(yi)解(jie)決，跨區(qu)調節(jie)互濟也面臨送受(shou)端特性趨同現象(xiang)。高度(du)重視“就(jiu)近平衡”，優先發展(zhan)具(ju)有“兩自四(si)化(hua)(hua)”（自平衡、自安(an)全，小微化(hua)(hua)、綠色化(hua)(hua)、數智化(hua)(hua)、共享化(hua)(hua)）特征的自治型分布(bu)式新能源(yuan)系(xi)統，與廣域大系(xi)統深度(du)共融發展(zhan)。此(ci)外(wai)，在(zai)“三北”地區(qu)加快(kuai)(kuai)推進光(guang)熱電站發展(zhan)、盡快(kuai)(kuai)實現規模化(hua)(hua)，提升競爭力。

全文如下：

深入實施能源安全新戰略加快構建新型電力系統

國家電(dian)網副總工程師(shi)兼國網能(neng)源(yuan)研究院執行董事（院長(chang)）、黨委書(shu)記(ji)歐陽昌裕

作為(wei)(wei)世界最(zui)大的(de)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費國(guo)，如何有效保障(zhang)國(guo)家能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)安全和經濟社會(hui)發(fa)展，始終是我國(guo)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展的(de)首要(yao)問題。2014年6月，以習近平同志為(wei)(wei)核心(xin)的(de)黨中央創造性提(ti)出“四個(ge)革命、一個(ge)合作”能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)安全新戰略，既為(wei)(wei)我國(guo)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)展明確了(le)戰略方向(xiang)，又(you)為(wei)(wei)我國(guo)統(tong)籌能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)高(gao)質量發(fa)展和高(gao)水平安全提(ti)供了(le)根本遵循，還為(wei)(wei)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)改革發(fa)展向(xiang)縱(zong)深推進(jin)提(ti)供了(le)科學(xue)方法論。

十年來，我國能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)保障(zhang)基礎不斷夯實，多元(yuan)清潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供應(ying)體系基本建成，能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全(quan)得到有效(xiao)保障(zhang)；能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)技術(shu)裝備水平快速提升(sheng)，新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)等作為(wei)“新三樣”代表(biao)的(de)(de)高技術(shu)產業發(fa)展取得重大成果；能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)國際合作全(quan)方位加強，開放(fang)共贏(ying)的(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)新格局加快形成；能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)體制(zhi)機制(zhi)改革(ge)深入(ru)推進(jin)，能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)治理效(xiao)能(neng)(neng)(neng)充分釋(shi)放(fang)。著眼未(wei)來，新一輪科(ke)技革(ge)命和(he)產業變革(ge)深入(ru)發(fa)展，能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全(quan)態勢日趨(qu)復雜(za)嚴峻，發(fa)展過(guo)程中(zhong)的(de)(de)高度不確(que)定(ding)性正在形成常態。強化戰略規(gui)劃(hua)引領，加快構建新型電力系統，將成為(wei)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)高質(zhi)量發(fa)展和(he)保障(zhang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安(an)全(quan)的(de)(de)重要抓手。

世界百年未有之大變局下，能源安全態勢嚴峻，大力發展新能源是保障國家能源安全的重要抓手。

當前來看(kan)，保能(neng)(neng)源安(an)全(quan)(quan)集中于(yu)地(di)緣(yuan)政(zheng)(zheng)治動(dong)蕩導致的海(hai)上戰略(lve)通道(dao)安(an)全(quan)(quan)。中長期看(kan)，保能(neng)(neng)源安(an)全(quan)(quan)核(he)心是降(jiang)低油氣(qi)(qi)(qi)對(dui)外采(cai)買(mai)，2023年我國(guo)石油、天然氣(qi)(qi)(qi)年進口量分別(bie)超過5.7億噸(dun)和(he)1.2億噸(dun)，對(dui)外采(cai)買(mai)分別(bie)超過70%和(he)40%。推動(dong)能(neng)(neng)源發展電氣(qi)(qi)(qi)化是保障(zhang)國(guo)家(jia)能(neng)(neng)源安(an)全(quan)(quan)的戰略(lve)方(fang)向，充分發揮我國(guo)新能(neng)(neng)源資源稟賦、技術和(he)產業(ye)優勢(shi)，有利于(yu)調(diao)整優化當前以油氣(qi)(qi)(qi)資源為基礎(chu)的能(neng)(neng)源地(di)緣(yuan)政(zheng)(zheng)治格局。國(guo)網能(neng)(neng)源研究院研究表明(ming)，若有效(xiao)推進電能(neng)(neng)替代油氣(qi)(qi)(qi)，供應側(ce)2030年新能(neng)(neng)源裝機每提高1億千瓦，預計(ji)可降(jiang)低油氣(qi)(qi)(qi)對(dui)外采(cai)買(mai)峰值0.8~1.1個百分點。

