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概要：基于全壽命周期成本理論，計算了各類儲能裝置的成本和度電成本，研究表明抽水蓄能電站度電成本最低，其次是壓縮空氣儲能，電池類儲能度電成本最高，其中電池類儲能度電成本由低到高依次為鋰離子電池、液流電池、鈉硫電池和鉛酸電池。近幾年鋰離子電池成本下降較快，未來鋰離子電池成本進一步下降后，初步測算儲能年利用小時數能夠達到１５００ｈ以上，度電成本將低于０.５０元／（ｋＷ·ｈ）。

分析如下：

對幾種典型儲(chu)能電站的度電成本進行測算，比較各類儲(chu)能設(she)備(bei)(bei)的經濟性，考慮的儲(chu)能設(she)備(bei)(bei)包括抽水蓄(xu)能電站，壓縮(suo)空氣(qi)儲(chu)能、鉛酸電池(chi)、鈉(na)硫電池(chi)、液流電池(chi)、鋰離(li)子電池(chi)，其基本參數見表１。

表１儲能電站參數

以(yi)目前較為(wei)成(cheng)熟的抽蓄電(dian)站為(wei)基準(zhun)，儲(chu)能裝機(ji)按(an)１２００ＭＷ，儲(chu)能時長按(an)６ｈ，計算(suan)中(zhong)電(dian)池使用壽(shou)命暫按(an)儲(chu)能放電(dian)深度８０％情(qing)況(kuang)下，１年循環３００次，液流電(dian)池循環次數達１２０００次以(yi)上，計算(suan)中(zhong)按(an)２０年計列。

儲(chu)能電(dian)站投資如表(biao)２所示，儲(chu)能電(dian)站度電(dian)成(cheng)本測(ce)算(suan)結果見表(biao)３和圖(tu)１，可以(yi)看出：

（１）按上述參(can)數(shu)計算，抽(chou)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站的度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成本最低，其(qi)次(ci)是壓縮空氣，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池類儲能度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成本最高，其(qi)中(zhong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池類儲能度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成本由低到高依(yi)次(ci)為(wei)鋰離子電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池、液流(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池、鈉硫電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池和鉛酸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池。

（２）若儲(chu)(chu)能電站的儲(chu)(chu)能利用(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數(shu)達到１０００ｈ，抽蓄電站儲(chu)(chu)能度電成本(ben)(ben)(ben)低于１元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），約(yue)(yue)(yue)０．９３元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），壓縮空(kong)氣儲(chu)(chu)能度電成本(ben)(ben)(ben)約(yue)(yue)(yue)１．８５元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），鋰離(li)子電池(chi)儲(chu)(chu)能度電成本(ben)(ben)(ben)約(yue)(yue)(yue)２．０４元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ）；若儲(chu)(chu)能電站的儲(chu)(chu)能利用(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數(shu)達到２０００ｈ，抽蓄電站儲(chu)(chu)能度電成本(ben)(ben)(ben)低于０．５元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），約(yue)(yue)(yue)０．４６元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），壓縮空(kong)氣儲(chu)(chu)能度電成本(ben)(ben)(ben)低于１元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），約(yue)(yue)(yue)０．９２元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），鋰離(li)子電池(chi)儲(chu)(chu)能度電成本(ben)(ben)(ben)降低至(zhi)約(yue)(yue)(yue)１．０２元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ）。

表２各類儲(chu)能電(dian)站的投資比較

表３各類儲能電站的年(nian)發電量和度電成(cheng)本

圖１儲能電(dian)站度電(dian)成(cheng)本曲線(xian)

表４各(ge)類儲能電(dian)站(zhan)的年發電(dian)量和度電(dian)成本（敏感性分(fen)析）

圖２儲能電站度電成本曲線（敏感性分析(xi)）

對除抽(chou)蓄電(dian)站外的其他儲能(neng)型式相(xiang)關(guan)參數進行敏感性分析，若(ruo)未來(lai)壓縮空氣單(dan)位(wei)投(tou)資降(jiang)低至與抽(chou)蓄電(dian)站投(tou)資相(xiang)當，電(dian)能(neng)轉(zhuan)換(huan)效(xiao)率提高至６５％；電(dian)池類(lei)儲能(neng)的單(dan)位(wei)投(tou)資降(jiang)低５０％，鋰離子電(dian)池循環壽命(ming)達到５０００次，儲能(neng)電(dian)站的度電(dian)成本測算結果(guo)見表４和圖(tu)２。可(ke)以看(kan)出：

（１）按(an)上(shang)述參數計算，抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)電(dian)站和(he)(he)壓縮(suo)(suo)空(kong)氣(qi)的度電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)基本(ben)相當，主(zhu)要原因是壓縮(suo)(suo)空(kong)氣(qi)建(jian)設期較短導(dao)致年費用較低，電(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)類(lei)儲(chu)能(neng)度電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)最高(gao)，其中(zhong)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)類(lei)儲(chu)能(neng)度電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)由(you)低到高(gao)依次為鋰離子電(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)、液流電(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)、鈉硫電(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)和(he)(he)鉛(qian)酸電(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)。

（２）若儲(chu)能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)的儲(chu)能(neng)利用小(xiao)時數達到(dao)１０００ｈ，壓(ya)縮(suo)空氣(qi)儲(chu)能(neng)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)低(di)(di)于(yu)１元(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），約(yue)０．８８元(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），鋰離子電(dian)(dian)(dian)池儲(chu)能(neng)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)約(yue)０．７９元(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ）；若儲(chu)能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)的儲(chu)能(neng)利用小(xiao)時數達到(dao)２０００ｈ，壓(ya)縮(suo)空氣(qi)儲(chu)能(neng)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)低(di)(di)于(yu)０．５元(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），約(yue)０．４４元(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），鋰離子電(dian)(dian)(dian)池儲(chu)能(neng)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)低(di)(di)于(yu)０．５元(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ），約(yue)０．３９元(yuan)／（ｋＷ·ｈ）。

需要說明的是，儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)應(ying)用(yong)(yong)于(yu)不同(tong)場景，運用(yong)(yong)方式也不一樣，對于(yu)目前應(ying)用(yong)(yong)較(jiao)(jiao)多的用(yong)(yong)戶側(ce)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)來說，由于(yu)負(fu)荷曲(qu)線(xian)基(ji)本(ben)固定，儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)運行方式明確，每天可(ke)以按(an)照基(ji)本(ben)相同(tong)策(ce)略運行，利用(yong)(yong)效率(lv)比較(jiao)(jiao)高，東部部分地區儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)年(nian)利用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時數(shu)在２０００ｈ左右，儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)度電(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)相對較(jiao)(jiao)低(di)，再加上峰谷電(dian)價差相對較(jiao)(jiao)高，儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)存(cun)在盈利空間；但對于(yu)發電(dian)側(ce)儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)應(ying)用(yong)(yong)與減少新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源棄電(dian)場景，由于(yu)棄電(dian)不是每天都會(hui)發生(sheng)，棄電(dian)大小(xiao)也不一樣，所以儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)應(ying)用(yong)(yong)于(yu)此(ci)場景，利率(lv)用(yong)(yong)明顯較(jiao)(jiao)低(di)，初步(bu)測算，西北區域儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)應(ying)用(yong)(yong)年(nian)利用(yong)(yong)小(xiao)時數(shu)在１０００ｈ左右，所以儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)度電(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)明顯較(jiao)(jiao)高，儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)盈利模式尚(shang)需進一步(bu)研究。