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6月19日(ri)，國(guo)(guo)家能源局原局長張國(guo)(guo)寶對(dui)網絡上“未來(lai)三年全(quan)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)力供需全(quan)面趨(qu)緊(jin)”的說法(fa)發(fa)表了看法(fa)，表示未來(lai)三年不會出現(xian)電(dian)力緊(jin)張的狀(zhuang)況。本文整理(li)張國(guo)(guo)寶發(fa)言如下：

6月18日(ri)，中國(guo)能源報官方微信刊發(fa)《中國(guo)電力發(fa)展報告：未(wei)(wei)來三年全(quan)(quan)國(guo)電力供需形勢全(quan)(quan)面趨緊》一(yi)文，我個人認為未(wei)(wei)必如此。

未來三年(nian)(nian)，一些高耗能(neng)產業，比如鋼鐵、有色(se)、建材，都處于下行通道。而且現(xian)在(zai)(zai)電力裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量的容余度太(tai)大，近(jin)幾年(nian)(nian)各地建設的電站(zhan)還(huan)在(zai)(zai)陸續投產中，發揮現(xian)在(zai)(zai)電站(zhan)1/4的閑置能(neng)力是完全有可能(neng)的。依我看(kan)，未來三年(nian)(nian)，如果能(neng)夠把(ba)現(xian)在(zai)(zai)多(duo)余的裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量消化掉就不(bu)錯(cuo)了。不(bu)會出現(xian)電力緊張的狀(zhuang)況(kuang)。

過(guo)去兩年，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)的增速一直高于發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的增速，估計(ji)今(jin)明兩年仍將如(ru)此(ci)。也(ye)就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)說，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站裝(zhuang)機(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)的富(fu)裕度不(bu)(bu)(bu)是(shi)(shi)在(zai)縮(suo)小(xiao)，而是(shi)(shi)在(zai)擴(kuo)大(da)，居民用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和商業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的增加趕(gan)不(bu)(bu)(bu)上工業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)大(da)戶用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的減少。而電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽車用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)占比不(bu)(bu)(bu)足(zu)0.25%，幾乎可以忽略不(bu)(bu)(bu)計(ji)。與(yu)此(ci)同時，這幾年還將有(you)一批核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站投入運行，現在(zai)核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站也(ye)在(zai)壓負荷運行，所以依我看，三年后不(bu)(bu)(bu)是(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力緊張，而是(shi)(shi)應擔心電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力的富(fu)裕度越(yue)來(lai)越(yue)大(da)，影響電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力企(qi)業(ye)的效(xiao)益。

報告(gao)有誤導各地(di)再去搶建一(yi)批電站之嫌。現在火力(li)發電廠年發電小時(shi)數(shu)只有4000多(duo)小時(shi)，影響(xiang)了(le)電力(li)企業的效益，實(shi)際上(shang)完全可以發到(dao)5500小時(shi)甚至于(yu)6000小時(shi)，除非煤(mei)炭(tan)供(gong)應不上(shang)。

尤其是報告中(zhong)提到“全國16個省份(fen)需要增加電源供(gong)給，及時啟動一批火電項(xiang)目前(qian)期工(gong)作”，可(ke)能(neng)會導致(zhi)新一輪電力(li)產能(neng)過剩，而(er)歷時三(san)年多的嚴控(kong)煤電產能(neng)一旦有(you)所“松綁”，可(ke)能(neng)會再(zai)次出現煤電建設潮。假如分析(xi)預測害(hai)了電力(li)企業，屆時電力(li)企業的經濟效益下降找誰說理去？