“十五五”及中長期電力需求將繼續保持較快增長，增速超過GDP增速，滿足巨大人口規模現代化帶來的巨大低碳能源消費需求成為巨大挑戰。

2023年(nian)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)需求增速(su)(su)6.7%，超過GDP增速(su)(su)1.5個百分點(dian)，2024年(nian)一(yi)季度全(quan)(quan)(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量2.34萬億千瓦(wa)時，同比(bi)增長(chang)9.8%。需求快(kuai)(kuai)速(su)(su)增長(chang)的(de)主要原因就是用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)結構發生(sheng)了深刻變化(hua)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)家鼓(gu)勵“新(xin)(xin)三樣”、人工智能、綠電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)制氫等戰新(xin)(xin)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)、未(wei)來產(chan)(chan)業(ye)屬(shu)于“高耗電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”產(chan)(chan)業(ye)，將(jiang)在“十(shi)五五”期(qi)間繼續(xu)(xu)保(bao)持高速(su)(su)增長(chang)，推動我國(guo)(guo)(guo)經濟持續(xu)(xu)平穩(wen)增長(chang)，加上終端(duan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)水平持續(xu)(xu)提升，預(yu)計2030年(nian)全(quan)(quan)(quan)國(guo)(guo)(guo)全(quan)(quan)(quan)社會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量為13萬億～13.7萬億千瓦(wa)時，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)彈性(xing)(xing)系數(shu)在1.0～1.2。預(yu)計用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量快(kuai)(kuai)速(su)(su)增長(chang)背景下(xia)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應區域性(xing)(xing)、時段性(xing)(xing)緊張可(ke)能成為常態化(hua)風險，必須(xu)創新(xin)(xin)解(jie)決(jue)人口規模巨大的(de)現代(dai)化(hua)所帶來的(de)能源消費剛(gang)性(xing)(xing)增長(chang)需求、生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)要素(su)保(bao)障的(de)嚴峻挑戰。

大規模發展新能源是未來電力供給側改革的重中之重，需要高度重視和有效防范結構性極端性時段性局部缺電風險，確保“有效容量”兜底保障能力，構建多元化清潔能源供應體系。

綜合考慮保(bao)(bao)供(gong)(gong)(gong)、消(xiao)納、產業發(fa)展需求及系(xi)(xi)統(tong)成(cheng)本變化趨勢，依托國(guo)網能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)研(yan)究院自主研(yan)發(fa)的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)規劃軟件GESP測(ce)算(suan)，到(dao)2030年(nian)(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機總規模(mo)將(jiang)達(da)到(dao)50億千(qian)瓦(wa)以(yi)(yi)上(shang)，其中新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機26億千(qian)瓦(wa)以(yi)(yi)上(shang)。要(yao)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)如此高比例新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)情(qing)(qing)況下(xia)做好(hao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應保(bao)(bao)障，必須通盤謀劃，堅持系(xi)(xi)統(tong)思維。一(yi)(yi)方面重點解決新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)“立”的(de)(de)(de)問題，發(fa)揮新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)保(bao)(bao)供(gong)(gong)(gong)增供(gong)(gong)(gong)方面的(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)用(yong)(yong)。近年(nian)(nian)來，新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)出力(li)低于(yu)15%的(de)(de)(de)時(shi)(shi)長約(yue)占全年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)一(yi)(yi)半(ban)，風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)參(can)與平(ping)衡能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)約(yue)為裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機容(rong)量的(de)(de)(de)5%~15%，光伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)全國(guo)大(da)(da)(da)(da)部分地區(qu)參(can)與平(ping)衡能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)為0。尤其是連續多天(tian)出現(xian)無光無風氣象(xiang)條件時(shi)(shi)，新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)長時(shi)(shi)間(jian)低出力(li)將(jiang)造(zao)成(cheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應可靠性大(da)(da)(da)(da)幅下(xia)降(jiang)甚至出現(xian)缺(que)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。另一(yi)(yi)方面要(yao)重視(shi)傳統(tong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)兜底保(bao)(bao)障作(zuo)用(yong)(yong)和(he)新(xin)(xin)(xin)型儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等新(xin)(xin)(xin)技術保(bao)(bao)供(gong)(gong)(gong)作(zuo)用(yong)(yong)。立足我國(guo)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)以(yi)(yi)煤為基(ji)礎、國(guo)內(nei)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應為主的(de)(de)(de)基(ji)本國(guo)情(qing)(qing)，應統(tong)籌協調(diao)發(fa)展和(he)利用(yong)(yong)好(hao)各類能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，構建新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、煤炭、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等多類型能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)協同互補(bu)的(de)(de)(de)多元(yuan)清潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應體系(xi)(xi)。對于(yu)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)來說，2030年(nian)(nian)前仍以(yi)(yi)短時(shi)(shi)日(ri)調(diao)節儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)為主，在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)缺(que)口(kou)較大(da)(da)(da)(da)時(shi)(shi)存在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)保(bao)(bao)供(gong)(gong)(gong)飽和(he)效應，根據測(ce)算(suan)，一(yi)(yi)般缺(que)口(kou)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)最(zui)(zui)大(da)(da)(da)(da)負(fu)荷10%以(yi)(yi)內(nei)時(shi)(shi)，儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)平(ping)衡系(xi)(xi)數為0.9~1；缺(que)口(kou)在(zai)(zai)(zai)(zai)最(zui)(zui)大(da)(da)(da)(da)負(fu)荷10%~25%范圍時(shi)(shi)，儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)平(ping)衡系(xi)(xi)數為0.4~0.9；缺(que)口(kou)超(chao)過最(zui)(zui)大(da)(da)(da)(da)負(fu)荷25%時(shi)(shi)，需要(yao)先配置(zhi)其他(ta)保(bao)(bao)供(gong)(gong)(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，最(zui)(zui)后考慮儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)。同時(shi)(shi)也要(yao)充分挖掘需求側(ce)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)潛力(li)，保(bao)(bao)障電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)安(an)全可靠供(gong)(gong)(gong)應。

新能源消納的壓力快速提升，連續多年維持的高利用率今年面臨下行拐點，要充分提升和挖掘系統調節能力，樹立合理利用率理念，因地制宜推動新能源高效消納。

2024年一(yi)季(ji)度(du)全(quan)國(guo)(guo)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)風光利(li)用率約為(wei)96%，均(jun)同(tong)比(bi)下(xia)(xia)降。國(guo)(guo)網能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)研(yan)究院(yuan)測算，預(yu)計2030年全(quan)國(guo)(guo)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)利(li)用率將(jiang)下(xia)(xia)降到(dao)90%以下(xia)(xia)。隨著新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)占比(bi)上(shang)升(sheng)，各類促(cu)進(jin)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)納(na)措施的實(shi)施效果“邊際(ji)遞減”，繼續(xu)維持高(gao)(gao)利(li)用率，從技術(shu)和(he)成本上(shang)都存在巨大挑戰。一(yi)方面(mian)，國(guo)(guo)網能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)研(yan)究院(yuan)從全(quan)社會電力供應成本角度(du)出發(fa)(fa)，多(duo)年來一(yi)直提倡樹立新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)合(he)理利(li)用率理念，即結(jie)合(he)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)稟賦和(he)系統消(xiao)納(na)條件，適度(du)降低新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)利(li)用率水(shui)平(ping)(ping)有(you)利(li)于(yu)擴大未來發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)空間提高(gao)(gao)系統經濟性，助力新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)高(gao)(gao)質量發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)。另一(yi)方面(mian)，優化(hua)(hua)(hua)調整新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結(jie)構(gou)和(he)布局十分(fen)重(zhong)要，當前新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)增(zeng)風光裝機比(bi)重(zhong)約1:4，按(an)此趨勢發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)午(wu)間消(xiao)納(na)問題(ti)難以解決，跨區調節(jie)互濟也(ye)面(mian)臨送受端特(te)性趨同(tong)現象。高(gao)(gao)度(du)重(zhong)視“就近平(ping)(ping)衡(heng)”，優先發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)具有(you)“兩自四化(hua)(hua)(hua)”（自平(ping)(ping)衡(heng)、自安(an)全(quan)，小(xiao)微(wei)化(hua)(hua)(hua)、綠(lv)色化(hua)(hua)(hua)、數智化(hua)(hua)(hua)、共(gong)享化(hua)(hua)(hua)）特(te)征(zheng)的自治型分(fen)布式新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系統，與廣域大系統深度(du)共(gong)融發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)。此外，在“三北(bei)”地區加快推進(jin)光熱電站(zhan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)、盡快實(shi)現規模化(hua)(hua)(hua)，提升(sheng)競爭力。

發展新質生產力是黨中央的重要要求，要準確把握適應新型電力系統的關鍵技術創新，以系統思維一體化謀劃電力發展與技術創新布局，加快培育現代能源產業體系。

隨著“雙(shuang)碳”目標的縱深推進(jin)，技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)創新(xin)(xin)(xin)面(mian)臨四(si)方面(mian)重(zhong)(zhong)大需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)。能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安全(quan)供給方面(mian)，要持續突(tu)破(po)新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)高(gao)效(xiao)低(di)成本(ben)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)，同時煤(mei)炭在(zai)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)安全(quan)保(bao)障的壓艙(cang)石(shi)和(he)(he)穩定(ding)器定(ding)位在(zai)短(duan)期(qi)內不(bu)會發(fa)(fa)生根本(ben)性改變，預計2030年、2060年煤(mei)炭占一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)比重(zhong)(zhong)分(fen)別為(wei)44%和(he)(he)7%左右，迫(po)(po)切(qie)需(xu)(xu)(xu)要實現其清(qing)潔(jie)高(gao)效(xiao)利用(yong)(yong)。能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)配置(zhi)模式(shi)方面(mian)，電(dian)網作為(wei)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)關(guan)鍵基礎設(she)施，迫(po)(po)切(qie)需(xu)(xu)(xu)要適應“沙(sha)戈荒”基地化(hua)開發(fa)(fa)等(deng)不(bu)同類型和(he)(he)開發(fa)(fa)模式(shi)的可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)大規模廣泛接入。顛覆性能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)利用(yong)(yong)方面(mian)，氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)是解決(jue)難以減排領域的重(zhong)(zhong)要手段，也是能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)體系(xi)長(chang)(chang)周期(qi)平衡的重(zhong)(zhong)要載體，發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)已(yi)成為(wei)世(shi)界(jie)共(gong)識，預計2060年，氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)端(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)的比重(zhong)(zhong)將達(da)到15%，迫(po)(po)切(qie)需(xu)(xu)(xu)要實現經濟性目標下(xia)氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)與可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)全(quan)環節(jie)一體化(hua)融(rong)合(he)。此外，從能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)定(ding)位看，除了保(bao)障工業、民生等(deng)基本(ben)用(yong)(yong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)，我(wo)國(guo)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)還承(cheng)擔著空間探索等(deng)動力保(bao)障重(zhong)(zhong)任(ren)，迫(po)(po)切(qie)需(xu)(xu)(xu)要突(tu)破(po)模塊化(hua)小型堆等(deng)新(xin)(xin)(xin)型核電(dian)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)。這些系(xi)統性科技(ji)(ji)創新(xin)(xin)(xin)需(xu)(xu)(xu)要立(li)足(zu)長(chang)(chang)周期(qi)視(shi)角，將新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)高(gao)質量(liang)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)與科技(ji)(ji)創新(xin)(xin)(xin)和(he)(he)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業轉(zhuan)型升(sheng)(sheng)級相(xiang)結合(he)，系(xi)統性培(pei)(pei)育和(he)(he)謀(mou)劃顛覆性技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)及(ji)其相(xiang)關(guan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業，并(bing)要著眼構建(jian)新(xin)(xin)(xin)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)格(ge)局和(he)(he)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)新(xin)(xin)(xin)質生產(chan)(chan)(chan)力，發(fa)(fa)揮新(xin)(xin)(xin)型舉國(guo)體制優(you)勢，加(jia)強關(guan)鍵核心(xin)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)聯(lian)(lian)合(he)攻(gong)關(guan)，強化(hua)科研成果轉(zhuan)化(hua)運(yun)用(yong)(yong)，把能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)及(ji)其關(guan)聯(lian)(lian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業培(pei)(pei)育成帶動我(wo)國(guo)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業升(sheng)(sheng)級的新(xin)(xin)(xin)增長(chang)(chang)點(dian)，促進(jin)新(xin)(xin)(xin)質生產(chan)(chan)(chan)力發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)。

著力破解發展不平衡不充分問題已成為規劃的關鍵變量。

有必要加(jia)強對能(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)力(li)規(gui)(gui)劃與產(chan)(chan)業(ye)規(gui)(gui)劃協調(diao)性研究(jiu)，重點加(jia)強以(yi)(yi)地(di)區間產(chan)(chan)業(ye)轉移協同(tong)(tong)推進(jin)新能(neng)源(yuan)生產(chan)(chan)布局(ju)優化，即“西(xi)(xi)電(dian)西(xi)(xi)用，產(chan)(chan)業(ye)西(xi)(xi)移”。區域協同(tong)(tong)發展戰略下(xia)用電(dian)需(xu)求增(zeng)長潛力(li)向中西(xi)(xi)部(bu)和(he)東北轉移，這將帶動發輸配用整體規(gui)(gui)劃布局(ju)調(diao)整。據測(ce)算(suan)，新能(neng)源(yuan)每投(tou)資100億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)，可提高社會總產(chan)(chan)出約為300億(yi)~400億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)，貢獻(xian)GDP約80億(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)。未來(lai)需(xu)要結合(he)資源(yuan)和(he)市(shi)場優勢，以(yi)(yi)增(zeng)量產(chan)(chan)業(ye)布局(ju)為重點，探索新的產(chan)(chan)業(ye)轉移模式(shi)。以(yi)(yi)新能(neng)源(yuan)為代表的新型(xing)電(dian)力(li)系統產(chan)(chan)業(ye)鏈在西(xi)(xi)部(bu)地(di)區布局(ju)可以(yi)(yi)有效解決西(xi)(xi)部(bu)地(di)區產(chan)(chan)業(ye)發展困(kun)境，同(tong)(tong)時促進(jin)西(xi)(xi)部(bu)新能(neng)源(yuan)大規(gui)(gui)模就地(di)消納。“十五五”是新能(neng)源(yuan)相關產(chan)(chan)業(ye)規(gui)(gui)劃布局(ju)的關鍵窗(chuang)口期(qi)，需(xu)要把(ba)握(wo)時間窗(chuang)口，做(zuo)好(hao)新能(neng)源(yuan)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)發展的頂(ding)層設計(ji)和(he)相關配套協同(tong)(tong)。

電力行業碳達峰時間關乎全局，宜從全社會的經濟、安全、產業等角度統籌看待電力及各行業達峰時序。

社會各(ge)方對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)達峰(feng)(feng)時序存在不同(tong)意見。對(dui)我國(guo)來說(shuo)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)碳(tan)排放達峰(feng)(feng)問(wen)題的(de)本(ben)質是(shi)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量的(de)達峰(feng)(feng)時間和峰(feng)(feng)值，需(xu)要(yao)從全社會層面統籌謀劃(hua)，明確(que)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)、交通、建筑、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)等(deng)各(ge)部門碳(tan)達峰(feng)(feng)時間表，以(yi)保障我國(guo)積極穩妥在2030年(nian)前實現碳(tan)達峰(feng)(feng)。綜合研判，若(ruo)要(yao)實現2030年(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)與全社會同(tong)步達峰(feng)(feng)，可(ke)能面臨電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應成本(ben)提升、極端天氣下電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)保供風險(xian)增加、新能源利用率大幅(fu)下降等(deng)一(yi)系列風險(xian)，需(xu)要(yao)提前做(zuo)好風險(xian)應對(dui)預案或考慮(lv)“十六五(wu)”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)達峰(feng)(feng)的(de)可(ke)行(xing)性。

習近平總書記在今年2月的中共中央政治局第十二次(ci)集體學習時(shi)強調，“我國能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)展仍面臨需求壓力(li)(li)(li)(li)巨大、供(gong)給制約較多、綠(lv)色(se)低(di)碳轉(zhuan)型(xing)任(ren)務艱巨等一系列挑(tiao)戰。應對這些挑(tiao)戰，出路(lu)就(jiu)是大力(li)(li)(li)(li)發(fa)展新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)。”深入實施能(neng)源(yuan)安全新(xin)戰略，需要更(geng)大力(li)(li)(li)(li)度推(tui)動(dong)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)高質量發(fa)展，要堅(jian)持問題導(dao)向和系統觀(guan)念，統籌發(fa)展與安全、統籌保(bao)供(gong)與轉(zhuan)型(xing)，“源(yuan)網荷(he)儲碳數智治鏈(lian)”協同發(fa)力(li)(li)(li)(li)，加強科技驅動(dong)、市場帶動(dong)、政策聯動(dong)，加快構建(jian)清潔低(di)碳、安全充(chong)裕、經濟高效、供(gong)需協同、靈活智能(neng)的新(xin)型(xing)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)系統，為推(tui)進(jin)中國式現代化提供(gong)能(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)支撐。